2015 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

Would it be too time consuming to do the same analysis above my comment on the top 5 or 6 teams in the nation? That way, we could look at likely seed positions for the playoffs.

Or maybe that snapshot is only done after 4 or 5 games as the data becomes "stronger" as the season progresses.

Maybe a little something like this?

Top 4 draft.jpg

And this?

Record draft.jpg

[Hammersmith]

Maybe a little something like this?

Top 4 draft.jpg

And this?

Record draft.jpg

Man, those bottom graphs will really change after the NDSU/SDSU game. NDSU and SDSU are fairly evenly split between two to three possible records. That uncertainty is because the NDSU/SDSU is a dead heat* according to the model. Once that game is done, both xDSU graphs will have a single, dominate prediction.


*straight Sag model is SDSU by 1.75, adapted to include bye week has NDSU by a bit less than a point

[bisonaudit]

Man, those bottom graphs will really change after the NDSU/SDSU game. NDSU and SDSU are fairly evenly split between two to three possible records. That uncertainty is because the NDSU/SDSU is a dead heat* according to the model. Once that game is done, both xDSU graphs will have a single, dominate prediction.


*straight Sag model is SDSU by 1.75, adapted to include bye week has NDSU by a bit less than a point

Yeah, I don't know if they'll get quite as peaked as Jax St or SHSU, but that sure looks like the most important game of the year right now.

UNI and Cal Poly this week is the only game remaining for the team I compiled that's closer.

[TateMosersneighbor]

Maybe a little something like this?

Top 4 draft.jpg

And this?

Record draft.jpg

Oh...me likey! Thank you. So we'll make the playoffs is my belief, even a 7-4 Bison team makes it. What this paints right now is that we might be on the road for the semi's and perhaps even quarterfinals. That will be interesting. Jax State sounds like, looks like the real deal.

[bisonaudit]

Oh...me likey! Thank you. So we'll make the playoffs is my belief, even a 7-4 Bison team makes it. What this paints right now is that we might be on the road for the semi's and perhaps even quarterfinals. That will be interesting. Jax State sounds like, looks like the real deal.

Either that or the class of a weak conference.

[heffray]

Either that or the class of a weak conference.

Weak conference or not, you don't take Auburn to OT without being a legit contender.

[Gully]

Tatesbitch, I'm curious as to why you seem confident that 7-4 will get NDSU in? Just based on reputation or what? Remember we don't have a FBS win this year. I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious of your thinking. Hopefully it doesn't come to that anyway.

Also, how is your wife?

[gotts]

Tatesbitch, I'm curious as to why you seem confident that 7-4 will get NDSU in? Just based on reputation or what? Remember we don't have a FBS win this year. I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious of your thinking. Hopefully it doesn't come to that anyway.

Also, how is your wife?

The day the NCAA stops caring about regionalization is the day a 7-4 NDSU team that can sell ~19000 tickets to a first round matchup doesn't get in the playoffs.

[Gully]

The day the NCAA stops caring about regionalization is the day a 7-4 NDSU team that can sell ~19000 tickets to a first round matchup doesn't get in the playoffs.

Wait, are you implying the selection process isn't completely objective? I'm shocked <purple>

[gotts]

Wait, are you implying the selection process isn't completely objective? I'm shocked <purple>

I bet you think the NCAA doesn't look out for the best interest of their student athletes either!