Check Hammersmith's post 1352 for Sagarin's conference weighting methodology. I haven't punched the numbers, but MVFC without NDSU probably wouldn't change a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strongman
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Check Hammersmith's post 1352 for Sagarin's conference weighting methodology. I haven't punched the numbers, but MVFC without NDSU probably wouldn't change a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strongman
The answer to all your questions is almost nothing at all. Since NDSU is the top team of the MVFC and would be the top team of every G5 conference, we have very little impact. And the larger the conference, the smaller the impact.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strongman
MVFC: 1/30 of the conference rating
AAC: 1/36
SBC: 1/36
MWC: 1/42
C-USA: 1/49
MAC: 1/49
For instance, the 13-team MAC w/o NDSU is 57.36. A 13-team MAC with the top team replaced w/ NDSU is 57.57. A 14-team MAC w/ NDSU is 58.34.
Since the next conference above the MAC is C-USA at 60.19, you can see that even the best case doesn't make that much of a difference. And even most of the jump in the last number isn't actually coming directly from NDSU. It's really coming from NDSU bumping the top half MAC teams down into slots that are worth more, and bumping the bottom half MAC teams into slots that count less.
Ahhhh, but I think the harder question to answer is what boost conference teams get from playing the bison and playing teams that play the bison... I agree with you on your conference weighting however I'm pretty sure even the middle teams get a boost from the bison on their schedule, don't they? :)
Sent from somewhere using my Windows Phone.
Only if they play well. SOS is more of an output than in input.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
I suddenly feel blissful for some reason.
An impressive jump from 34 last week to 28 this week for the Bison. Bison are one of just two teams with 9-0 records--Coastal Carolina (#85) is the other. Just three teams have 8-0 records: Mississippi State (5), Florida State (13) and Marshall (36).
Let the analysis begin!
Sounds like we must go FBS!Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalBison
You forgot the purple!Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Not really.
Where would they go? The MAC?
Probably my last one of these. Someone else can take over if they want. Over the last few months, coming to BV has become more like a chore to me than something I actually enjoy. So I think I'm going to walk away for awhile. Maybe a few weeks, maybe more. I left ss for the same reason after the missing NDSU student incident. I wasn't going to say anything, but I realized a few people might be expecting the weekly sagarin update and it would be rude to disappear without saying anything. So someone else can pick this up if they want; it's not exactly rocket science. Takes about a half hour each Sunday morning to do the whole thing.
Sagarin's Week 11 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
28 North Dakota State 79.93
61 Iowa State 70.06 +6.70 +20.00 +13.30
210 Weber State 39.80 +36.96 +17.00 -19.96
234 Incarnate Word 28.92 +54.18 +58.00 +3.82
131 Montana 56.30 +26.80 +12.00 -14.80
145 Western Illinois 53.90 +22.86 +7.00 -15.86
106 Southern Illinois 61.58 +21.52 +28.00 +6.48
98 Indiana State 62.53 +20.57 +17.00 -3.57
171 South Dakota 49.03 +27.73 +40.00 +12.27
87 South Dakota State 65.01 +18.09 +20.00 +1.91
77 Northern Iowa 67.22 +9.54
115 Missouri State 60.04 +16.72
110 Youngstown State 61.11 +21.99
62 Illinois State 69.94
Total Diff: -16.41
Home Field 3.17
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 28 North Dakota State
2 62 Illinois State
3 66 Jacksonville State
4 73 New Hampshire
5 77 Northern Iowa
6 82 Villanova
7 85 Coastal Carolina
8 87 South Dakota State
9 88 Harvard
10 89 Chattanooga
11 94 Richmond
12 96 Eastern Washington
13 97 Liberty
14 98 Indiana State
15 110 Youngstown State
16 108 SE Louisiana
17 115 Missouri State
18 101 Sam Houston State
19 100 McNeese State
20 106 Southern Illinois
21 113 Fordham
22 120 Samford
23 121 Idaho State
24 122 Eastern Illinois
25 127 Eastern Kentucky
Code:1. MVFC 62.76
2. Colonial 50.27
3. Southern 49.62
4. Big South 49.88
5. Southland 49.14
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, & Sun Belt
#4 in the ACC
#5 in the Big Ten
#6 in the Big 12
#7 in the PAC-12
#9 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 64.20
2. MWC 63.54
3. MVFC 62.76
4. C-USA 59.37
5. MAC 57.32
6. SBC 56.29
7. CAA 50.27
8. SoCon 49.62
9. Big South 49.88
10. SLC 49.14
Thank you for your past efforts, Hammer! I really enjoy these stats so hopefully someone will pick it up. I also understand the need to step away, so enjoy the break.
Thanks again!
Greatest thread on Bisonville. Hammer and Audit's efforts are appreciated.
Yep, I really look forward to this stuff. Two of the best posters on the board, for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Thanks Hammer for the update--completely understand. The time you put into this was much appreciated.
This is why we can't have nice things!
Tell me about it. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
It's very tempting just to go nuts the Ban Hammer... Very tempting. It's especially hard to lose a poster who posts more worthwhile stuff in a week than some posters will in a 100 years. If you want to PM to say what, if anything, you think can be done, I'm willing to listen (and that would include me turning the board over to somebody else.)
Rest up and see if you can be game ready for postseason.
Id say you do what you need to if talking about the mexican militia....there are others that follow him around that make it as annoyingQuote:
Originally Posted by tony
This times eleventy million. I've enjoyed Bisonville for a long time and appreciate Tony hosting and guys like Hammer with great info and reasonable outlooks. Free speech and right to opinions...wonderful concept but not too well reigned-in around here. It's a lot like when my bride (who I love dearly because of an outspoken nature among other qualities) insists in driving home a point repeatedly. I heard it the first damn time, and it registered. It's no wonder good people don't have the patience to deal with the declining quality of discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony
There a lot of other good posters that you don't see much anymore. Coincidence? I think not. Sometimes the only way to clean up the sh!t is with a shovel, or ban-hammer in this case.
Just an opinion. Rant over
Yea, thanks Hammer for the hard work. You were the one person I could always count on to have worthwhile stuff in this thread. Thanks again and drop in again.
Hammer and I have always enjoyed our corner court chats at halftime of basketball games at the BSA, I consider him a friend. Stick around Hammer!
This ^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by tony
Hammersmith is one of my favorite posters. Quality over quantity. He not only posts quality stuff, he disagrees with most people in a respectfull way. Hope his Bisonville Sabbatical is short!
Hammersmith sent me his worksheet, and I've got some formulas to pull the information from the weekly Sagarin updates, so I'll continue posting this information during his hiatus.
Hope to see ya back soon, Hammer.
Next man up!!Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Thank you bootfitter and Thank You Hammersmith!!!! This is a great thread!
Thanks for all the content through the years Hammersmith. Usually I get irritated with posters when they announce their upcoming absence. This time is different. I hope things get better to the point you are once again happy here. I look forward to your insight again soon.
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.17 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Northern Iowa 76.0% (-0.1% from last week)
Missouri State 89.1% (+3.9%)
Youngstown State 94.7% (+2.3%)
12-0 64.2% (+11.1% from last week)
11-1 31.6% (-5.5%)
10-2 4.0% (-4.9%)
9-3 0.1% (-0.8%)
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Audi, please don't retire!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers, my thankfulness for Hammer's work on this thread is INFINITE! Thanks so much!
Thanks for your willingness to do this, bootfitter. These updates are easily the most interesting thing on the board IMO. Hammer's and Audit's work is much appreciated. Hope to see Hammer back sooner than later.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
You kind of touched on it a bit, but does Sagarin (or can it be extrapolated from there) explore the % chance of a certain spread happening? For example, and looking specifically at NDSU vs. UNI, there is a 9% chance NDSU wins by 24+, 19% NDSU wins by 17+, 38% chance NDSU wins by 11+, etc. I guess you would just have to pick some point breaks in the spread, say +1, +5, +10, +15, +20, -1, -5, -10, -15, -20.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Does my question make sense? I may have confused myself.
Audit can probably answer this more clearly, but the short answer is yes. Audit's last paragraph gives the basis for making these calculations using Sagarin's standard deviation of roughly 14 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by runtheoption
NDSU's rating is 79.93. UNI's is 67.22. They get a 3.17 point bump for home field advantage, so we are favored by 9.54 points. Statistically, there is roughly 2/3 chance that the actual margin of victory is within 14 points either way of the 9.54 points in our favor. (Between a 4.5 pt victory for UNI and a 23.5 pt victory for NDSU.) There's a 1/6 chance that we have greater than a 23.5 pt victory and a 1/6 chance that UNI beats us by more than 4.5 pts.
The specific percentages for each point differential can be calculated as well, rather than just using the rough calculations from the full standard deviations of a normal distribution. Since it would take me a little bit of digging to make sure I got the calculations right, I'll be lazy and see if Audit whips something up first.
Edited to add: You weren't too far off in your example above, RTO, but you aren't giving the Bison enough credit. There's a roughly 16% chance that we win by 24+, and roughly 25% chance that we win by 19+. There's even a 2.5% chance that we win by 37+. But also a 2.5% chance that we lose by 18+.
Thanks to you for taking over during Hammersmith's hiatus, and for Audit as he continues his # crunching ways. BTW, did you know Hammersmith and I have the same last name? Esplaines his brainz.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Yes, it can be extrapolated. For entertainment purposes only, that's almost entirely the point. The fact that the variances are normally distributed around the model's estimate of the point spread with a standard deviation of about 14, allows an interested person to determine, based on the lines and prices offered, how much of an edge they may have and therefore how much to wager.Quote:
Originally Posted by runtheoption
If the UNI line is NDSU -9 1/2 (which is what Sagarin model thinks it is) there's a 50% chance NDSU wins by 9 1/2 or more (I know it's a little funky with the non continuous variable). There's about a 16% chance NDSU wins by 23 1/2 or more. There's 76% chance NDSU wins. There's about a 16% chance UNI wins by 4 1/2 or more.
Just in general regarding distance from the predicted spread about 67% of the results should fall within 14 points on either side of the predicted result (evenly distributed above and below the prediction) and about 95% of the results should fall within 28 points on either side of the predicted result.
Ha ha! I just noticed that, actually. He gotz all the brainz with that name, eh? That DOES make sense!Quote:
Originally Posted by runtheoption
Because everyone knows that scores follow a normal distribution...
They pretty much do, though. There's just a little bumpiness to the distribution because of the way points are scored, as Audit pointed out.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
Audit, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you can use this calculator:Quote:
Originally Posted by runtheoption
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/normal.aspx
"Mean" = Sagarin's projected point spread (9.54 for the UNI game).
"Standard deviation" = Sagarin's standard deviation (13.86 or 14 if you want to round).
"Normal random variable" would be the desired spread that you want to check.
Leave "Cumulative probability" blank, as the calculator will give that as an output.
The way the website calculates it, the "Cumulative probability" that is given as an output is the probability that NDSU wins by the point spread or less or loses (multiply by 100 to get %). If you want the probability that NDSU wins by more than the point spread you input, take 1 minus "Cumulative probability" (multiply by 100 to get %).
Yep, that's pretty handy! Works beautifully.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonboone11
You won't regret the time away. I've disconnected a few times and it's not the worst thing.
So I find it interesting that NDSU is only 5-4 against the spread. But the more interesting thing to me is how the standard deviation is calculated. At plus or minus 14 points, our games have been within the standard deviation 6 out of the 9 times (which is what's supposed to happen). The rest of them are within 2 st. dev's (which is also supposed to happen), but they are all on the low side (meaning -14 to -28 of the mean). Do you think that is normal?? Is it simply a product of our average just being too high to be able to cover by 2+ TD's??