Sagarin says

NDSU was the only MVFC team to lose points compared to last week(we under-performed vs expectations against SIU). That's why the Valley's conference score jumped three and a half points and is now closer to the bottom FBS conference than the second place FCS conference. The other three top FCS conferences are almost in a dead heat, so it's easy for the number four conference last week to become the number two this week and vice versa. As for our ranking, we dropped several spots but are still in the top-40. We've under-performed against two teams(ISUb & SIU), over-performed against two(YSU & USD), and the other four games were within a TD of the prediction. I added the 11th team to the top-10 just for fun this week. The Valley has five of the top-eleven FCS teams according to Sagarin Predictor. Big Sky has three, and Southern, Southland and Ivy each have one.

Sagarin's predictions for week 9:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 38        North Dakota State        76.79                       
228        Robert Morris                33.51    +46.53    +52.00    + 5.47
134        Colorado State                57.32          +16.22    +15.00        - 1.22
235        Prairie View A&M        28.88          +51.16    +59.00        + 7.84
 90        Northern Iowa                64.61          + 8.93    +12.00        + 3.07
115        Youngstown State        60.20          +19.84    +41.00        +21.16
 69        Indiana State                69.41          +10.63    - 3.00        -13.63
191        South Dakota                45.73          +31.06    +54.00        +22.94
 95        Southern Illinois        63.39          +16.65    + 6.00        -10.65
146        Missouri State                56.15          +17.39               
100        South Dakota State        62.49          +17.55               
114        Illinois State                60.52          +13.02               
                                       
201        Western Illinois        41.53                       
                                       
        Home        3.25

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-11

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38  North Dakota State
 68  Sam Houston State
 69  Indiana State
 76  Georgia Southern
 86  Montana State
 89  Cal Poly
 90  Northern Iowa
 91  Eastern Washington
 92  Harvard
 95  Southern Illinois
100  South Dakota State

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Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        60.68
2.  Big Sky        55.48
3.  Southern        54.50
4.  Colonial        54.17

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On the question of top-half of Big Sky vs top half of Valley, let's be silly and use the Sag numbers to compare. (I'm bored but don't want to get out of bed yet.)

Top 5 Valley teams averaged: 67.34
Top 6.5 Big Sky teams averaged: 61.25

So... Valley wins by a little less than a TD.

How about matchups. This is a little tougher due to the different conference sizes. I'll do my best to be fair.

NDSU vs MSU-----NDSU by 11.20
ISUb vs CP-------ISUb by 4.74
ISUb vs EWU-----ISUb by 4.84
SIU vs NAU-------SIU by 2.47
UNI vs PSU-------UNI by 6.87
SDSU vs SUU-----SDSU by 6.06
SDSU vs UM------SDSU by 6.14

So... The Valley goes 7-0 in these hypothetical matchups. Granted, all but the NDSU/MSU matchup are within a TD. So, Sag says the two conferences are very close, but the edge goes to MVFC in every way.

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/i...EgzVi3MuNSBrpw

Take that Big SKy NERdS!!!

I heart Sagarin!

It's amazing that the predictor for the last three conf games dropped by almost 10 points. Did we get worse or did they all get better?

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Originally Posted by Bisonwinagn

It's amazing that the predictor for the last three conf games dropped by almost 10 points. Did we get worse or did they all get better?

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Yes. We dropped by over 3pts, and they all raised by the rest. It worked out nicely that both this week's and last week's results are the top posts on this page and last. Just use the forward and back buttons of your browser to compare.

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Yes. We dropped by over 3pts, and they all raised by the rest. It worked out nicely that both this week's and last week's results are the top posts on this page and last. Just use the forward and back buttons of your browser to compare.

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Or just open up a new window and have them side by side. :)

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Originally Posted by Bisonguy

Or just open up a new window and have them side by side. :)

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so only two more people can comment on this in order to maintain the pattern.

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Originally Posted by Tatanka

so only two more people can comment on this in order to maintain the pattern.

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How about two monitors and then you can go full screen on the comparisons.

Sagarin was close for the first 4 games and then it's been all over the place since then. I wonder if that's due to our opponents or inconsistencies with the Bison.

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Sagarin's predictions for week 8:

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 31        North Dakota State        79.94                       
221        Robert Morris                32.76    +49.77    +52.00    + 2.23
139        Colorado State                54.29          +23.06    +15.00        - 8.06
234        Prairie View A&M        26.40          +56.13    +59.00        + 2.87
 80        Northern Iowa                66.12          +11.23    +12.00        + 0.77
122        Youngstown State        58.39          +24.14    +41.00        +16.86
 90        Indiana State                64.26          +18.27    - 3.00        -21.27
188        South Dakota                43.95          +35.99    +54.00        +18.01
128        Southern Illinois        57.34          +25.19               
168        Missouri State                48.64          +28.71               
121        South Dakota State        58.99          +23.54               
134        Illinois State                55.34          +22.01               
                                       
200        Western Illinois        40.62                       
                                       
        Home        2.59

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