A new and better FBS thread

[BigHorns]

This would be driven solely by the MW schools who wish to avoid exit fees. The AAC and the Pac would not have to be working together to make this happen. AFA has wanted to go to the AAC for years. UNLV is not tied to Nevada and will be added to the Pac, maybe as soon as this week.

That leaves just 5 full members of the MW and football only Hawaii.

Wyoming
New Mexico
USU
Nevada
SJSU

Say the Pac grabs 4 from the AAC who then backfills with Wyoming, New Mexico and maybe USU.

That leaves NV, SJSU and Hawaii. The departing schools vote to dissolve. Nobody has to collude to get to that point.

I think this may be the most likely outcome.

I'd give this scenario overall less than a 5% chance.

AFA -> AAC could happen, and AAC has a warchest from past exits to finance that if needed. Comes down to whether or not AAC overall wants them. I'd say 60-70% odds on that piece occuring.

UNLV may also be desirable enough for PAC to take them. Nevada goes as a bundle if either politics force it, or PAC gets desperate.

PAC is also rumored to be talking with at least Memphis and Tulane, who are seen as two of the stronger AAC schools. Outside of AFA, the AAC would primarily be looking to backfill with SBC and CUSA schools in their region. Some not mentioned frequently that could be AAC candidates include schools like Louisiana, USM, WKU and MTSU. Supposedly WKU and MTSU in part turned down a MAC offer and stayed in CUSA to avoid a GoR and keep their path to AAC open. Those two were looked at by AAC and SBC previously in the last round of shuffling.

Given their publicly stated preferences, and other options, I don't see AAC looking westward beyond AFA. AFA is logical because it combines all the service academies under one roof, like collecting railroads in monopoly.

[BigHorns]

The concept of media markets is outdated. NDSU, SDSU and the Montana schools are the entire state for a media market. And for NDSU, 45% of students are from Minnesota. It's about national brands and rivalry games. Those 2 schools have some big time rivalries

Unfortunately, to date, the larger conferences have made nearly all of their decisions based on media markets.

I agree it's outdated, but for conferences like P4, PAC and AAC, that's really all they care about it seems. Even WSU and OSU, which have great brands got left behind in the PAC-2 because their media markets were too small for the P4.

This all filters down, and eventually the bigger markets like UNLV will be picked dry. That's what gives conferences like CUSA, and potentially MWC this round no choice but to start backfilling with FCS schools.

If there is one weakness we have, its location. I could see Sacramento St and UC Davis getting callups due to their location. My hope is MWC will have enough openings this round that they have no choice but to look in our direction also. We won't see interest from PAC or AAC, they simply have too many bigger fish/markets they can attract and pull from.

[KSBisonFan]

I'd give this scenario overall less than a 5% chance.

AFA -> AAC could happen, and AAC has a warchest from past exits to finance that if needed. Comes down to whether or not AAC overall wants them. I'd say 60-70% odds on that piece occuring.

UNLV may also be desirable enough for PAC to take them. Nevada goes as a bundle if either politics force it, or PAC gets desperate.

PAC is also rumored to be talking with at least Memphis and Tulane, who are seen as two of the stronger AAC schools. Outside of AFA, the AAC would primarily be looking to backfill with SBC and CUSA schools in their region. Some not mentioned frequently that could be AAC candidates include schools like Louisiana, USM, WKU and MTSU. Supposedly WKU and MTSU in part turned down a MAC offer and stayed in CUSA to avoid a GoR and keep their path to AAC open. Those two were looked at by AAC and SBC previously in the last round of shuffling.

Given their publicly stated preferences, and other options, I don't see AAC looking westward beyond AFA. AFA is logical because it combines all the service academies under one roof, like collecting railroads in monopoly.

The whole UNLV and Nevada dynamic is confusing. I've see multiple sources say they are attached, and others say they can each move independently. Not sure what to believe.
Maybe Chapo could ask during his next call with the MWC commissioner.

[EC8CH]

The whole UNLV and Nevada dynamic is confusing. I've see multiple sources say they are attached, and others say they can each move independently. Not sure what to believe.
Maybe Chapo could ask during his next call with the MWC commissioner.

How old is the MW commish's mom? Does Chapo have her number?

[MWC]

The whole UNLV and Nevada dynamic is confusing. I've see multiple sources say they are attached, and others say they can each move independently. Not sure what to believe.
Maybe Chapo could ask during his next call with the MWC commissioner.

Nevada and UNLV have never been attached before. Both have been in separate conferences for almost their entire history. UNLV is free to go alone.

[Professor Chaos]

I think what gets lost in the conversation about media markets is having a large population base near your school plays more into your favor than just media markets - it also helps attract a conference's member schools that are interested in getting into a lucrative recruiting territory in terms of prospective students (and prospective student-athletes for the coaches).

[KSBisonFan]

Nevada and UNLV have never been attached before. Both have been in separate conferences for almost their entire history. UNLV is free to go alone.

I believe you. Multiple podcasts and articles are running with the 'attached' angle.

I did read that UNLV has the lowest viewership of any MWC school, which may be the reason the 6PAC isn't jumping on inviting them.

[MWC]

UNLV may well be in the Pac before too long but there are a few reasons why it may not happen. Adding the 4 MW schools triggers poaching fees of 43 million bucks. Adding UNLV boosts that to 54 million. Adding schools from other conferences does not come attached with a poaching fee. The MW has the highest exit fees in G5. OSU and WAZZU are probably going to help pay some of that for the 4 schools they have now but they may not be willing to do that for UNLV right now. UNLV has a fine football team right now but there history in football is dismal. If and when they lose their coach to a better job somewhere, there will certainly be uncertainty going forward.

[Twentysix]

I just read that the pac has started a 2nd round of negotiations with tulane and memphis.

Which means 2 things: 1) the pac REALLY wants tulane and memphis; and 2) tulane and memphis did not say yes when approached by the pac. Which suggests that sober G5 schools also see the PAC as a G5 (G6 I guess).

Also read that AFA and UNLV are expected to leave the mwc. Which probably means they are deep in the negotiation weeds and nearly have agreed to a deal.

Also read that the pac is negotiating with or preparing to negotiate with other programs that are yet to be named.

I dont think dissolving the mwc is on the table, sonce these teams are leaving in chunks. The ones that announce a move have lost voting rights as soon as a single team challenges them. The mwc controls a large pot of money now, and whoever is leftout will sue to keep it. Basically 0% chance the mwc ceases to exist.

[MWC]

I just read that the pac has started a 2nd round of negotiations with tulane and memphis.

Which means 2 things: 1) the pac REALLY wants tulane and memphis; and 2) tulane and memphis did not say yes when approached by the pac.

Also read that AFA and UNLV are expected to leave the mwc. Which probably means they are deep in the negotiation weeds and nearly have agreed to a deal.

Also read that the pac is negotiating with or preparing to negotiate with other programs that are yet to be named.

I dont think dissolving the mwc is on the table, sonce these teams are leaving in chunks. The ones that announce a move have lost voting rights as soon as a single team challenges them. The mwc controls a large pot of money now, and whoever is leftout will sue to keep it. Basically 0% chance the mwc ceases to exist.

I would agree..I think the MW will carry on. However, at the moment it no longer requires 9 votes to dissolve. It is just 75 percent of the voting members. It would 6 right now. If AFA and UNLV leave it would be down to 4. Once those 4 collect their dough all bets are off.

Rumors as collating around Texas State, UTEP and SAC State as possible adds now. They will become voting members once they sign the dotted line..They certainly would not vote to dissolve a conference they just joined.