Initial Sagarin Rankings are out. We come in at #48. Northern Iowa 82 and ISUr at 84.
Edit: If you want the old Sagarin Says thread, it be here: http://www.bisonville.com/forum/show...2-Sagarin-says
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Initial Sagarin Rankings are out. We come in at #48. Northern Iowa 82 and ISUr at 84.
Edit: If you want the old Sagarin Says thread, it be here: http://www.bisonville.com/forum/show...2-Sagarin-says
So took a quick look and I don't see only two G5 schools in Boise and Cincinnati higher than us. Did I read that right? (Yes, stick that in you eye, B1G.)
So is this based entirely on last years teams or do they try and do a little adjusting?Quote:
Originally Posted by BisManBison
Also see that Montana State and Montana are listed at 129 and 130. (Your cue Tatanka :nod:)
http://www.sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
Yes :biggrin:,
Honestly, there are guys on here a lot smarter than I am in regards to the algorithm Sagarin uses, but it's my understanding it uses data from last year as well this year for at least the first month or so.
Weber St. is 179 and UN* is 190.Quote:
Originally Posted by BisManBison
Because it based so much on last season I wouldn't put too much stock in it for the first couple weeks. For example, I definitely think you will see Ill St. and even UN_ climb much higher than their current positions...UNI and Montana have had some big changes and can't be predicted on modeling based off last season. My hunch is that both (especially UNI) will be very good this year but who knows early onQuote:
Originally Posted by BisManBison
LOL @ Big Fluffy
Sent from my online-only virtual dorm room.
I think it is usually around mid-Oct that the teams are well connected enough to drop the starting values based on previous years' data. So, yes... Definitely take these ratings with a heavy grain of salt the first several weeks.
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Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's pre-season ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
11-0 28.9%
10-1 39.4%
9-2.. 22.8%
8-3.... 7.3%
7-4.... 1.4%
6-5.... 0.2%
5-6.... 0.01%
4-7.... 0.001%
3-8.... 0.00001%
2-9.... 0.0000002%
1-10.. 0.000000001%
0-11.. 0.000000000002%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 78.6% 10.70
v.UNI.... 78.6% 10.71
@SDSU. 82.8% 12.77
@S Ill.... 84.4% 13.70
@Ind St. 85.9% 14.57
@Mont.. 87.9% 15.83
v.Mo St.. 94.8% 22.05
v.W Ill... 96.0% 23.81
v.USD... 98.5% 29.50
v.UND... 99.5% 35.27
v.Weber 99.5% 35.64
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
How do you calculate the 10-1, 9-2 etc. percentages when you don't know who we will lose too? Are you assuming we lose the 1 or 2 games etc to the best team(s)? Randomly pick the opponent who beats us?
Got it. It's been a while.
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http://xbmc.us/wp-content/uploads/20...nderstand1.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
How can Weber be an easier game than UN_ when Weber is ranked 179 and UN_ is at 190?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I have always enjoyed this thread, and comparisons, when we were always nearly undefeated. Lets show we're still at that level, before getting too excited. could be a year of shootouts, with a lot to prove this season.
Some guys love football. Some guys like crunching numbers. Some guys like to bring the two together and use math to help predict outcomes. Some guys cry like little bitches and need to learn to not read certain threads if they don't interest them.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011BisonAlumni
This. There are threads I follow, and threads I don't. But I appreciate the sheer amount of discussion on the forum. Don't get why people try to shut down legit topics. I started following the main Wyoming forum site (I am not one of the Bohl haters), and that forum is like a ghost town for real football discussion. Unless you want to talk about whether the uni's should change. Then its a 5 page thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Thundering Herd
Gosh, I didn't realize people jerked off to this thread. Go nuts, 2011 dude, go nuts. Whatever gets you off.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011BisonAlumni
As to your comment that it means nothing... Hmm... Early in the season, you may be onto something. But since it exists even early in the season, we may as well still follow it until it actually has a little more value.
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Thanks for your weekly post...your input is valuable and will be taken for what it is...moving on.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2011BisonAlumni
Mods, any possibility to combine this thread with bikini thread to save some people time?Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Also be nice to have standardized rankings on the bikinis.
Wow, he actually updated his ratings after our game. As you can imagine, we tumbled a lot. Still the top FCS team.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 1 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
70 North Dakota State 68.49
103 Montana 61.42 +4.42 -3.00 -7.42
179 Weber State 44.53 +26.61
190 North Dakota 42.30 +28.84
98 South Dakota State 62.10 +3.74
82 Northern Iowa 66.84 +4.30
165 South Dakota 48.07 +23.07
119 Indiana State 57.69 +8.15
114 Southern Illinois 58.56 +7.28
148 Western Illinois 53.75 +17.39
102 Youngstown State 61.55 +4.29
136 Missouri State 55.51 +15.63
84 Illinois State 66.18
Total Diff: -7.42
Home Field 2.65
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 70 68.49 North Dakota State
2 82 66.84 Northern Iowa
3 84 66.18 Illinois State
4 92 63.71 Sam Houston State
5 94 62.96 Chattanooga
6 98 62.10 South Dakota State
7 99 61.94 Villanova
8 100 61.78 Jacksonville State
9 102 61.55 Youngstown State
10 103 61.42 Montana
11 104 61.12 Eastern Washington
12 108 60.38 Coastal Carolina
13 114 58.56 Southern Illinois
14 117 58.07 New Hampshire
15 119 57.69 Indiana State
16 122 57.42 Eastern Illinois
17 128 56.73 SE Louisiana
18 129 56.61 James Madison
19 130 56.45 Montana State
20 131 56.41 Samford
21 136 55.51 Missouri State
22 140 54.86 Wofford
23 141 54.55 Liberty
24 142 54.46 Harvard
25 144 54.23 Cal Poly-SLO
Code:
Conference CntMean NDSU
SEC 81.65 14
BIG 12 80.26 10
PAC-12 77.52 12
ACC 75.92 13
BIG TEN 75.43 11
I-A INDEPENDENTS 72.11 3
AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.60 6
MWC 64.55 4
MISSOURI VALLEY 60.08 1
CONFERENCE USA 59.59 4
MAC 58.84 2
SUN BELT 56.82 1
COLONIAL 49.60 1
BIG SKY 48.88 1
SOUTHERN 47.76 1
OHIO VALLEY 47.19 1
SOUTHLAND 44.91 1
BIG SOUTH 41.13 1
IVY LEAGUE 39.93 1
PATRIOT 38.50 1
NORTHEAST 37.21 1
MID-EASTERN 35.58 1
SWAC 29.88 1
PIONEER 24.15 1
Yes. Unlike the rest of the internet, this thread is click-optional.Quote:
Originally Posted by Thundering Herd
Also it really stinks of sour grapes when all of a sudden this thread isn't ok because it is no longer a wet dream for us.
Despite the fact that the silly computer still thinks we're the best team in FCS.Quote:
Originally Posted by mnriverbison
Right, but the wet dream part was seeing us ranked higher by sagarin than legit FBS programs. That was fun, but the value of sagarin for many of us stat enthusiasts doesn't start and end there. For non stat enthusiasts, seeing us ranked like that was cool but now that we aren't that stuff is just for the nerds I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1.. 9.9% -29.4% from last week
9-2.. 27.8% + 5.0%
8-3.. 32.4% +25.1%
7-4.. 20.4% +19.0%
6-5.... 7.6% + 7.4%
5-6.... 1.7% + 1.7%
4-7.... 0.2% + 0.2%
3-8.... 0.02%
2-9.... 0.001%
1-10.. 0.00001%
0-11.. 0.0000001%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.Weber 98.4% 29.0 -1.1% -6.5 change from last week
v.UND... 98.3% 29.0 -1.2% -6.5
@SDSU. 68.1% 6.5 -14.7% -7.0
v.UNI.... 62.5% 4.5 -16.1% -6.0
v.USD... 95.5% 23.0 -3.0% -6.5
@Ind St. 72.7% 8.0 -13.2% -6.5
@S Ill.... 70.5% 7.5 -13.9% -6.0
v.W Ill... 90.0% 17.5 -6.0% -6.5
@YSU.... 62.5% 4.5 -16.1% -6.0
v.Mo St.. 87.6% 15.5 -7.2% -6.5
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.... 62.5% 4.5
v.UNI.... 62.5% 4.5
@SDSU. 68.1% 6.5
@S Ill.... 70.5% 7.5
@Ind St. 72.7% 8.0
v.Mo St.. 87.6% 15.5
v.W Ill... 90.0% 17.5
v.USD... 95.5% 23.0
v.UND... 98.3% 29.0
v.Weber 98.4% 29.0
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1. 11.9% +1.9% from last week
9-2.. 30.2% +2.5%
8-3.. 32.0% -0.4%
7-4.. 18.3% -2.1%
6-5.... 6.2% -1.4%
5-6.... 1.2% -0.4%
4-7.... 0.1% -0.1%
3-8.... 0.01%
2-9.... 0.0003%
1-10.. 0.00001%
0-11.. 0.00000004%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.Weber 98.3% 29.0.. -0.1%.. 0.0 change from last week
v.UND... 95.3% 22.5.. -3.0%. -6.5
@SDSU. 66.9%.. 6.0.. -1.2%. -0.5
v.UNI.... 78.0% 10.5 +15.5% +6.0
v.USD... 96.6% 25.0. +1.1% +2.0
@Ind St. 77.3% 10.0. +4.6% +2.0
@S Ill.... 68.6%. 6.5. -1.9%.. -1.0
v.W Ill... 80.5% 11.5. -9.5%. -6.0
@YSU.... 61.1%. 4.0. -1.4%.. -0.5
v.Mo St.. 96.4% 24.5 +8.8% +9.0
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--. @YSU.... 61.1%.. 4.0
+1 @SDSU. 66.9%.. 6.0
+1 @S Ill.... 68.6%. 6.5
+1 @Ind St. 77.3% 10.0
-3. v.UNI.... 78.0% 10.5
+1 v.W Ill... 80.5% 11.5
+2 v.UND... 95.3% 22.5
-2. v.Mo St.. 96.4% 24.5
-1. v.USD... 96.6% 25.0
--. v. Weber 98.3% 29.0
No way, this thread is epic! :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Buffalo.Rider
change your setting for viewing, I am only on page 41.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalo.Rider
I did split the thread up and will do the same to the Weber State one. However, I updated the first post in this new thread so that there's a link to the old "Sagarin Says" thread.
Big Sky not so fluffy anymore.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 1 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
69 North Dakota State 69.51
117 Montana 58.53 +8.33 -3.00 -11.33
172 Weber State 45.94 +26.22
158 North Dakota 49.45 +22.71
94 South Dakota State 63.57 +3.29
101 Northern Iowa 61.75 +10.41
168 South Dakota 47.29 +24.87
130 Indiana State 56.75 +10.11
110 Southern Illinois 60.32 +6.54
108 Western Illinois 60.55 +11.61
99 Youngstown State 63.05 +3.81
166 Missouri State 47.64 +24.52
88 Illinois State 64.56
Total Diff: -11.33
Home Field 2.65
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 69 69.51 North Dakota State
2 85 64.78 Eastern Washington
3 88 64.56 Illinois State
4 94 63.57 South Dakota State
5 95 63.42 Jacksonville State
6 96 63.35 Sam Houston State
7 99 63.05 Youngstown State
8 101 61.75 Northern Iowa
9 104 60.83 Chattanooga
10 106 60.80 Samford
11 108 60.55 Western Illinois
12 110 60.32 Southern Illinois
13 111 59.86 Villanova
14 115 59.03 Coastal Carolina
15 117 58.53 Montana
16 118 58.25 James Madison
17 121 57.82 SE Louisiana
18 123 57.75 William & Mary
19 129 56.79 Cal Poly-SLO
20 130 56.75 Indiana State
21 134 55.40 Montana State
22 137 54.10 Eastern Kentucky
23 138 53.55 Wofford
24 140 53.40 Harvard
25 144 52.85 Portland State
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 82.19 14
2 BIG 12 80.15 10
3 ACC 76.31 14
4 BIG TEN 75.69 13
5 PAC-12 75.34 11
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 74.49 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.75 5
8 MWC 65.35 2
9 CONFERENCE USA 60.53 4
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 60.24 1
11 MAC 58.47 2
12 SUN BELT 54.90 1
13 BIG SKY 51.40 1
14 SOUTHERN 48.84 1
15 COLONIAL 48.54 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 45.45 1
17 SOUTHLAND 43.48 1
18 BIG SOUTH 41.25 1
19 IVY LEAGUE 38.84 1
20 PATRIOT 37.20 1
21 NORTHEAST 36.68 1
22 MID-EASTERN 33.42 1
23 SWAC 29.08 1
24 PIONEER 23.63 1
I love this thread, not much BS...data and objective stuff about upcoming stuff.
Definitely interesting to compare this particular OBJECTIVE information with what seems to be the prevailing SUBJECTIVE schools of thought. (although one could argue that the polls carry a combination of both)Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
NDSU still holds the number one spot as analyzed by the Sagarin system.............but have slipped in the polls to as low as 10th.
Like I said..........interesting.........not complaining...........I'd rather have the Bison ranked lower at this point anyway.............gotta get some of that anger back into the fellas. I want 'em to see that banner go up on Saturday and realize what needs to happen going forward.
As probably expected, the Bison moved up a couple of spots with yesterday's win over Weber to 66th. SDSU moved up big time to 68th from somewhere around 94 the previous week and ISU_r is 72. Wyo is aligned with Weber and UN_ at 179, 177, and 175. Even though Sagarin falls into the for what it is worth category, it is fun to watch and more objective than polls. Fortunately, the games still get played on the field.
Say what you will, but Sagarin was dead on last week. Predicted a 26.22 point Bison win over Weber, and the result was a 27 point win. Sag is predicting a nearly identical result over UND on Saturday.
SDSU is now favored against NDSU in a 1.72 point spread. ISUr would also be favored if the game were to be played at their place.
Big Sky retains it's 2nd place spot among FCS conferences, but there's still a mile of difference between them and the bottom FBS conference. And the CAA is within a hairsbreadth of the Sky(0.06).
Sagarin's 2015 Week 3 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
66 North Dakota State 68.93
113 Montana 58.56 +7.72 -3.00 -10.72
177 Weber State 44.02 +27.56 +27.00 -0.56
175 North Dakota 44.37 +27.21
68 South Dakota State 68.00 -1.72
105 Northern Iowa 61.28 +10.30
154 South Dakota 49.71 +21.87
139 Indiana State 52.86 +13.42
126 Southern Illinois 56.59 +9.69
133 Western Illinois 54.35 +17.23
120 Youngstown State 57.09 +9.19
157 Missouri State 48.04 +23.54
72 Illinois State 67.03
Total Diff: -11.28
Home Field 2.65
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 66 68.93 North Dakota State
2 68 68.00 South Dakota State
3 72 67.03 Illinois State
4 80 66.13 Jacksonville State
5 92 64.05 Sam Houston State
6 96 62.60 Eastern Washington
7 101 61.54 Coastal Carolina
8 103 61.45 James Madison
9 105 61.28 Northern Iowa
10 106 60.98 Chattanooga
11 107 60.52 Samford
12 108 60.17 Villanova
13 113 58.56 Montana
14 116 58.10 Cal Poly-SLO
15 118 57.47 SE Louisiana
16 119 57.13 William & Mary
17 120 57.09 Youngstown State
18 123 56.97 Portland State
19 126 56.59 Southern Illinois
20 130 55.12 Wofford
21 131 54.80 Montana State
22 132 54.73 The Citadel
23 133 54.35 Western Illinois
24 135 53.85 Liberty
25 138 52.96 New Hampshire
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 SEC 80.25 14
2 BIG 12 79.85 10
3 ACC 76.86 14
4 BIG TEN 76.74 11
5 PAC-12 75.65 10
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 75.14 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.99 5
8 MWC 62.47 3
9 CONFERENCE USA 59.00 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.10 1
11 MAC 57.55 2
12 SUN BELT 55.99 1
13 BIG SKY 49.12 1
14 COLONIAL 49.06 1
15 SOUTHERN 48.30 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.26 1
17 SOUTHLAND 43.28 1
18 BIG SOUTH 39.40 1
19 NORTHEAST 38.72 1
20 IVY LEAGUE 38.24 1
21 PATRIOT 34.92 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.53 1
23 SWAC 28.22 1
24 PIONEER 23.00 1
25 FCS teams in the top 138 ?!?!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
That's gotta be unprecedented, no?
Even the lowest-rated team in the MVFC, Misery State, is #36 among FCS schools so the entire conference is in the top 1/3.
But I thought after week prior that big fluffy over took us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
I'm surprised SE Mo St is still so low (38? in FCS) after hanging tough with Mizzou and beating Southern Illinois. I wonder if they are an OVC playoff contender.
They lost by 31 to Mizzou, which is within a point or two of their current difference in ratings. Sagarin doesn't think Mizzou is a top 30 team, let alone 20th as the coaches have them. Also, it's early so Sagarin's preseason numbers are still heavy in the mix, teams are not well connected yet, etc. Basically, the model is pretty dumb at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1 15.7% +3.8% from last week
9-2.. 35.4% +5.1%
8-3.. 30.8% -1.2%
7-4.. 13.9% -4.4%
6-5.... 3.6% -2.6%
5-6.... 0.5% -0.7%
4-7.... 0.05%
3-8.... 0.002%
2-9.... 0.0001%
1-10.. 0.000001%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.UND... 97.7% 27.0. +2.4%. +4.5 change from last week
@SDSU. 52.6%.. 1.0. -14.3%. -5.0
v.UNI.... 77.7% 10.5.. -0.3%.. 0.0
v.USD... 94.6% 22.0.. -2.0%.. -3.0
@Ind St. 83.9% 13.5. +6.6% +3.5
@S Ill.... 76.4%. 9.5. +7.8%. +3.0
v.W Ill... 89.8% 17.0. +9.3% +5.5
@YSU.... 75.2%. 9.0 +14.1% +5.0
v.Mo St.. 95.8% 23.5.. -0.6% -1.0
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
+1 @SDSU. 52.6%.. 1.0
-1. @YSU.... 75.2%.. 9.0
--. @S Ill.... 76.4%.. 9.5
+1 v.UNI.... 77.7% 10.5
-1. @Ind St. 83.9% 13.5
--. v.W Ill... 89.8% 17.0
+2 v.USD... 94.6% 22.0
--. v.Mo St.. 95.8% 23.5
-2. v.UND... 97.7% 27.0
Would it be too time consuming to do the same analysis above my comment on the top 5 or 6 teams in the nation? That way, we could look at likely seed positions for the playoffs.
Or maybe that snapshot is only done after 4 or 5 games as the data becomes "stronger" as the season progresses.