I just can't quite agree with you about 10-20 I believe that to be unrealistic we didn't beat anyone in the top 25 nor did any of our direct opponents I don't thinkk
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I just can't quite agree with you about 10-20 I believe that to be unrealistic we didn't beat anyone in the top 25 nor did any of our direct opponents I don't thinkk
I agree with the unbison here. I think 35 is about right. That being said, I think this team could beat a 15-25 ranked team. This is one game once in a while. The lack of depth with the lesser number of scholarships would be very painful over the course of a season. So this exact Bison team would have a very hard time breaking the top 30 over the course of a fbs season. Now give the program the 22 extra scholarships and project the gap closes through the depth chart, and then I would say they could have been a top 25 team with an fbs schedule.Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
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Not even close. I think 32 is a bit too high. Definately top 50 though. Maybe somewhere between 40-50.Quote:
Originally Posted by CaBisonFan
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/1...020sweexj5.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by CaBisonFan
Well I suppose I might as well do this again. Sorry about forgetting about it until now. I'm sure all -5 people who follow this thread were disappointed. Remember that Sagarin is not well connected yet, so take it with a huge grain of salt. We've got a couple more weeks before he stops using data from last year. The top-4 conferences needed to be expanded to top-5 this year due to the Southland displacing the SoCon for 4th place.
Sagarin's week 4 predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
50 North Dakota State 74.81
27 Kansas State 79.60 -10.08 + 3.00 +13.08
NA Ferris State NA NA +46.00 NA
225 Delaware State 38.55 +41.55
85 South Dakota State 66.56 + 2.96
86 Northern Iowa 66.50 +13.60
168 Missouri State 52.16 +27.94
103 Southern Illinois 62.89 + 6.63
129 Indiana State 58.92 +10.60
117 Illinois State 59.53 +20.57
121 Youngstown State 59.15 +10.37
179 South Dakota 48.99 +31.11
163 Western Illinois 53.08
Total Diff: +13.08
Home 5.29
Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:50 North Dakota State
80 Towson
83 Eastern Washington
84 Eastern Illinois
85 South Dakota State
86 Northern Iowa
90 Montana
92 Georgia Southern
100 Sam Houston State
101 Montana State
103 Southern Illinois
111 Central Arkansas
112 Richmond
114 Chattanooga
115 Villanova
117 Illinois State
118 William & Mary
120 Stony Brook
121 Youngstown State
124 Cal Poly
128 Old Dominion
129 Indiana State
130 SE Louisiana
132 McNeese State
133 Wofford
How long until somebody says that I'm using the wrong Sagarin numbers this year?Code:1. MVFC 60.02
2. Colonial 56.93
3. Big Sky 55.65
4. Southland 54.47
5. Southern 54.42
NDSU's 74.81 would rank:
4th in the American Athletic
7th in the ACC
9th in the Big Ten
8th in the Big 12
1st in Conference USA
1st in the MAC
3rd in the MWC
10th in the PAC 12
13th in the SEC
1st in the Sun Belt
That's lame.
Don't worry, when KState beats Texas, we'll jump up quite a bitQuote:
Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10
Based on Sagarin's numbers (look no further than the 5.29 home field number for evidence its early) w/ 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Del St 99.9%
SDSU 58.7%
UNI 84.3%
Mo St 98.0%
S Ill 68.9%
Ind St 78.4%
Ill St 95.6%
YSU 77.9%
USD 98.9%
11-0 19.2%
10-1 38.1%
9-2 29.2%
8-3 11.1%
7-4 2.2%
6-5 0.2%
5-6 0.01%
4-7 0.0002%
3-8 0.000001%
2-9 0.000000001%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86.
How does the valley as a whole compare with the sun beltQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit