Accounting was never one of my strengths! I take my $20, put it in my pocket and go home a winner!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
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Accounting was never one of my strengths! I take my $20, put it in my pocket and go home a winner!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.44 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Southern Illinois 82.3% (-8.0% from last week)
Indiana State 88.6% (-7.7%)
South Dakota 92.8% (+2.6%)
South Dakota State 83.6% (+7.2%)
Northern Iowa 61.6% (-3.5%)
Missouri State 71.9% (-7.0%)
Youngstown State 88.4% (-3.1%)
12-0 22.1% (-4.8% from last week)
11-1 39.1% (-1.6%)
10-2 27.0% (+3.1%)
9-3 9.6% (+2.4%)
8-4 1.9% (+0.7%)
7-5 0.2% (+0.1%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0003%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
What would Sagarin have the odds of us Quading and winning the next 10 (3 home playoffs and Frisco? 18%?
No way to know. You'd need to know who the playoff opponents are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strongman
I am not going to go do all the figuring out, that's stuff you guys like to do. Say everything starts similar to today, that would be the last half of the season and then the 8, 4, & 2 teams. That is worse case scenario.
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Swap out the 4 and 8 for an ovc and hbcu team... that would be much more realistic.
Check out post 1267 for some perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strongman
Up to 39. Above Iowa. (Sorry Deputy Hawk but i liked the nice tweet!) . looking forward to Hammers post and even more to audit as the thumping has to help the odds of perfection.
I'm surprised about our big jump. That and a couple other things makes me wonder about last week's ratings. I wish I would have looked at them yesterday to see if they had changed since last Sunday. But the MVFC continues its dominance. Less than a point separates the AAC, MWC & MVC. Half the FCS top-10 is from the Valley. Our game vs. UNI is opening up, and SDSU is now a 2-TD prediction. I noticed today that there were a couple small errors in the MAC portion of my spreadsheet. I think it means I had the MAC just a tiny bit higher than they should have been. But not enough to shift their position in relation to other conferences. Oh, and the Big Sky dropped out of the FCS top-5; Tatanka will be pleased. But you won't believe which team is sitting at 26th.
Sagarin's Week 8 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
39 North Dakota State 76.99
62 Iowa State 70.61 +3.09 +20.00 +16.91
210 Weber State 41.76 +31.94 +17.00 -14.94
240 Incarnate Word 26.44 +53.84 +58.00 +4.16
115 Montana 59.35 +20.93 +12.00 -8.93
145 Western Illinois 54.01 +19.69 +7.00 -12.69
88 Southern Illinois 64.66 +15.62 +28.00 +12.38
109 Indiana State 60.78 +19.50
162 South Dakota 50.41 +23.29
82 South Dakota State 65.82 +14.46
80 Northern Iowa 66.77 +6.93
104 Missouri State 61.47 +12.23
116 Youngstown State 59.22 +21.06
61 Illinois State 71.30
Total Diff: -3.11
Home Field 3.29
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 39 North Dakota State
2 61 Illinois State
3 71 New Hampshire
4 76 Villanova
5 78 Eastern Washington
6 80 Northern Iowa
7 81 Jacksonville State
8 82 South Dakota State
9 85 McNeese State
10 88 Southern Illinois
11 90 Sam Houston State
12 91 Coastal Carolina
13 101 Harvard
14 102 SE Louisiana
15 104 Missouri State
16 105 Chattanooga
17 107 Richmond
18 109 Indiana State
19 110 Eastern Kentucky
20 115 Montana
21 116 Youngstown State
22 118 Montana State
23 121 Fordham
24 129 Samford
25 130 Bethune-Cookman
Code:1. MVFC 63.09
2. Colonial 50.24
3. Southern 50.05
4. Southland 49.85
5. Ohio Valley 49.06
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the AAC, MAC, MWC, & Sun Belt
#2 in C-USA
#5 in the Big Ten
#6 in the ACC
#7 in the Big 12
#9 in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 63.82
2. MWC 63.19
3. MVFC 63.09
4. C-USA 60.67
5. MAC 56.42
6. SBC 54.43
7. CAA 50.24
8. Socon 50.05
9. SLC 49.85
10. OVC 49.06
just keep doubling the predictor every week, and NDSU will be back in the top 25. again.
Okay, I'll bite, who?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
LOL where's the big fluffy?
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26. 131 Idaho State 56.72Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonNeil
Holy shit. That ain't no small potatoes lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonNeil
I had looked at Sagarin early this morning before this week was posted--and last week's rankings hadn't been adjusted during the week. Also, Bison are ranked 17 in ELO. Just another good week to be a Bison fan.
Them bad Canadian teams sure help the rating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.29 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Indiana State 92.5% (+3.9% from last week)
South Dakota 95.7% (+2.9%)
South Dakota State 85.7% (+2.1%)
Northern Iowa 69.6% (+8.0%)
Missouri State 81.7% (+9.8%)
Youngstown State 94.0% (+5.6%)
12-0 40.6% (+18.4% from last week)
11-1 41.2% (+2.2%)
10-2 15.3% (-11.8%)
9-3 2.7% (-6.9%)
8-4 0.2% (-1.7%)
7-5 0.01% (-0.2%)
6-6 0.0002%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Well, I just scheduled every Friday after Thanksgiving off through the end of the year. I want to be prepared in case we end up with a Friday night game.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I knew the probability of undefeated would take a big jump, but my goodness.....Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Does Iowa State beating Toledo (one of the top teams in the MAC) help give NDSU a boost?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Iowa State's rating increased from the previous week by almost a point, so that would contribute to our rating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Christopher Moen
About 1/3 of it is just the fact that we've got one less game we need to win and the other 2/3 is that the model is now giving us a better shot at winning the remaining games, most notably the UNI and Mo St games.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Always good to be a Bison fan! It is worth noting, however, that the ELO ranking is the least accurate for predicting future games. If I recall correctly, no consideration is given to the scores of games when this is calculated -- just the W or L.Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalBison
While we are improving, and think it should be obvious to all, that we are not yet a true top 25 team; we may get there, however.....Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
What more do they have to do to earn it?Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
The reality is it is tough when you don't play in a P5 conference. I would say, that just from the eye ball test, for me, they are not quite where last years team was. If they can dominate some of these very good teams coming up, particularly UNI at UNI, I may come around and say they are as good as last year. Last year's team literally blew the doors off everyone, including the best of the best in the playoffs and that is why the predictor had them in the top 25 which I have little doubt was accurate.Quote:
Originally Posted by gizmo
I think they figuratively blew the doors off everyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Not so sure about that...... :)Quote:
Originally Posted by runtheoption
So, I looked back at the predictions Sagarin's model generated prior to each of the last 30 games (I had no numbers for KSU and Ferris so I used the lowest percentage chance from all the other games for KSU and the highest for Ferris). This streak is pretty amazing, even as highly as the model has rated us over the last three seasons the chances of winning those 30 games consecutively comes out to about 1 in 133.
Also, when do the 'streaking the quad' t-shirts start showing up? 01/11/15?
He calls it ELO_SCORE now, and the description makes it sound like it is slightly score based, but the description seems to be missing some details. I'm not sure what a fraction of a victory is.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
What record during these 30 games had the highest probability of occurring (if it's not too much trouble:))?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
[Edit: It just occurred to me that a playoff loss would've changed the number of games we played, so maybe this isn't possible.]
Well so much for going with the old Pascal's Triangle approach. Which was coming up with 26-4 without the complicating factor of the playoff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strategery
Moved up to 37 this week. I look forward to the full analysis....
Not too much to say. Big South moves into the top 5 conferences; OVC out. Big Sky still out. Overall, MVFC teams moved up in the top-25. Eight Valley teams in the top-20. Need to beat USD by 3 TDs & a FG to meet the prediction this weekend.
Sagarin's Week 9 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
37 North Dakota State 77.28
66 Iowa State 70.42 +3.63 +20.00 +16.37
208 Weber State 42.35 +31.70 +17.00 -14.70
240 Incarnate Word 27.42 +53.09 +58.00 +4.91
120 Montana 58.08 +22.43 +12.00 -10.43
141 Western Illinois 54.53 +19.52 +7.00 -12.52
100 Southern Illinois 62.33 +18.18 +28.00 +9.82
110 Indiana State 60.51 +20.00 +17.00 -3.00
167 South Dakota 49.25 +24.80
76 South Dakota State 67.20 +13.31
84 Northern Iowa 65.11 +8.94
98 Missouri State 62.39 +11.66
109 Youngstown State 60.67 +19.84
62 Illinois State 71.00
Total Diff: -9.55
Home Field 3.23
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 37 North Dakota State
2 62 Illinois State
3 72 New Hampshire
4 74 Villanova
5 76 South Dakota State
6 78 Jacksonville State
7 84 Northern Iowa
8 87 Coastal Carolina
9 88 McNeese State
10 89 Eastern Washington
11 94 SE Louisiana
12 98 Missouri State
13 100 Southern Illinois
14 103 Chattanooga
15 104 Richmond
16 105 Sam Houston State
17 109 Youngstown State
18 110 Indiana State
19 111 Harvard
20 117 Fordham
21 120 Montana
22 122 Liberty
23 124 Eastern Kentucky
24 127 Eastern Illinois
25 128 Montana State
Code:1. MVFC 62.92
2. Colonial 50.46
3. Big South 50.33
4. Southland 49.57
5. Southern 49.38
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the AAC, MAC, MWC, & Sun Belt
#2 in C-USA
#5 in the Big Ten
#6 in the ACC
#7 in the Big 12
#8 in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 63.93
2. MWC 63.88
3. MVFC 62.92
4. C-USA 60.45
5. MAC 56.76
6. SBC 54.63
7. CAA 50.46
8. Big South 50.33
9. SLC 49.57
10. Socon 49.38
LOL @ Big fluffy
/obligatory
Sent from somewhere using my Windows Phone.
Montana really dropped.
No surprise, Fluffy teamQuote:
Originally Posted by A1pigskin
Only one spot. They've been steadily moving down all season. The computer model doesn't like them near as much as the pollsters.Quote:
Originally Posted by A1pigskin
edit: Okay, maybe not steadily, but the overall trend has downward since week 2.
pre - 10
week 2 - 14
week 3 - 7
week 4 - 9
week 5 - 10
week 6 - 12
week 7 - 23
week 8 - 20
week 9 - 21
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.23 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
South Dakota 96.6% (+0.9% from last week)
South Dakota State 83.8% (-1.9%)
Northern Iowa 74.6% (+5.0%)
Missouri State 80.6% (-1.1%)
Youngstown State 92.8% (-1.2%)
12-0 45.1% (+4.6% from last week)
11-1 40.1% (-1.2%)
10-2 12.9% (-2.4%)
9-3 1.8% (-0.9%)
8-4 0.1% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.002%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
What are the odds of holding USD scoreless for three straight years?