The best part of looking at all these threads today is finding wonderful little nuggets like this. What a beautiful day!Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalo Bill
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The best part of looking at all these threads today is finding wonderful little nuggets like this. What a beautiful day!Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalo Bill
11-0 56.5%
10-1 37.6%
9-2 5.8%
8-3 0.2%
Ranked #50 according to Sagarin. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
Kind of amazing to see us ranked higher than teams like Cal, BYU, South Florida, Purdue, Iowa, Mississippi etc.
Us vs. the Trees this week. NDSU 71.24, Trees 59.40 plus three for the Trees being at home so NDSU by 8.84. We need to be ready!
Things are pretty quiet in this week's installment, and don't expect that to change from here on out. Sagarin now has enough data that future changes will be incremental rather than abrupt. The only noticeable change is Minnesota gaining 12 spots because of their recent good play. NDSU and UNI continue to be the clear 1/2 in FCS, with a big lead over MSU(80), GSU(82), SHSU(84), and Wofford(86). The conference gap between the Southern and the Valley continues to close, with only one point now separating us. The Sky and CAA continue their slow slide.
Week 10
Week 9Code:rate predict actual diff
59 North Dakota State 71.75
74 Northern Iowa 68.81 + 5.49 + 8.00 +2.51
101 Illinois State 62.18 +12.12 +10.00 -2.12
105 Minnesota 60.77 + 8.43 +13.00 +4.57
110 Youngstown State 59.97 +14.33
119 Indiana State 58.99 +10.21 + 9.00 -1.21
157 Southern Illinois 51.50 +17.70 + 6.00 -11.70
163 South Dakota State 50.60 +18.60 +24.00 +5.40
173 Missouri State 47.73 +26.57 +30.00 +3.43
194 Lafayette 43.40 +30.90 +36.00 +5.10
197 Western Illinois 43.04 +26.16
235 Saint Francis-Pa 28.97 +45.33 +53.00 +7.67
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
59 North Dakota State 71.24
68 Northern Iowa 69.42 + 4.46 + 8.00 +3.54
105 Illinois State 61.76 +12.12 +10.00 -2.12
114 Youngstown State 59.75 +14.13
115 Indiana State 59.40 + 9.20
117 Minnesota 58.85 + 9.75 +13.00 +3.25
154 Southern Illinois 52.58 +16.02 + 6.00 -10.02
165 South Dakota State 50.26 +18.34 +24.00 +5.66
175 Missouri State 47.66 +26.22 +30.00 +3.78
192 Western Illinois 43.97 +24.63
196 Lafayette 43.44 +30.44 +36.00 +5.56
233 Saint Francis-Pa 29.79 +44.09 +53.00 +8.91
Code:Week 10
1. SoCn 58.08
2. GWC 57.78
3. MVFC 57.08
4. BSC 55.50
5. CAA 52.52
Week 9
1. SoCn 58.73
2. GWC 58.25
3. MVFC 57.27
4. BSC 56.05
5. CAA 53.86
Great West conference #2? Give me a break.
Not that it means anything since the "predictor" is the best but we did jump to 41 in his sagarin rating and 26 in ELO-CHESS.
That just goes to show how messed up the BCS is, NDSU is almost a top 25 team in one of it's rating systems.
Yeah, it's total BS. I just ignore it and suggest everyone else do the same. While I list them in my list, I actually consider it a top-four and not a top-five. The Great West just has too many non-DI teams on their schedules and it completely skews their results. They are just a mathematical oddity.Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonNeil
And I sometimes get the feeling that a few posters wonder why I use the Sagarin numbers that I do and not the main column that everyone else does. Especially when the Bison are way up at 41 in the combined standings. It's because of that damned Elo Chess rating that the BCS forces Sagarin to use. As of last night, the Bison are the number 26 team in the country according to that rating. Does anyone really believe that we should be sniffing the top-25? The same top-25 that has LSU at the top? I surely don't. We're got a damned good team, but not that good. But a rating that high is what happens when you ignore just about everything except the W/L record. By comparison, last week the Sagarin numbers I use predicted we would beat Indiana State by 9.2. We actually beat them by 9. I think I'll keep using the number I have been and let the BCS keep using the BS numbers.
BTW, Bison over YSU by 2 TDs.
edit: Do'h. Took me too long to post again.
11-0 83.2%
10-1 16.4%
9-2 0.4%
every bcs teams need 5+ losses, then ndsu is in the rose bowl:)
BS. I want 15-0Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Based on the sports network's projected bracket...Quote:
Originally Posted by WRSDBison
15-0 33.7%
lol(elo) chess says we are #26 lol.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
http://www.keywordy.net/images/break...ws_29331_2.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
This just in from correspondent Twentysix:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
SAY WHAT???????
I know i'd love to lose 52-10 on national tv :)Quote:
Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10
itd be worse. much worse, trust me.Quote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
Yeah, that's totally inflated. One look at the strength of schedule stat between North Dakota State (supposedly #155) and North Dakota (they of the non-scholly Drake and three NAIA teams, two of which are transitioning to D-II, supposedly at #145) tells you something's not right, assuming you're of sound mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonNeil
Yeah, pretty sad when by the end of the season will have played 4 possibly 5 top 25 FCS teams along with a BCS and the who fans still think they had a tougher scheduleQuote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
SIU #16
UNI #2
ISU-B #16
ISU-R is currently ranked and really hot
YSU is #23 in the GPI along with 5 other valley teams
Non d1 opponents aren't included in the SOS calc. It's a limitation in the formula.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
Precisely. A point that's often overlooked by the mouthbreathers.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
It's their way of skewing stats in their favor...Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
If we're not totally destroyed by injuries in the coming weeks, you'll get it.Quote:
Originally Posted by WRSDBison
I suppose this is the point where we start whispering "15-0" to each other...Quote:
Originally Posted by CaBisonFan
I've been trying to keep it in my head, but I guess it's gonna come out sooner or later...
Yep...it's here.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBisonator
We have the defensive consistency...and a ball possession offense. It's perfect in our conference, and perfect for a national title run in the FCS.
We 'must' have homefield however. If not...we've got a problem.
A juggernaut offensive opponent on the road would be the end of our run.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm #41
NDSU 71.75 Youngstown 59.97 plus three for Bison at home so Bison by 14.78
Completely unrelated to NDSU football but I found the schedule difficulty interesting especially considering what everyone says about Boise State.
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
5 Boise State A = 93.77 8 0 69.76( 49) 0 0 | 2 0 | 95.90 5 | 91.26 8
6 Stanford A = 92.51 9 0 67.91( 73) 0 0 | 1 0 | 90.82 8 | 93.59 4
There's no way that I'll understand the numbers...(ask my high school math teachers)...
...but could someone tell me how accurate this system could possibly be?
CA, watch the Sagarin numbers vs. what Vegas puts out as lines and they are very similar. You will not find a more accurate predictor to my knowledge.
'The computers' are killing Stanford in the BCS because all they're allowed to consider is W/L and SOS. They're 7th in the computers but 2nd and 3rd in the human polls. But look at the Sagarin predictor: Stanford 4th. Unfortunately the humans that run the BCS don't allow 'the computers' to use that calcuation or any other calculation that accounts for margin of victory and as a result Sagarin's BCS calc (elo chess) places Stanford 8th. 'The computers' are not the problem, it's the ninnies running the BCS who are the problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by JMB
Of course Sagarin's predictor still makes Alabama #2 but, if the season ended today I'd have no interest in seeing a rematch for the national title. They already lost at home to #1 LSU they had their shot so as long as there's no playoff and it's just one game on a neutral field for all the marbles, I don't think a rematch makes sense.
I hate the BCS system. Too much politics involved. However, I don't see anybody but LSU beating Alabama so if they had a playoff system I really think you would see LSU and Alabama in the championship. Their defenses are unreal.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I am no gambler but aren't Vegas lines based on getting equal number of betters on both sides of the line so they can cover and get action more than who is actually going to win/lose?Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
IMO, the slugfest was just as much a function of crappy QB play as it was great defense.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Yes. It's a whole wisdom of crowds thing, though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bison"FANatic"
I'd love to tell you all how good I think the Sagarin numbers are but on the off chance that they actually get around to legalizing sports betting outside of Nevada I don't want to forfeit my edge. :)
Yep...and I couldn't help but think that Brock could have helped both of those teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by Green-N-Gold
Kinda funny to think that a system like Sagarin has us ranked ahead of UCLA. I mean really...an average coach could have a winner there because of the great talent pool. But I bet the rest of the PAC-(whatever) has to be lovin' it.
Just for laughs, here's the top-26 from the version of Sagarin that the BCS uses:
1 LSU
2 Oklahoma State
3 Alabama
4 Arkansas
5 Boise State
6 Oklahoma
7 Oregon
8 Stanford
9 Kansas State
10 Auburn
11 Texas
12 South Carolina
13 Clemson
14 Texas A&M
15 Georgia
16 Baylor
17 Tulsa
18 Penn State
19 Missouri
20 Houston
21 Virginia Tech
22 Florida
23 Texas Tech
24 Southern California
25 Iowa State
26 North Dakota State
(garbage in, garbage out)
That's fricken' amazing. Thanks Hammer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Well...if you look at the USC vs. UM game and then the UM vs. NDSU game, and USC is at 24...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
We are also 32nd in the ratings Massey sends to the BCS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Ahhhh, let's get back to reality. Maybe top 100 in country?! Possibly.
Top 60 is realistic, I think. Think about how many teams are in the BCS conferences alone...top 60 is pretty impressive.