Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
well the bottom of the fluffy sucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
well the bottom of the fluffy sucks
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.66 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
S Ill 71.5% (-10.7 percentage points from last week)
Ind St 93.7% (-0.2)
Ill St 99.5% (-0.1)
YSU 71.9% (-8.4)
USD 98.9% (-0.5)
11-0 47.5% (-12.6)
10-1 41.3% (+7.8)
9-2 10.5% (+4.5)
8-3 0.7% (-0.3)
7-4 0.01%
6-5 0.00003%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
MAC 59.88 (+0.39 from last week)
CUSA 59.80 (-0.16)
Sn Blt 58.62 (-0.29)
MVFC 57.44 (+0.68)
[/QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!!
NDSU's 75.41 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
9th in the Big Ten (-2)
8th in the Big 12 (-1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (-1)
10th in the SEC (-1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!![/QUOTE]
NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 while
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.
So, you figure this into the game vs Illinois State and any teams remaining on the schedule that come off of bye weeks when they play NDSU?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Or is this just a copy-and-paste residual?
NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 whileQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.[/QUOTE]
One big silver lining I saw in Saturday's game is that if folks think they can just line up in a 3-4 and give NDSU fits, it won't work. Brock was dialed in on Saturday and everyone knows he wants to run the table. He keeps doing that, these 3-4's will get shredded.
Figured into the Illinois State prediction. None of our remaining opponents are playing us coming off of their bye week.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
One big silver lining I saw in Saturday's game is that if folks think they can just line up in a 3-4 and give NDSU fits, it won't work. Brock was dialed in on Saturday and everyone knows he wants to run the table. He keeps doing that, these 3-4's will get shredded.[/QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
^^^THIS^^^ Both UNI and MSU left the deep middle of the field wide open. I have complete faith in the team to pass the ball if 3-4 teams sell out to beat the rushing attack. Brock was a machine Saturday!