For populating the field, you'd do just as well seeding the top 4 then pulling names out of "regional" hats. For predicting outcomes Sagarin is the man.Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
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For populating the field, you'd do just as well seeding the top 4 then pulling names out of "regional" hats. For predicting outcomes Sagarin is the man.Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
Of course he is he has the bison ranked #1
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
They just decide how they want things to turn out and then attempt to back into some fairly legitimate sounding reasons for it apparently. The bottom line is they want to save money on travel costs and don't like to admit how dominate one particular conference is.Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
No one thinks that.Quote:
Originally Posted by missingnumber7
(I've been waiting for a couple of days for my registration to be approved so I could provide that response. Thanks to the moderators, who I am sure have their hands full.)
Unlike a lot of boards we like our competition to post here. Welcome.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaxSinfonian
We only bash each other for the most part.
Some days you may need a sealtbelt here.
Thanks. The Gamecocks have a few games to win before JSU can be competition for NDSU. And so do the Bison, for that matter. Still, it's great to have a reason to visit Bisonville to check out your fans' opinions.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUSR
So you have to love not seeing any MVFC teams on your side of the bracket, correct? McNeese provides little in your way.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaxSinfonian
As far as the NCAA Committee goes someone should send them these numbers. On second thought why bother, can't fix stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
I don't think anyone who follows JSU was breathing any sighs of relief at that, nor were we thinking much about the number of MVFC teams in our half of the bracket. I don't think there's any such thing as an "easy" path to the playoffs. And really, as a longtime visitor to AGS who is weary of the "OVC teams don't belong" comments, getting an MVFC team or two at our place would have been a great opportunity for the Gamecocks to change the story.Quote:
Originally Posted by FFBison
Also, I think plenty of us were somewhat annoyed at seeing Chattanooga as a potential first opponent. Part of the joy of the playoffs for fans is facing unfamiliar competition. We in Jacksonville never tire of seeing the Cocks beat the Mocs, but we've already had that joy this season. Safe to say that many of us will be pulling for Fordham in the first round.
As for McNeese, they'd have to buck lots of history just to get past the second round, right? JSU was a member of the Southland from 1995-2002 for football. McNeese was the only conference team the Gamecocks never beat in that time, so it was sweet to see JSU absolutely dominate the Cowboys in the second round on the road in 2013. For the sake of novelty, I'd prefer one of the CAA teams if JSU reaches the semifinals.
No matter the opponent, it's just great to be making plans for a home game in December.
You mean like seeing SDSU in our first game...been there done that.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaxSinfonian
SDSU first, UnI second, ISU third.....God for BsQuote:
Originally Posted by missingnumber7
If Montana wins, it's the THIRD time playing NDSU in 15 months. If SDSU wins its FOURTH time in 13 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaxSinfonian
Team................... Rd1.... Rd2..... Qtr... Semi.. Final
Jacksonville State............ 82.3% 68.5% 50.4% 20.4%
Chattanooga......... 77.4%. 16.3%. 9.6%. 4.3%.. 1.1%
Fordham.............. 22.6%.. 1.4%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%. 0.0%
Charleston Southern ........ 58.2% 11.5%. 3.4%.. 0.5%
Coastal Carolina.... 57.6%. 24.0%. 5.9%.. 2.1%. 0.4%
The Citadel........... 42.4%. 17.8%. 4.0%.. 1.3%. 0.3%
James Madison................ 91.3% 44.7% 17.8%. 4.7%
New Hampshire..... 74.2%.. 7.6%. 1.4%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%
Colgate................ 25.8%.. 1.1%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
McNeese State................ 62.9% 36.8% 14.1%.. 3.5%
Sam Houston State 57.0%. 20.9%. 9.5%.. 3.6%. 0.9%
Southern Utah....... 43.0% 16.1%.. 7.4%. 2.7%.. 0.7%
North Dakota State.......... 85.1% 69.7% 40.7% 30.2%
Montana............... 33.7%.. 2.3%. 0.7%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
South Dakota State 66.3% 12.6%.. 6.5%.. 2.5%. 1.4%
Portland State................. 53.6%.. 9.8%. 2.8%.. 1.1%
Northern Iowa....... 87.4% 44.2% 13.2%.. 5.1%. 2.9%
Eastern Illinois...... 12.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
Richmond....................... 58.5%.. 9.3%. 1.5%.. 0.5%
William & Mary..... 93.5%. 41.0%.. 8.9%. 1.9%.. 0.8%
Duquesne.............. 6.5%... 0.5%. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%
Illinois State................... 91.1% 78.1% 44.9% 30.4%
Dayton.................. 8.3%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
Western Illinois..... 91.7%.. 8.9%.. 3.6%. 0.6%.. 0.2%
Chance we play SDSU in round 2: 66.3%
Assuming we win, chance we play UNI in the quarters: 44.2%
Assuming we win, chance we play Ill St or W Ill in the semi: 81.7%
My cipherin' ain't as good as Jethro Bodine's, but I'd say the MVFC is pert near the best conference in the U. S. of A.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Thanks for posting that, bisonaudit. Questions: Would JMU be favored over McNeese in the Quarters? How much would Illinois State be favored over the Bison in the Semis?
So that's a 93.8% chance that the team coming out of the bottom half of the bracket going to Frisco is a MVFC team. Might as well call the bottom part of the bracket the MIT (MVFC Invitational Tournament).Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
JMU would be 1/2 favorite on a neutral field. As it is they're currently a 2 point road dog 55.9% McNeese 44.1% JMU.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
NDSU @ Ill St is a pick 'em 50.3% Ill St 49.7% NDSU.
You are correct sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
Very high probability the 2 best teams will NOT meet in Frisco. Good job selection committeeQuote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
A chalk Sagarin bracket would have MVFC teams only losing to other MVFC teams, there are several squeakers though ( 2nd round UNI @ PSU, Jax St final, 1st round SDSU @ Mont).
15% chance MVFC drops zero non-conference games.
It predicts Portland over UNI, but then UNI has a better chance in the remaining games? How does that work?
Also, a computer doesn't know Montana was on its 3rd string QB for half the season. With Gustafson back they're a dark horse for the whole grid.
Bye week and home field. Also, it doesn't predict PSU over UNI. Just a better chance of PSU advancing to the next round. UNI has to win twice to advance to that spot, PSU only once.Quote:
Originally Posted by taper
Isn't PSU's rank plus home field plus bye greater than UNI's rank? How is PSU not predicted over UNI?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
It's a squeaker. PSU 60.01 + 2.68 home + 2.61 bye = 65.30 < UNI 65.50. 50.6% UNI. Pick 'em.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
I diagree Montana does not survive a SDSU game then NDSU, then ISURQuote:
Originally Posted by taper
no way they go 3-0 against MvFC teams should it go that way
That's not what he meant. He just meant MT is a dark horse.Quote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
Sent from my iPhone.
dark horse for what then? usually the way he stated it he thinks with Brady back they could win it all...and I don't think they willQuote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
not sure what you mean
As in sleeper/under rated/most likely non-seed to win it all-->not that they will.Quote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
This is how I took it.
Sent from my iPhone.
umm...ok that's what I said, splitting hairs here I thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Then you should have agreed with him, not disagree.Quote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
Sent from my iPhone.
I do not agree they are the dark horse to win it all....I stated my reason why they are not, I think you are not reading it rightQuote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Definition of a dark horse:
b :an entrant in a contest that is judged unlikely to succeed
Have to love bisonville we argue even when we agree. :hide:
Sent from Win8 phone on a bullet train from Hillsboro.
Holy crap, don't you guys have better things to do? Dark horse = team that isn't expected to win but just might. Out of SDSU, UNI, and Montana, UM is the one I'm most worried about beating us. Mostly because UNI always finds a way to piss away the playoffs.
Never seen a true 0.00 pickem. ISUr's home field advantage is exactly the same as our rating advantage(to two decimal places).
The 16pt advantage we have over Montana this week is something of a mirage. Sag can't take into effect the return of Mont's QB. Their rating would be much higher if you only consider the games he played in.
Sagarin's 2015 Playoff Round 2 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
59 North Dakota State 72.17
110 Montana 58.72 +10.77 -3.00 -13.77
162 Weber State 47.65 +27.20 +27.00 -0.20
142 North Dakota 50.29 +24.56 +25.00 +0.44
89 South Dakota State 64.11 +5.38 +21.00 +15.62
81 Northern Iowa 66.42 +8.43 +3.00 -5.43
144 South Dakota 50.04 +24.81 -3.00 -27.81
134 Indiana State 51.59 +17.90 +14.00 -3.90
120 Southern Illinois 55.22 +14.27 +6.00 -8.27
115 Western Illinois 57.29 +17.56 +52.00 +34.44
112 Youngstown State 58.58 +10.91 +3.00 -7.91
227 Missouri State 30.30 +44.55 +55.00 +10.45
110 Montana 58.72 +16.13
105 Portland State 59.94 +14.91
81 Northern Iowa 66.42 +8.43
68 Illinois State 69.49 +0.00
82 Jacksonville State 66.21 +5.96
Total Diff: -6.34
Home Field 2.68
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 59 72.17 North Dakota State
2 68 69.49 Illinois State
3 81 66.42 Northern Iowa
4 82 66.21 Jacksonville State
5 89 64.11 South Dakota State
6 95 62.07 Chattanooga
7 98 61.27 Sam Houston State
8 101 60.60 Southern Utah
9 102 60.31 James Madison
10 104 60.11 McNeese State
11 105 59.94 Portland State
12 107 59.88 Harvard
13 110 58.72 Montana
14 111 58.59 William & Mary
15 112 58.58 Youngstown State
16 113 58.36 The Citadel
17 114 57.75 Dartmouth
18 115 57.29 Western Illinois
19 117 56.56 Coastal Carolina
20 118 56.05 Richmond
21 120 55.22 Southern Illinois
22 121 54.71 Charleston Southern
23 126 52.88 Villanova
24 127 52.84 Samford
25 130 52.33 Western Carolina
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 79.23 8
2 SEC 77.40 11
3 PAC-12 75.72 11
4 ACC 75.54 11
5 BIG TEN 75.31 9
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS 73.24 3
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 67.87 6
8 MWC 61.06 3
9 MAC 59.91 3
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 58.41 1
11 CONFERENCE USA 55.20 2
12 SUN BELT 54.46 2
13 BIG SKY 48.61 1
14 SOUTHERN 46.96 1
15 COLONIAL 45.86 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.69 1
17 IVY LEAGUE 44.40 1
18 BIG SOUTH 42.10 1
19 SOUTHLAND 41.01 1
20 PATRIOT 35.69 1
21 NORTHEAST 34.44 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.43 1
23 SWAC 26.83 1
24 PIONEER 24.97 1
And Sag didn't do all that well in the first round. Only 5-3. Humans who knew what they were doing(not Fargo media) were picking 6 or 7 correct.
Team....................... Rd2..... Qtr... Semi.. Final
Jacksonville State.... 75.8% 62.2% 45.8% 18.2%
Chattanooga........... 24.2% 15.9%.. 7.5%.. 2.2%
Charleston Southern 54.8% 11.0%.. 3.2%.. 0.5%
The Citadel............. 45.2% 10.9%.. 4.0%. 0.8%
James Madison........ 94.2% 44.7% 17.7%. 4.4%
Colgate.................... 5.8%.. 0.5%. 0.0%.. 0.0%
McNeese State........ 62.0% 36.8% 14.4%.. 3.5%
Sam Houston State.. 38.0% 18.1%.. 7.3%. 2.0%
North Dakota State.. 91.6% 72.8% 42.8% 32.0%
Montana................... 8.4%.. 2.5%.. 0.6%. 0.2%
Portland State.......... 46.5%.. 8.1%. 2.3%. 1.0%
Northern Iowa.......... 53.5% 16.5%.. 6.9%. 4.1%
Richmond................ 58.1%.. 9.2%. 1.3%.. 0.4%
William & Mary......... 41.9%.. 8.5%. 1.6%.. 0.6%
Illinois State............ 90.2% 78.1% 43.8% 29.9%
Western Illinois.......... 9.8%. 4.2%.. 0.6%.. 0.2%
Poor poor Colgate..
Heck, Montana isn't much better off. In the absence of Tatanka: LOL@big fluffyQuote:
Originally Posted by MrSnuffleupagus
Team....................... Qtr... Semi.. Final
Jacksonville State.... 83.2% 60.7% 23.1%
Charleston Southern 16.8%.. 7.6%.. 1.1%
Colgate.................... 9.6%.. 0.7%.. 0.0%
Sam Houston State.. 90.4% 31.1%.. 8.1%
North Dakota State.. 73.3% 42.0% 31.0%
Northern Iowa......... 26.7% 10.6%.. 6.3%
Richmond............... 14.7%.. 2.3%.. 0.8%
Illinois State............ 85.3% 45.0% 29.6%