Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

EIU would be 73.1% to make the championship and NDSU 85.1%. Same matchup 62 times in 100.

By this measure Sagarin thinks that the bottom half of the draw is marginally easier than the top half. I'd speculate the primary driver of that would be avoiding SE Louisiana. Sagarin likes them more than EWU. 4 1/2 points on a neutral field.

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How about what is EIU's chance for the different records like you showed for NDSU?

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

How about what is EIU's chance for the different records like you showed for NDSU?

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15-1 33.5%
14-2 42.0%
13-2 8.4%
12-2 14.2%
11-2 2.0%

Sagarin likes their likely quarter final opponent Towson more than their likely semi-final competition EWU, or McNeese.

Isn't it like 13 straight years the OVC hasn't won a playoff game or something ridiculous? I'd laugh if EIU laid an egg in their first game again lol

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

15-1 33.5%
14-2 42.0%
13-2 8.4%
12-2 14.2%
11-2 2.0%

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Damn, that is serious computer love, right there. I am officially scared of these guys, bad conference or not.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Damn, that is serious computer love, right there. I am officially scared of these guys, bad conference or not.

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There's a bigger gap between EIU who's Sagarin's #2 and his #3 SE Louisiana (7.90) than there is between #23 Southern Utah and #24 Butler (6.99).

I thought that we learned long ago to not trust computers so much!

Attachment 3324

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Originally Posted by cbline

I thought that we learned long ago to not trust computers so much!

Attachment 3324

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HAL gets a bad wrap. It was user error. ;)

Briefly looking over numbers earlier... did I see NAU in the bottom 1/3rd of playoff teams based on Predictor?

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Originally Posted by gotts

Briefly looking over numbers earlier... did I see NAU in the bottom 1/3rd of playoff teams based on Predictor?

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19th of 24. Though there's a pretty substantial gap down to 20 (3.10 points).

Team	Round 1
#1 North Dakota St.	80.74
#2 Eastern Illinois	76.68
#4 SE Louisiana	68.78
#7 Towson	66.67
#8 Montana	64.50
#3 E. Washington	64.22
South Dakota State	64.18
#6 McNeese State	61.14
Sam Houston State	60.74
#5 Maine	60.14
New Hampshire	59.96
Coastal Carolina	59.44
Jacksonville State	57.82
Bethune-Cookman	57.37
SC State	57.34
Tennessee State	56.14
Fordham	55.77
Samford	54.88
Northern Arizona	54.47
Furman	51.37
Sacred Heart	50.44
Lafayette	50.13
Southern Utah	47.80
Butler	40.81

I saw it computes with bye weeks and home field advantage, but where do you enter Strength of the Herd!

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Originally Posted by BisonHorns

I saw it computes with bye weeks and home field advantage, but where do you enter Strength of the Herd!

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Can't put a number on that. Here's some inspiration (and perhaps a little dread):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwpTj_Z9v-c

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Originally Posted by EndZoneQB

Isn't it like 13 straight years the OVC hasn't won a playoff game or something ridiculous? I'd laugh if EIU laid an egg in their first game again lol

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Yet they get 1 more team in than the mvfc

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Damn, that is serious computer love, right there. I am officially scared of these guys, bad conference or not.

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Are they getting so much love from the computers because they continue to run up the score against poor competition? I do realize they beat some good teams, but it looks like Garoppolo plays into the 4th quarter in many of these games even when they are up by 30+ points.

And they keep passing the ball when they are up by that much, whereas most teams go into clock killing mode.

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Originally Posted by bisonboone11

Are they getting so much love from the computers because they continue to run up the score against poor competition? I do realize they beat some good teams, but it looks like Garoppolo plays into the 4th quarter in many of these games even when they are up by 30+ points.

And they keep passing the ball when they are up by that much, whereas most teams go into clock killing mode.

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I'm going to use this opportunity to make a tangential point. It's a farce that the NCAA doesn't let the computers in the FCS or FBS to use margin of victory. 2/3 of the BCS is human polls and the last three weeks of the year every year there's always talk about how so-and-so has to pound this-and-that in order to impress the voters. It's ridiculous to think that teams are going to run up the scores more if we let the computers make better estimates. They're already doing it nakedly in order to influence voters.

More to your point. We ran series of no-huddle a couple of different times against weaker opponents and no one seemed to think we were doing it to run up the score. Having seen zero minutes of EIU football (maybe some others here have), I don't know what EIU did or when and I'm not in a position to make judgements about their motivations for whatever it was that may or may not have happened.

Finally, their average margin was within a couple of tenths of a point of NDSU's. Which isn't to say they couldn't have just stomped a couple of teams and won some other games closer. I just don't have the details or the sequence of events, and even if I did I don't think I could reliably determine their motivation.

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Originally Posted by bisonboone11

Are they getting so much love from the computers because they continue to run up the score against poor competition? I do realize they beat some good teams, but it looks like Garoppolo plays into the 4th quarter in many of these games even when they are up by 30+ points.

And they keep passing the ball when they are up by that much, whereas most teams go into clock killing mode.

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I had a similar question a week or so ago when looking at Brock vs. Garoppolo for the Walter Payton award. Honestly, I was surprised by the lack of TD passes in the 4th quarter he has thrown. It's a lot less than you would think.

Positive to that - we know Brock will deliver with everything on the line. I don't think anyone knows what Jimmy and EIU will do if they are down 4 late in the 4th simply because they haven't had that many opportunities to show it.

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Originally Posted by Mayville Bison

I don't think anyone knows what Jimmy and EIU will do if they are down 4 late in the 4th simply because they haven't had that many opportunities to show it.

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Well, we might get a chance to see what he will do down by 21 in the 4th quarter in Texas...

I'm more excited and scared about a potential EIU battle in the NC than I ever was about SHSU. I hope it runs out this way so I can see what NDSU's defense can do!

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Originally Posted by NDSUBowler

I'm more excited and scared about a potential EIU battle in the NC than I ever was about SHSU. I hope it runs out this way so I can see what NDSU's defense can do!

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Best part will be seeing Jimmy sitting on his ass as the NDSU offense grinds out one 8 min drive after another.....

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Originally Posted by bisonboone11

Are they getting so much love from the computers because they continue to run up the score against poor competition? I do realize they beat some good teams, but it looks like Garoppolo plays into the 4th quarter in many of these games even when they are up by 30+ points.

And they keep passing the ball when they are up by that much, whereas most teams go into clock killing mode.

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It looks like I was mistaken. Out of curiosity, I went through and checked how many points they have scored and allowed in 4th quarters this season. Right now, they are at 90-85. For some perspective, NDSU is 68-6 in the 4th quarter this season. It looks like they don't run up the score at all in the 4th quarters.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

Best part will be seeing Jimmy sitting on his ass as the NDSU offense grinds out one 8 min drive after another.....

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I don't think their D is good enough to hold our run game down for 8 minutes at a time

but who knows, they put up scoring number last year similar to this year and SDSU blew them out

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Originally Posted by tjbison

I don't think their D is good enough to hold our run game down for 8 minutes at a time

but who knows, they put up scoring number last year similar to this year and SDSU blew them out

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I wonder what they did to their defense this year compared to last? They appear to be much improved. I skimmed through their roster and I noticed a few Juco d-lineman.

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Originally Posted by bisonboone11

For some perspective, NDSU is 68-6 in the 4th quarter this season.

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:eeek::eeek::eeek::eeek::eeek::eeek::eeek::eeek::e eek::eeek::eeek::eeek:


That is definitely some perspective.

*curse you Missouri State and your 6 4th quarter points

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Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

I wonder what they did to their defense this year compared to last? They appear to be much improved. I skimmed through their roster and I noticed a few Juco d-lineman.

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if you look at their schedule the NIU game is only the one that stands out, but NIU is a throw it out team too.

SDSU pounded the rock and took over in the second half cause they beat them up. that game was close in the first half then Zenner took over and their Dline

I think the same happens this year and the committee gets egg on their face for the OVC getting in that many and a #2

I could be totally wrong though

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Originally Posted by tjbison

if you look at their schedule the NIU game is only the one that stands out, but NIU is a throw it out team too.

SDSU pounded the rock and took over in the second half cause they beat them up. that game was close in the first half then Zenner took over and their Dline

I think the same happens this year and the committee gets egg on their face for the OVC getting in that many and a #2

I could be totally wrong though

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I really, really think SDSU is the dark horse the more I look at that other bracket. If Sumner can just make a few big throws, and the O line does their job, they could play their way to Frisco. I like their chances against the Big Fluffy and the Ohio Valley.

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

I really, really think SDSU is the dark horse the more I look at that other bracket. If Sumner can just make a few big throws, and the O line does their job, they could play their way to Frisco. I like their chances against the Big Fluffy and the Ohio Valley.

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I tend to agree. Per Sagarin, they're favored by 6 this weekend.

Round 2: 6 1/2 point dog to NAU making them and UNH the best upset prospects of the round.

Quarters: 1/2 point dog to McNeese. Should McNeese be upset SDSU would be favored against any other opponent.

Semis: Big dog to EIU 16 pts and 6 points to Towson favored in any other matchup.

SDSU chances of making it to Frisco are 5 times better than anyone else playing this weekend.

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Originally Posted by tjbison

if you look at their schedule the NIU game is only the one that stands out, but NIU is a throw it out team too.

SDSU pounded the rock and took over in the second half cause they beat them up. that game was close in the first half then Zenner took over and their Dline

I think the same happens this year and the committee gets egg on their face for the OVC getting in that many and a #2

I could be totally wrong though

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You might be right about the OVC, but I would say that 3 TD win at San Diego St. is a pretty nice result as well as the close one at NIU

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

I really, really think SDSU is the dark horse the more I look at that other bracket. If Sumner can just make a few big throws, and the O line does their job, they could play their way to Frisco. I like their chances against the Big Fluffy and the Ohio Valley.

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I think it depends on their Defense, if the team that blew out SELA shows up they have a legit shot to go deep, but if they lay an egg in the defensive backfield EIU and or EWU will shred them, unless they get pressure

offensively I think they are ok, if Zenner gets rolling there will be open easy throws for Sumner

I for one will be watching that game on Saturday in Flagstaff

NDSU sagar in ranking was brought up on reusse show last week, they said it doesn't matter when they don't play a solid team outside of Kansas state

I wonder if they mean really tough teams like Minnesota and Iowa. Sagarin's strength of schedule has NDSU only 4 spots behind Louisville.

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Originally Posted by dragonsfan

NDSU sagar in ranking was brought up on reusse show last week, they said it doesn't matter when they don't play a solid team outside of Kansas state

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Originally Posted by dragonsfan

NDSU sagar in ranking was brought up on reusse show last week, they said it doesn't matter when they don't play a solid team outside of Kansas state

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That's like trying to tell Harold Reynolds that Mike Trout should win the MVP because his WAR is better than Miguel Cabrera's.

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Originally Posted by dragonsfan

NDSU sagar in ranking was brought up on reusse show last week, they said it doesn't matter when they don't play a solid team outside of Kansas state

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Funny part of that argument is:

Why then does BCS use Sargarin in its formula even if not the best one?

Also, who has Northern Illinois played? They are ranked 18 by AP. Then you point out NDSU plays in a higher ranked conference.

That shuts them up fast.

Good points, I'm just saying being fcs will always keep ndsu down in terms of respect nationwide and regionally, 24 playoff teams are a who's who of nobodys

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Originally Posted by dragonsfan

Good points, I'm just saying being fcs will always keep ndsu down in terms of respect nationwide and regionally, 24 playoff teams are a who's who of nobodys

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Sam, if you didn't already give away your identity with the Reusse comment (many on here don't know who that is), you sure did with this one.

Your point is valid, however, the MAC is also a who's who of nobodies, as is the Sunbest, conf. USA, etc. I think the only conference I'd be remotely interested in is MWC and NDSU has a facility problem for that. As it is, I think it makes sense to see how the D1 shake up goes down, and have plans for FargoDome expansion when the opportunity strikes.

I dont know who ypur talkin about, but your tellin me people don't know reusse? Its on 1500am startribune, I mean ndsu is 50% minnesota and yes when you travel and bring up a convo, college football is bcs bcs bcs

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Originally Posted by dragonsfan

I dont know who ypur talkin about, but your tellin me people don't know reusse? Its on 1500am startribune, I mean ndsu is 50% minnesota and yes when you travel and bring up a convo, college football is bcs bcs bcs

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So, Sam, you have a plan to get NDSU into an auto-bid conference? If so, I'd sure like to hear it. Personally, I think the deck is so fundamentally stacked against the NDSU's and Boise's of the world, that I don't see a good "out."

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

So, Sam, you have a plan to get NDSU into an auto-bid conference? If so, I'd sure like to hear it. Personally, I think the deck is so fundamentally stacked against the NDSU's and Boise's of the world, that I don't see a good "out."

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Did you see the AD and President at JMU pushed out their 15 year National Title winning coach so that they can cash in on a cynical, program destroying move to C-USA.

Until they fix the I-A business model there's no sense moving up.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Until they fix the I-A business model there's no sense moving up.

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I think the model works for the auto bid conferences.....

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

I think the model works for the auto bid conferences.....

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We're not getting into an auto-bid conference.

Neither is JMU, or Old Dominion, or App St. or Georgia Southern. Their 'leaders' are lining their pockets while their programs rot on the vine.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Did you see the AD and President at JMU pushed out their 15 year National Title winning coach so that they can cash in on a cynical, program destroying move to C-USA.

Until they fix the I-A business model there's no sense moving up.

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I agree completely with the bold. Its sad that there is more money to be made with a "program destroying" move like that, as you put. I just hope that NDSU's leadership is smart enough to see that and wait for the right time, if it ever comes.

I know about all the threads that start every year about this, but how fun would it be if the the FBS were split into 8 mega-conferences, each with an auto-bid to a 12-team play-off (the other 4 selected based on merit), similar to the FCS one now with 4 first-round byes. If a move up to a conference that got a bid into this imaginary play-off were ever an opportunity on the horizon, I would absolutetly get on board with that. If not, I say we stay where we are.