Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by SamsRams

Not trying to be a smart ass, but Vegas never had a line on this game and they don't put lines on fcs vs fcs regular season games.

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Maybe NDSUStudent can tell us where he got them from.

Just in case he was blowing smoke I'll add this:

I applied a similar approach to the NFL for parts of 2010 (wk 9 - super bowl) and 2011 (wk 7 - wk 14) using Bodog's lines and saw comparable results. 15.7% average return. 7 losing weeks in 21. 110-86-4 against the spread.

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Originally Posted by SamsRams

Not trying to be a smart ass, but Vegas never had a line on this game and they don't put lines on fcs vs fcs regular season games.

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Think LVH will run lines on the FCS playoffs?

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Originally Posted by RadioBison

Am I reading correctly that Sagarin only predicted the actual winner in 47 out of 106 games? My homemade system was at about 74% last week, and I expect Sagarin to do better than that.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

That doesn't seem right. I'd believe that in one week AGS. But not straight up. I picked 10 college games a week over 10 weeks for three years in a contest against maybe 100 others using Sagarin for every pick and finished in the podium at seasons end twice. Straight up should be competitive with your number in my experience

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Good catch, guys. I should have caught it myself when I questioned the low number the first time, but I didn't double check that formula until now. The 47/106 figure is when the Sagarin predicted spread is at least as large as the actual point differential AND the predicted winner is correct.

Straight up in terms of predicting the actual winner based on the points on the board, Sagarin was right 81 times. That seems much more in line with expectations. I also noticed that I failed to exclude a DIAA-DII game because Incarnate Word played at McMurray (DII). So the total number of games between DI opponents was actually only 105. I guess I need to get someone to peer review my work, eh?

Sweet! NDSU cracked the top 30 again. So K-State ' loss to us gives them another loss to a top 30 program. And with K-State at 22, we still have a win over a top 30 team. We jumped all the way up to 79.27 in Sagarin's predictor score. That's about where we ended the season last year when we were 32nd at 79.53.

Wow. Just wow!

Sent from somewhere using my Windows phone.

Today's numbers are baffling to me. Huge jumps both in ratings and positions all up and down the list. It feels like the predictor formula changed or there are errors in the data. I'll try and remember to come back later today and see if anything changed(wouldn't be the first time).

Big Sky takes a huge tumble; Montana State drops out of the top-25 altogether. Jacksonville State comes out of nowhere to take #15. Two Ivy teams crack the top-25. Illinois State makes it back into the top-25 with a loss to us. That makes 70% of the Valley in the top-25. The OVC passes both the Southland and Big Sky to take third place. CAA teams take 4, 5, 6, 13 & 24. Not a single Southern team makes the top-25. Mass chaos. Bison are still nearly a two TD favorite at Youngstown.


Sagarin's Week 12 Predictions

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 31        North Dakota State        79.27                                       
 23        Kansas State                83.48          -8.32      3.00        11.32               
 NA        Ferris State                  NA              NA      46.00            NA               
232        Delaware State                34.14          49.24      51.00          1.76               
111        South Dakota State        60.68          14.48      20.00          5.52               
 91        Northern Iowa                63.33          20.05      1.00        -19.05               
 95        Missouri State                62.63          20.75      15.00        -5.75               
107        Southern Illinois        61.18          13.98      21.00          7.02               
199        Indiana State                40.50          34.66      46.00        11.34               
121        Illinois State                57.92          25.46      18.00        -7.46               
100        Youngstown State        62.07          13.09                               
163        South Dakota                50.61          32.77                               
                                                       
162        Western Illinois        50.81                                       
                                                Total Diff:          4.70
        Home                        4.11

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

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1  31  North Dakota State
 2  48  Eastern Illinois
 3  69  SE Louisiana
 4  74  Villanova
 5  75  William & Mary
 6  78  Towson
 7  83  Eastern Washington
 8  91  Northern Iowa
 9  93  Montana
10  94  Sam Houston State
11  95  Missouri State
12  100  Youngstown State
13  101  Maine
14  103  McNeese State
15  106  Jacksonville State
16  107  Southern Illinois
17  108  Coastal Carolina
18  111  South Dakota State
19  112  Cal Poly
20  113  Harvard
21  114  Old Dominion
22  115  Eastern Kentucky
23  118  Princeton
24  120  New Hampshire
25  121  Illinois State

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Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        59.24
2.  Colonial        56.11
3.  Ohio Valley 52.84
4.  Southland        52.68
5.  Big Sky        48.81
6.  Southern        48.65

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The difference for NDSU decreased by like 14 points. I don't think it's moved that much all year. Maybe the whole model snapped to a new equilibrium?

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Today's numbers are baffling to me. Huge jumps both in ratings and positions all up and down the list. It feels like the predictor formula changed or there are errors in the data. I'll try and remember to come back later today and see if anything changed(wouldn't be the first time).

Big Sky takes a huge tumble; Montana State drops out of the top-25 altogether. Jacksonville State comes out of nowhere to take #15. Two Ivy teams crack the top-25. Illinois State makes it back into the top-25 with a loss to us. That makes 70% of the Valley in the top-25. The OVC passes both the Southland and Big Sky to take third place. CAA teams take 4, 5, 6, 13 & 24. Not a single Southern team makes the top-25. Mass chaos. Bison are still nearly a two TD favorite at Youngstown.


Sagarin's Week 12 Predictions

Code:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 31        North Dakota State        79.27                                       
 23        Kansas State                83.48          -8.32      3.00        11.32               
 NA        Ferris State                  NA              NA      46.00            NA               
232        Delaware State                34.14          49.24      51.00          1.76               
111        South Dakota State        60.68          14.48      20.00          5.52               
 91        Northern Iowa                63.33          20.05      1.00        -19.05               
 95        Missouri State                62.63          20.75      15.00        -5.75               
107        Southern Illinois        61.18          13.98      21.00          7.02               
199        Indiana State                40.50          34.66      46.00        11.34               
121        Illinois State                57.92          25.46      18.00        -7.46               
100        Youngstown State        62.07          13.09                               
163        South Dakota                50.61          32.77                               
                                                       
162        Western Illinois        50.81                                       
                                                Total Diff:          4.70
        Home                        4.11

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

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1  31  North Dakota State
 2  48  Eastern Illinois
 3  69  SE Louisiana
 4  74  Villanova
 5  75  William & Mary
 6  78  Towson
 7  83  Eastern Washington
 8  91  Northern Iowa
 9  93  Montana
10  94  Sam Houston State
11  95  Missouri State
12  100  Youngstown State
13  101  Maine
14  103  McNeese State
15  106  Jacksonville State
16  107  Southern Illinois
17  108  Coastal Carolina
18  111  South Dakota State
19  112  Cal Poly
20  113  Harvard
21  114  Old Dominion
22  115  Eastern Kentucky
23  118  Princeton
24  120  New Hampshire
25  121  Illinois State

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Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        59.24
2.  Colonial        56.11
3.  Ohio Valley 52.84
4.  Southland        52.68
5.  Big Sky        48.81
6.  Southern        48.65

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A couple thoughts:
1) Wow
2) LOL@BigSky
3) The entire MVFC, with the exception of Indiana State, would be above average in the Big Sky.
4) UNI is still getting love from beating Iowa State and playing NDSU tough?

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Originally Posted by Tatanka

A couple thoughts:
1) Wow
2) LOL@BigSky
3) The entire MVFC, with the exception of Indiana State, would be above average in the Big Sky.
4) UNI is still getting love from beating Iowa State and playing NDSU tough?

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4a) losing a bunch of games close in the toughest conference in the division. It's all about the score with the predictor it doesn't see W/L.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

4a) losing a bunch of games close in the toughest conference in the division. It's all about the score with the predictor it doesn't see W/L.

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4.a.1)Sorry should have been a period not a question mark.