Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Maybe a little something like this?
Attachment 6149
And this?
Attachment 6150
Printable View
Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Maybe a little something like this?
Attachment 6149
And this?
Attachment 6150
Man, those bottom graphs will really change after the NDSU/SDSU game. NDSU and SDSU are fairly evenly split between two to three possible records. That uncertainty is because the NDSU/SDSU is a dead heat* according to the model. Once that game is done, both xDSU graphs will have a single, dominate prediction.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
*straight Sag model is SDSU by 1.75, adapted to include bye week has NDSU by a bit less than a point
Yeah, I don't know if they'll get quite as peaked as Jax St or SHSU, but that sure looks like the most important game of the year right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
UNI and Cal Poly this week is the only game remaining for the team I compiled that's closer.
Oh...me likey! Thank you. So we'll make the playoffs is my belief, even a 7-4 Bison team makes it. What this paints right now is that we might be on the road for the semi's and perhaps even quarterfinals. That will be interesting. Jax State sounds like, looks like the real deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Either that or the class of a weak conference.Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Weak conference or not, you don't take Auburn to OT without being a legit contender.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Tatesbitch, I'm curious as to why you seem confident that 7-4 will get NDSU in? Just based on reputation or what? Remember we don't have a FBS win this year. I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious of your thinking. Hopefully it doesn't come to that anyway.
Also, how is your wife?
The day the NCAA stops caring about regionalization is the day a 7-4 NDSU team that can sell ~19000 tickets to a first round matchup doesn't get in the playoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
Wait, are you implying the selection process isn't completely objective? I'm shocked <purple> :)Quote:
Originally Posted by gotts
I bet you think the NCAA doesn't look out for the best interest of their student athletes either!Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
Gully. One word. Money.
That's it.
Gotts nailed it. We will get every chance to make the playoffs. I also don't think we will be 7-4. 9-2 is where I'm at as of now.
Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:
10-1 10.3% -5.4% from last week
9-2.. 30.1% -5.3%
8-3.. 33.7% +2.9%
7-4.. 19.0% +5.1%
6-5.... 5.8% +2.2%
5-6.... 1.0% +0.5%
4-7.... 0.1%
3-8.... 0.003%
2-9.... 0.00002%
Opp..... Win%.. Line
@SDSU. 48.0% -0.5. -4.6%.. -1.5 change from last week
v.UNI.... 72.7% 8.0. -5.0%.. -2.5
v.USD... 88.2% 16.0. -6.4%.. -6.0
@Ind St. 86.2% 14.5 +2.3%. +1.0
@S Ill.... 73.7%. 8.5. -2.7%.. -1.0
v.W Ill... 88.8% 16.5. -1.0%. -0.5
@YSU.... 60.0%. 3.5 -15.2%. -5.5
v.Mo St.. 99.1% 32.5 +3.3% +9.0
Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--. @SDSU.. 48.0% -0.5
--. @YSU.... 60.0%. 3.5
+1 v.UNI.... 72.7%. 8.0
-1. @S Ill... 73.7%.. 8.5
--. @Ind St. 86.2% 14.5
+1 v.USD... 88.2% 16.0
-1. v.W Ill... 88.8% 16.5
--. v.Mo St.. 99.1% 32.5
First game since K State that we haven't been favored?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I'd say so. Probably the first FCS opponent that Sagarin has favored over NDSU since SHSU in the 2011 title game?Quote:
Originally Posted by Strategery
NDSU was a small favorite v. SHSU in 2011. 4 points on a neutral field.Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
do they realize that the game in Brookings might be more of a neutral field...Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
You mean natural field? With all the grazing and such?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bison_Pyro
Big (not really all that)Fluffy slips to 3rd among FCS conferences. And SDSU edges us out of the #1 spot.
Sagarin's 2015 Week 4 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
70 North Dakota State 68.36
126 Montana 55.86 +9.85 -3.00 -12.85
167 Weber State 46.76 +24.25 +27.00 +2.75
186 North Dakota 42.76 +28.25 +25.00 -3.25
67 South Dakota State 69.00 -3.29
93 Northern Iowa 62.87 +8.14
133 South Dakota 54.94 +16.07
151 Indiana State 50.97 +14.74
120 Southern Illinois 57.17 +8.54
136 Western Illinois 54.53 +16.48
98 Youngstown State 62.29 +3.42
202 Missouri State 38.58 +32.43
88 Illinois State 64.10
Total Diff: -13.35
Home Field 2.65
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team
1 67 69.00 South Dakota State
2 70 68.36 North Dakota State
3 75 67.31 Jacksonville State
4 87 64.11 Chattanooga
5 88 64.10 Illinois State
6 93 62.87 Northern Iowa
7 97 62.44 Coastal Carolina
8 98 62.29 Youngstown State
9 99 62.08 Eastern Washington
10 109 60.81 James Madison
11 112 60.28 Sam Houston State
12 116 58.41 William & Mary
13 117 58.21 Villanova
14 118 57.88 Samford
15 120 57.17 Southern Illinois
16 121 56.79 Montana State
17 123 56.44 Liberty
18 124 56.25 Stony Brook
19 126 55.86 Montana
20 128 55.76 Harvard
21 129 55.72 Portland State
22 132 55.01 Cal Poly-SLO
23 133 54.94 South Dakota
24 134 54.93 McNeese State
25 136 54.53 Western Illinois
Code:
Rank Conference CntMean NDSU
1 BIG 12 80.63 10
2 SEC 79.45 14
3 ACC 77.45 14
4 I-A INDEPENDENTS 76.55 3
5 PAC-12 76.15 10
6 BIG TEN 76.12 11
7 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 65.20 5
8 MWC 61.64 3
9 MAC 59.81 4
10 MISSOURI VALLEY 59.02 2
11 CONFERENCE USA 58.71 4
12 SUN BELT 57.26 1
13 COLONIAL 48.48 1
14 BIG SKY 48.29 1
15 SOUTHERN 47.51 1
16 OHIO VALLEY 44.61 1
17 SOUTHLAND 43.09 1
18 BIG SOUTH 41.58 1
19 IVY LEAGUE 39.98 1
20 NORTHEAST 36.69 1
21 PATRIOT 34.47 1
22 MID-EASTERN 32.24 1
23 SWAC 27.97 1
24 PIONEER 22.80 1
I think SDSU deserves the #1 at this point. They look really solid this year. That game is huge!
PfffftQuote:
Originally Posted by No_Skill
Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
My guess why SDSU moved ahead of us is first SDSU dominated their opponent this week. Outside of that it wasn't so much our game against UND, but Montana being exactly one play from being 0-3. They better hope from some help from the nasty defenses that make up their conference.
Our rating has little to do with Montana's record, except indirectly. It is more about how we and the teams we have played have performed against the previous week's rating.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
We have underperformed (per Sagarin ratings) in at least two of our games so far. Maybe all three. SDSU has outperformed the ratings.
Sent from my A0001 using Tapatalk
Attachment 6176Attachment 6177
..........
Looks pretty dull this week. Two huge showdowns in the MVFC next week.
Some of those scores on your first chart are just ridiculous. SHSU (0-2) is averaging giving up 54 ppg. EWU (1-2) 50 ppg. Even Chatty, UNI and Ill St are right around 30 ppg. Do schools even recruit defensive players any more ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
This makes it sound like if Sagarin predicts they will win 7-0 and they win 14-0 they are performing 200% better than expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
/math
Underperformed is a right word, anything less than 60 points against UND indicates our offense having a rough dayQuote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Really? Are you f'ing serious? Wow. Bunny love sure has gone viral at Bisonville.Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Skill
It is all warm and fuzzy here. I will have my lucky rabbits foot in my pocket as always. Not because I am a bunny fan but because I do not want to carry the entire dead rabbit around. Kill the Rabbits Kill the Rabbits. please do not think I am hostile and abusive. lolQuote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
Love?...no. Have you seen them play this year? Right now, I think they are playing better ball than us. I'm still not sold on our D or our running game. This game will show our true colors.Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
Yes, I have seen the bunnies hop about and play. Kansas, no so much an offensive juggernaut scored all sorts of points on the vaunted bunny D so not too worried. Will they give the Bison a game........of course, we are their rival and super bowl game. I have one word for the bunnies..........over-rated.Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Skill
Superbowl game, really? It's a rivalry game and that's it. SDSU is beyond beating NDSU in the regular to have a successful season. The Jacks are looking for playoff wins and advancing in the playoffs. Don't play like this game is due or die for the Jacks season. We all know you dislike (more than hate) SDSU because you live in SoDak and complain constantly about it (remember that one time when that one person in Sioux Falls said something bad about NDSU? boo hoo) c'mon. (not hating on NDSU, just tired of SDbison's crap.) It will be a helluva game October 3rd. I'm looking forward to it. We shall see who is overrated (if anyone is) than. (Bring on the neg reps and comments because of this post)Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
It works on the scoring margin so winning by 14 instead of 7 would exceed expectations by 7 points, but the trick is the standard deviation of scoring margins around the average is roughly 14 points so outperforming in a single game by 7 compared to expectations is only 19% better (half a standard deviation in one direction) than previously anticipated.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrSnuffleupagus
OK Mr hypersensitive. Yep, usually SDSU grads don't give a crap about their sports teams, but you are proof that once Jackass fans got that one win against FBS powerhouse Kansas everything changed and it's time to get cocky. LOL Bunny turds.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanDakotaState
Lmao so sdsu is beyond beating the Bison to have success. Wonder if going 0-6 the last four years has anything to do with how they measure success now?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanDakotaState
Couple days really changes your opinion, huh?Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
So how does this show I changed my opinion. I am concerned about NDSU's consistency on offense and that it could cost them the game against SDSU. LOL if you think I like the Bunnies, but some Bisonville posters sure do love to make them out to be the best FCS team even before conference play begins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Could it be that maybe, just maybe, they closed the book after both of the last games were in hand?Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
I was at that SDSU game at Kansas. They might be worse than Wyoming. KU put themselves in a hole but Cozart was digging them out before that last drive. I have faith in CJ that he can handle Weineke to a certain extent but without ZZ we don't need so many in the box to cover him up.
They have yet to be tested. I think they have a lot of confidence coming into this game and won't have any of it taken away by Robert Morris but if we play our game, I think we'll be OK.
Hope you are right that NDSU justs stops running plays that could make big gains when they have a lead. And I hope Kansas is as bad as usual. Regardless, SDSU is gaining confidence and I hope this Bison team is ready for conference play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bison 4 Life
Getting called Mr. hypersensitive by you is pretty ironic, don't you think? What makes you so cocky about the upcoming SDSU game? Is it the handling of Weber State and UND? Or is it the 3 point road loss at Montana? There is just a lot of hype going into this Marker Game because of the result of last years playoff loss at the Fargo Dome. I'm expecting the same type of result but hopefully with the Jacks not pissing the game down their leg this time.Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
I would say instead of working harder, they got very vanilla. Better that than to give a bunch of tape to a future opponent. Kansas is dreadful. I mean, almost every team but a couple in the MVFC could have beaten them.Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison