2015 Sagarin Says

[Honeybooboo]

You mean like seeing SDSU in our first game...been there done that.

SDSU first, UnI second, ISU third.....God for Bs

[NDSUSR]

I don't think anyone who follows JSU was breathing any sighs of relief at that, nor were we thinking much about the number of MVFC teams in our half of the bracket. I don't think there's any such thing as an "easy" path to the playoffs. And really, as a longtime visitor to AGS who is weary of the "OVC teams don't belong" comments, getting an MVFC team or two at our place would have been a great opportunity for the Gamecocks to change the story.

Also, I think plenty of us were somewhat annoyed at seeing Chattanooga as a potential first opponent. Part of the joy of the playoffs for fans is facing unfamiliar competition. We in Jacksonville never tire of seeing the Cocks beat the Mocs, but we've already had that joy this season. Safe to say that many of us will be pulling for Fordham in the first round.

As for McNeese, they'd have to buck lots of history just to get past the second round, right? JSU was a member of the Southland from 1995-2002 for football. McNeese was the only conference team the Gamecocks never beat in that time, so it was sweet to see JSU absolutely dominate the Cowboys in the second round on the road in 2013. For the sake of novelty, I'd prefer one of the CAA teams if JSU reaches the semifinals.

No matter the opponent, it's just great to be making plans for a home game in December.

If Montana wins, it's the THIRD time playing NDSU in 15 months. If SDSU wins its FOURTH time in 13 months.

[bisonaudit]

Team................... Rd1.... Rd2..... Qtr... Semi.. Final

Jacksonville State............ 82.3% 68.5% 50.4% 20.4%
Chattanooga......... 77.4%. 16.3%. 9.6%. 4.3%.. 1.1%
Fordham.............. 22.6%.. 1.4%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%. 0.0%

Charleston Southern ........ 58.2% 11.5%. 3.4%.. 0.5%
Coastal Carolina.... 57.6%. 24.0%. 5.9%.. 2.1%. 0.4%
The Citadel........... 42.4%. 17.8%. 4.0%.. 1.3%. 0.3%


James Madison................ 91.3% 44.7% 17.8%. 4.7%
New Hampshire..... 74.2%.. 7.6%. 1.4%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%
Colgate................ 25.8%.. 1.1%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%

McNeese State................ 62.9% 36.8% 14.1%.. 3.5%
Sam Houston State 57.0%. 20.9%. 9.5%.. 3.6%. 0.9%
Southern Utah....... 43.0% 16.1%.. 7.4%. 2.7%.. 0.7%



North Dakota State.......... 85.1% 69.7% 40.7% 30.2%
Montana............... 33.7%.. 2.3%. 0.7%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
South Dakota State 66.3% 12.6%.. 6.5%.. 2.5%. 1.4%

Portland State................. 53.6%.. 9.8%. 2.8%.. 1.1%
Northern Iowa....... 87.4% 44.2% 13.2%.. 5.1%. 2.9%
Eastern Illinois...... 12.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%


Richmond....................... 58.5%.. 9.3%. 1.5%.. 0.5%
William & Mary..... 93.5%. 41.0%.. 8.9%. 1.9%.. 0.8%
Duquesne.............. 6.5%... 0.5%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

Illinois State................... 91.1% 78.1% 44.9% 30.4%
Dayton.................. 8.3%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
Western Illinois..... 91.7%.. 8.9%.. 3.6%. 0.6%.. 0.2%

[bisonaudit]

Chance we play SDSU in round 2: 66.3%
Assuming we win, chance we play UNI in the quarters: 44.2%
Assuming we win, chance we play Ill St or W Ill in the semi: 81.7%

[cbline]

Team................... Rd1.... Rd2..... Qtr... Semi.. Final

Jacksonville State............ 82.3% 68.5% 50.4% 20.4%
Chattanooga......... 77.4%. 16.3%. 9.6%. 4.3%.. 1.1%
Fordham.............. 22.6%.. 1.4%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%. 0.0%

Charleston Southern ........ 58.2% 11.5%. 3.4%.. 0.5%
Coastal Carolina.... 57.6%. 24.0%. 5.9%.. 2.1%. 0.4%
The Citadel........... 42.4%. 17.8%. 4.0%.. 1.3%. 0.3%


James Madison................ 91.3% 44.7% 17.8%. 4.7%
New Hampshire..... 74.2%.. 7.6%. 1.4%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%
Colgate................ 25.8%.. 1.1%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%

McNeese State................ 62.9% 36.8% 14.1%.. 3.5%
Sam Houston State 57.0%. 20.9%. 9.5%.. 3.6%. 0.9%
Southern Utah....... 43.0% 16.1%.. 7.4%. 2.7%.. 0.7%



North Dakota State.......... 85.1% 69.7% 40.7% 30.2%
Montana............... 33.7%.. 2.3%. 0.7%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
South Dakota State 66.3% 12.6%.. 6.5%.. 2.5%. 1.4%

Portland State................. 53.6%.. 9.8%. 2.8%.. 1.1%
Northern Iowa....... 87.4% 44.2% 13.2%.. 5.1%. 2.9%
Eastern Illinois...... 12.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%


Richmond....................... 58.5%.. 9.3%. 1.5%.. 0.5%
William & Mary..... 93.5%. 41.0%.. 8.9%. 1.9%.. 0.8%
Duquesne.............. 6.5%... 0.5%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

Illinois State................... 91.1% 78.1% 44.9% 30.4%
Dayton.................. 8.3%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
Western Illinois..... 91.7%.. 8.9%.. 3.6%. 0.6%.. 0.2%

My cipherin' ain't as good as Jethro Bodine's, but I'd say the MVFC is pert near the best conference in the U. S. of A.

[JDZ]

Thanks for posting that, bisonaudit. Questions: Would JMU be favored over McNeese in the Quarters? How much would Illinois State be favored over the Bison in the Semis?

[Professor Chaos]

Team................... Rd1.... Rd2..... Qtr... Semi.. Final

Jacksonville State............ 82.3% 68.5% 50.4% 20.4%
Chattanooga......... 77.4%. 16.3%. 9.6%. 4.3%.. 1.1%
Fordham.............. 22.6%.. 1.4%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%. 0.0%

Charleston Southern ........ 58.2% 11.5%. 3.4%.. 0.5%
Coastal Carolina.... 57.6%. 24.0%. 5.9%.. 2.1%. 0.4%
The Citadel........... 42.4%. 17.8%. 4.0%.. 1.3%. 0.3%


James Madison................ 91.3% 44.7% 17.8%. 4.7%
New Hampshire..... 74.2%.. 7.6%. 1.4%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%
Colgate................ 25.8%.. 1.1%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%

McNeese State................ 62.9% 36.8% 14.1%.. 3.5%
Sam Houston State 57.0%. 20.9%. 9.5%.. 3.6%. 0.9%
Southern Utah....... 43.0% 16.1%.. 7.4%. 2.7%.. 0.7%



North Dakota State.......... 85.1% 69.7% 40.7% 30.2%
Montana............... 33.7%.. 2.3%. 0.7%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
South Dakota State 66.3% 12.6%.. 6.5%.. 2.5%. 1.4%

Portland State................. 53.6%.. 9.8%. 2.8%.. 1.1%
Northern Iowa....... 87.4% 44.2% 13.2%.. 5.1%. 2.9%
Eastern Illinois...... 12.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%


Richmond....................... 58.5%.. 9.3%. 1.5%.. 0.5%
William & Mary..... 93.5%. 41.0%.. 8.9%. 1.9%.. 0.8%
Duquesne.............. 6.5%... 0.5%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

Illinois State................... 91.1% 78.1% 44.9% 30.4%
Dayton.................. 8.3%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
Western Illinois..... 91.7%.. 8.9%.. 3.6%. 0.6%.. 0.2%

So that's a 93.8% chance that the team coming out of the bottom half of the bracket going to Frisco is a MVFC team. Might as well call the bottom part of the bracket the MIT (MVFC Invitational Tournament).

[bisonaudit]

Thanks for posting that, bisonaudit. Questions: Would JMU be favored over McNeese in the Quarters? How much would Illinois State be favored over the Bison in the Semis?

JMU would be 1/2 favorite on a neutral field. As it is they're currently a 2 point road dog 55.9% McNeese 44.1% JMU.

NDSU @ Ill St is a pick 'em 50.3% Ill St 49.7% NDSU.

[bisonaudit]

So that's a 93.8% chance that the team coming out of the bottom half of the bracket going to Frisco is a MVFC team. Might as well call the bottom part of the bracket the MIT (MVFC Invitational Tournament).

You are correct sir.

[KilldeerBison]

So that's a 93.8% chance that the team coming out of the bottom half of the bracket going to Frisco is a MVFC team. Might as well call the bottom part of the bracket the MIT (MVFC Invitational Tournament).

Very high probability the 2 best teams will NOT meet in Frisco. Good job selection committee