2015 Sagarin Says

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Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor

Would it be too time consuming to do the same analysis above my comment on the top 5 or 6 teams in the nation? That way, we could look at likely seed positions for the playoffs.

Or maybe that snapshot is only done after 4 or 5 games as the data becomes "stronger" as the season progresses.

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Maybe a little something like this?

Attachment 6149

And this?

Attachment 6150

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Maybe a little something like this?

Attachment 6149

And this?

Attachment 6150

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Man, those bottom graphs will really change after the NDSU/SDSU game. NDSU and SDSU are fairly evenly split between two to three possible records. That uncertainty is because the NDSU/SDSU is a dead heat* according to the model. Once that game is done, both xDSU graphs will have a single, dominate prediction.


*straight Sag model is SDSU by 1.75, adapted to include bye week has NDSU by a bit less than a point

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Man, those bottom graphs will really change after the NDSU/SDSU game. NDSU and SDSU are fairly evenly split between two to three possible records. That uncertainty is because the NDSU/SDSU is a dead heat* according to the model. Once that game is done, both xDSU graphs will have a single, dominate prediction.


*straight Sag model is SDSU by 1.75, adapted to include bye week has NDSU by a bit less than a point

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Yeah, I don't know if they'll get quite as peaked as Jax St or SHSU, but that sure looks like the most important game of the year right now.

UNI and Cal Poly this week is the only game remaining for the team I compiled that's closer.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Maybe a little something like this?

Attachment 6149

And this?

Attachment 6150

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Oh...me likey! Thank you. So we'll make the playoffs is my belief, even a 7-4 Bison team makes it. What this paints right now is that we might be on the road for the semi's and perhaps even quarterfinals. That will be interesting. Jax State sounds like, looks like the real deal.

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Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor

Oh...me likey! Thank you. So we'll make the playoffs is my belief, even a 7-4 Bison team makes it. What this paints right now is that we might be on the road for the semi's and perhaps even quarterfinals. That will be interesting. Jax State sounds like, looks like the real deal.

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Either that or the class of a weak conference.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Either that or the class of a weak conference.

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Weak conference or not, you don't take Auburn to OT without being a legit contender.

Tatesbitch, I'm curious as to why you seem confident that 7-4 will get NDSU in? Just based on reputation or what? Remember we don't have a FBS win this year. I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious of your thinking. Hopefully it doesn't come to that anyway.

Also, how is your wife?

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Originally Posted by Gully

Tatesbitch, I'm curious as to why you seem confident that 7-4 will get NDSU in? Just based on reputation or what? Remember we don't have a FBS win this year. I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious of your thinking. Hopefully it doesn't come to that anyway.

Also, how is your wife?

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The day the NCAA stops caring about regionalization is the day a 7-4 NDSU team that can sell ~19000 tickets to a first round matchup doesn't get in the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by gotts

The day the NCAA stops caring about regionalization is the day a 7-4 NDSU team that can sell ~19000 tickets to a first round matchup doesn't get in the playoffs.

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Wait, are you implying the selection process isn't completely objective? I'm shocked <purple> :)

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Originally Posted by Gully

Wait, are you implying the selection process isn't completely objective? I'm shocked <purple> :)

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I bet you think the NCAA doesn't look out for the best interest of their student athletes either!