A new and better FBS thread

[taper]

The MW does not have to do anything for 2 years. They can also get an additional 2 years with a waiver from the NCAA like the Pac 2 got. Lots of things can shake out all over the country by 2028. The clock is ticking very very very slowly. Maybe the Belt poaches some AAC schools. Maybe CUSA poaches some MW schools. Nothing has to make sense anymore..

Point of order, PAC did not(yet) get a waiver. NCAA bylaws have an automatic 2 year grace period if a conference drops below required membership. PAC remains a conference but lost all their autobids and did not get a waiver on that.
The Summit League *did* get a waiver on top of the 2 year grace period awhile back, although we already had a new member signed to join the next year. If PAC can't get to 8+ by 2026 they may or may not get the same.

[MWC]

Point of order, PAC did not(yet) get a waiver. NCAA bylaws have an automatic 2 year grace period if a conference drops below required membership. PAC remains a conference but lost all their autobids and did not get a waiver on that.
The Summit League *did* get a waiver on top of the 2 year grace period awhile back, although we already had a new member signed to join the next year. If PAC can't get to 8+ by 2026 they may or may not get the same.

I stand corrected..Thanks

[scottietohottie]

It ain't official until he's free bros.

[HerdBot]

I think UNLV (Pac) and AFA (AAC) will be gone soon. The leftovers would be at 6 football schools but only 5 full time members. They have 4 years to figure something out. The departing schools will still be here until fall of 26. Whatever is left can get a 2 year grace period to rebuild to 8 if they choose. They will have pretty much milked the poaching and exit fees dry by then. But.....

Would any school want to join that? Would FCS schools want to pay the 5 million, plus the additional costs to join that? NMSU and UTEP are in a far more stable situation. Why would they give that up for a dead man walking conference?

There can't be two G5 level conferences in the West. It just doesn't work.

Certainly the conference could pay the entrance fees. The only thing good is they will be sitting on a stockpile of money from buyouts

I think ultimately they add New Mexico State and UTEP. Not a tremendous conference but it's a starting point

The longer they wait, the more cold feet teams will get

I guarantee most teams would pick the PAC 12, including NDSU

Although the only stability Conference USA has is numbers. UTEP and New Mexico State have no business playing in CUSA. They fit better. If they go, Sam Houston will go. Then CUSA is down to 9 and MWC is at 8. Add NDSU and SDSU and it's 10

Another weird advantage NDSU has is time zone. That has value with game start times

[MWC]

Certainly the conference could pay the entrance fees. The only thing good is they will be sitting on a stockpile of money from buyouts

I think ultimately they add New Mexico State and UTEP. Not a tremendous conference but it's a starting point

The longer they wait, the more cold feet teams will get

I guarantee most teams would pick the PAC 12, including NDSU

Although the only stability Conference USA has is numbers. UTEP and New Mexico State have no business playing in CUSA. They fit better. If they go, Sam Houston will go. Then CUSA is down to 9 and MWC is at 8. Add NDSU and SDSU and it's 10

Another weird advantage NDSU has is time zone. That has value with game start times

UTEP and NMSU seem like frontrunners but until this thing plays out a bit I would not take that to the bank. Things are fluid at the moment.

[NDSUstudent]

There can't be two G5 level conferences in the West. It just doesn't work.

There was once the PAC, MWC and WAC....pretty sure the western half of the US is big enough for the PAC whatever and the MWC. I feel like the upper level being splintered across multipel conferences is really to the benefit of western G5 conferences.

The MWC needs to look at the landscape and lean heavily into quality football schools like the Sun Belt did. All of those schools are there for the taking...NDSU, SDSU, Montana and Montana State. It can be a western Sun Belt if it so choses. App State, GSU and JMU were not exactly big market schools either, they all are quality football programs though.

[MWC]

There was once the PAC, MWC and WAC....pretty sure the western half of the US is big enough for the PAC whatever and the MWC. I feel like the upper level being splintered across multipel conferences is really to the benefit of western G5 conferences.

The MWC needs to look at the landscape and lean heavily into quality football schools like the Sun Belt did. All of those schools are there for the taking...NDSU, SDSU, Montana and Montana State. It can be a western Sun Belt if it so choses. App State, GSU and JMU were not exactly big market schools either, they all are quality football programs though.

I think they will look for good football schools. I am not sure how many replacements they will need.

[EP NDSU Fan]

I think they will look for good football schools. I am not sure how many replacements they will need.

What do you think the next media deal for the MWC is going to look like? I think it’s up in 2026 but the PAC is out to bid before hand. I’ve seen Sun Belt estimates of $7m a year in total. If it gets into that range does NDSU become a net positive?


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[MWC]

What do you think the next media deal for the MWC is going to look like? I think it’s up in 2026 but the PAC is out to bid before hand. I’ve seen Sun Belt estimates of $7m a year in total. If it gets into that range does NDSU become a net positive?


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My guess and it is just a guess, it will be about the same as it is now though probably a bit less. They get 45 million a year from Fox and CBS. They added a deal from trutv for this season which adds a bit. The Pac 2 gave them 14 million for the scheduling deal. There are a lot of basketball credits in the bank. I would guess the total distribution will be around 8 million per school this year. Hawaii gets far less. If I understand correctly, the 4 defectors will not receive their distribution for this year and next. A big chunk of that will spread out to the remainders.

The schools whom remain are going to get a whole lot of cash with the poaching fees and the exit fees. If they are smart all the schools will have enough money to thrive for quite awhile.

The conference may use some of the money to add a school or 2 but those schools will not get a dime from the defector windfall..Most of the remaining schools already have a 50 million dollar budget and they will be quite flush. That is certainly the upside. I have been pointing out some possible doom and gloom scenarios but I actually think the conference will be just fine.

[HerdBot]

I would point out the media markets for Sioux Falls, SD and Fargo, ND are bigger than Missoula or Bozeman. (yes, still nothing compared to major metro areas.....) Granted, all are state and/or land grant universities, so all 4 have wide appeal in their states.

The concept of media markets is outdated. NDSU, SDSU and the Montana schools are the entire state for a media market. And for NDSU, 45% of students are from Minnesota. It's about national brands and rivalry games. Those 2 schools have some big time rivalries

Also media markets only matter if you're on statewide TV. Cable Networks or streaming platforms arent local. How many fans do you have and do fans want to watch you play? There's a reason East Tennessee State set a record crowd vs NDSU by drawing 11k in a 7k seat capacity stadium