2015 Sagarin Says

[IzzyFlexion]

I love this thread, not much BS...data and objective stuff about upcoming stuff.

Definitely interesting to compare this particular OBJECTIVE information with what seems to be the prevailing SUBJECTIVE schools of thought. (although one could argue that the polls carry a combination of both)

NDSU still holds the number one spot as analyzed by the Sagarin system.............but have slipped in the polls to as low as 10th.
Like I said..........interesting.........not complaining...........I'd rather have the Bison ranked lower at this point anyway.............gotta get some of that anger back into the fellas. I want 'em to see that banner go up on Saturday and realize what needs to happen going forward.

[DakotaOkie]

As probably expected, the Bison moved up a couple of spots with yesterday's win over Weber to 66th. SDSU moved up big time to 68th from somewhere around 94 the previous week and ISU_r is 72. Wyo is aligned with Weber and UN_ at 179, 177, and 175. Even though Sagarin falls into the for what it is worth category, it is fun to watch and more objective than polls. Fortunately, the games still get played on the field.

[Hammersmith]

Say what you will, but Sagarin was dead on last week. Predicted a 26.22 point Bison win over Weber, and the result was a 27 point win. Sag is predicting a nearly identical result over UND on Saturday.

SDSU is now favored against NDSU in a 1.72 point spread. ISUr would also be favored if the game were to be played at their place.

Big Sky retains it's 2nd place spot among FCS conferences, but there's still a mile of difference between them and the bottom FBS conference. And the CAA is within a hairsbreadth of the Sky(0.06).

Sagarin's 2015 Week 3 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 66	North Dakota State  	68.93				
113	Montana             	58.56	 +7.72	 -3.00	-10.72	
177	Weber State         	44.02	+27.56	+27.00	 -0.56	
175	North Dakota        	44.37	+27.21			
 68	South Dakota State  	68.00	 -1.72			
105	Northern Iowa       	61.28	+10.30			
154	South Dakota        	49.71	+21.87			
139	Indiana State       	52.86	+13.42			
126	Southern Illinois   	56.59	 +9.69			
133	Western Illinois    	54.35	+17.23			
120	Youngstown State    	57.09	 +9.19			
157	Missouri State      	48.04	+23.54			
						
 72	Illinois State      	67.03				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-11.28	
		Home Field	 2.65

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 66	68.93	North Dakota State  			
 2	 68	68.00	South Dakota State  			
 3	 72	67.03	Illinois State      			
 4	 80	66.13	Jacksonville State  			
 5	 92	64.05	Sam Houston State   			
 6	 96	62.60	Eastern Washington  			
 7	101	61.54	Coastal Carolina    			
 8	103	61.45	James Madison       			
 9	105	61.28	Northern Iowa       			
10	106	60.98	Chattanooga         			
11	107	60.52	Samford             			
12	108	60.17	Villanova           			
13	113	58.56	Montana             			
14	116	58.10	Cal Poly-SLO        			
15	118	57.47	SE Louisiana        			
16	119	57.13	William & Mary      			
17	120	57.09	Youngstown State    			
18	123	56.97	Portland State      			
19	126	56.59	Southern Illinois   			
20	130	55.12	Wofford             			
21	131	54.80	Montana State       			
22	132	54.73	The Citadel         			
23	133	54.35	Western Illinois    			
24	135	53.85	Liberty             			
25	138	52.96	New Hampshire

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	SEC                 	80.25	14			
 2	BIG 12              	79.85	10			
 3	ACC                 	76.86	14			
 4	BIG TEN             	76.74	11			
 5	PAC-12              	75.65	10			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	75.14	 3			 
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	65.99	 5			
 8	MWC                 	62.47	 3			
 9	CONFERENCE USA      	59.00	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.10	 1			
11	MAC                 	57.55	 2			
12	SUN BELT            	55.99	 1			
13	BIG SKY             	49.12	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	49.06	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	48.30	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.26	 1			
17	SOUTHLAND           	43.28	 1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	39.40	 1			
19	NORTHEAST           	38.72	 1			
20	IVY LEAGUE          	38.24	 1			
21	PATRIOT             	34.92	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.53	 1			
23	SWAC                	28.22	 1			
24	PIONEER             	23.00	 1

[IzzyFlexion]

Say what you will, but Sagarin was dead on last week. Predicted a 26.22 point Bison win over Weber, and the result was a 27 point win. Sag is predicting a nearly identical result over UND on Saturday.

SDSU is now favored against NDSU in a 1.72 point spread. ISUr would also be favored if the game were to be played at their place.

Big Sky retains it's 2nd place spot among FCS conferences, but there's still a mile of difference between them and the bottom FBS conference. And the CAA is within a hairsbreadth of the Sky(0.06).

Sagarin's 2015 Week 3 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 66	North Dakota State  	68.93				
113	Montana             	58.56	 +7.72	 -3.00	-10.72	
177	Weber State         	44.02	+27.56	+27.00	 -0.56	
175	North Dakota        	44.37	+27.21			
 68	South Dakota State  	68.00	 -1.72			
105	Northern Iowa       	61.28	+10.30			
154	South Dakota        	49.71	+21.87			
139	Indiana State       	52.86	+13.42			
126	Southern Illinois   	56.59	 +9.69			
133	Western Illinois    	54.35	+17.23			
120	Youngstown State    	57.09	 +9.19			
157	Missouri State      	48.04	+23.54			
						
 72	Illinois State      	67.03				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-11.28	
		Home Field	 2.65

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 66	68.93	North Dakota State  			
 2	 68	68.00	South Dakota State  			
 3	 72	67.03	Illinois State      			
 4	 80	66.13	Jacksonville State  			
 5	 92	64.05	Sam Houston State   			
 6	 96	62.60	Eastern Washington  			
 7	101	61.54	Coastal Carolina    			
 8	103	61.45	James Madison       			
 9	105	61.28	Northern Iowa       			
10	106	60.98	Chattanooga         			
11	107	60.52	Samford             			
12	108	60.17	Villanova           			
13	113	58.56	Montana             			
14	116	58.10	Cal Poly-SLO        			
15	118	57.47	SE Louisiana        			
16	119	57.13	William & Mary      			
17	120	57.09	Youngstown State    			
18	123	56.97	Portland State      			
19	126	56.59	Southern Illinois   			
20	130	55.12	Wofford             			
21	131	54.80	Montana State       			
22	132	54.73	The Citadel         			
23	133	54.35	Western Illinois    			
24	135	53.85	Liberty             			
25	138	52.96	New Hampshire

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	SEC                 	80.25	14			
 2	BIG 12              	79.85	10			
 3	ACC                 	76.86	14			
 4	BIG TEN             	76.74	11			
 5	PAC-12              	75.65	10			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	75.14	 3			 
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	65.99	 5			
 8	MWC                 	62.47	 3			
 9	CONFERENCE USA      	59.00	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.10	 1			
11	MAC                 	57.55	 2			
12	SUN BELT            	55.99	 1			
13	BIG SKY             	49.12	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	49.06	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	48.30	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.26	 1			
17	SOUTHLAND           	43.28	 1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	39.40	 1			
19	NORTHEAST           	38.72	 1			
20	IVY LEAGUE          	38.24	 1			
21	PATRIOT             	34.92	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.53	 1			
23	SWAC                	28.22	 1			
24	PIONEER             	23.00	 1

25 FCS teams in the top 138 ?!?!
That's gotta be unprecedented, no?

[Hammerhead]

Even the lowest-rated team in the MVFC, Misery State, is #36 among FCS schools so the entire conference is in the top 1/3.

[Mr Meaty]

Even the lowest-rated team in the MVFC, Misery State, is #36 among FCS schools so the entire conference is in the top 1/3.

But I thought after week prior that big fluffy over took us.

[JDZ]

I'm surprised SE Mo St is still so low (38? in FCS) after hanging tough with Mizzou and beating Southern Illinois. I wonder if they are an OVC playoff contender.

[bisonaudit]

I'm surprised SE Mo St is still so low (38? in FCS) after hanging tough with Mizzou and beating Southern Illinois. I wonder if they are an OVC playoff contender.

They lost by 31 to Mizzou, which is within a point or two of their current difference in ratings. Sagarin doesn't think Mizzou is a top 30 team, let alone 20th as the coaches have them. Also, it's early so Sagarin's preseason numbers are still heavy in the mix, teams are not well connected yet, etc. Basically, the model is pretty dumb at this point.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

10-1 15.7% +3.8% from last week
9-2.. 35.4% +5.1%
8-3.. 30.8% -1.2%
7-4.. 13.9% -4.4%
6-5.... 3.6% -2.6%
5-6.... 0.5% -0.7%
4-7.... 0.05%
3-8.... 0.002%
2-9.... 0.0001%
1-10.. 0.000001%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.UND... 97.7% 27.0. +2.4%. +4.5 change from last week
@SDSU. 52.6%.. 1.0. -14.3%. -5.0
v.UNI.... 77.7% 10.5.. -0.3%.. 0.0
v.USD... 94.6% 22.0.. -2.0%.. -3.0
@Ind St. 83.9% 13.5. +6.6% +3.5
@S Ill.... 76.4%. 9.5. +7.8%. +3.0
v.W Ill... 89.8% 17.0. +9.3% +5.5
@YSU.... 75.2%. 9.0 +14.1% +5.0
v.Mo St.. 95.8% 23.5.. -0.6% -1.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
+1 @SDSU. 52.6%.. 1.0
-1. @YSU.... 75.2%.. 9.0
--. @S Ill.... 76.4%.. 9.5
+1 v.UNI.... 77.7% 10.5
-1. @Ind St. 83.9% 13.5
--. v.W Ill... 89.8% 17.0
+2 v.USD... 94.6% 22.0
--. v.Mo St.. 95.8% 23.5
-2. v.UND... 97.7% 27.0

[TateMosersneighbor]

Would it be too time consuming to do the same analysis above my comment on the top 5 or 6 teams in the nation? That way, we could look at likely seed positions for the playoffs.

Or maybe that snapshot is only done after 4 or 5 games as the data becomes "stronger" as the season progresses.