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Jeff Sagarin lives in Indiana so he applies is model to HS football and basketball. The rating scores he had for my game last week were 58 and 17. Home team won 48-17 but could have scored more if they hadn't put in their backups midway through the third quarter.
So I'm guessing there's an active underground book-making enterprise in Indiana high school athletics.Quote:
Originally Posted by IndyBison
I hope not. But you never know.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Sometimes you catch texas HS games on online books. I wouldn't doubt a local book having Indiana HS's.
Really regret signing up for one of those books online. They call me now.. And ive never bet...
With what's happened with the online poker, I'd be getting my money out if you've got any just sitting in there.
I'm going to say this again. A team DOES NOT need 7 DI wins to make the playoffs.
That is true. But a team with less than 7 DI wins has never gotten an at large bid. Ever. Thus far its 7 DI wins or an AQ.Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
With the expanded playoff system this year, chances are a team with fewer wins (from a power conf of course) will make itQuote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
Till that happens for another team I would strive for 7...Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
I know it's not a set rule, but FCS teams should need to have 7 D1 wins in order to get a AL selection. If we start letting games between 6-5 teams, it will look like a bowl game. :smh: That's something I want nothing a part of.Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
If a conference winner is 6-5 and receives and auto-bid, then that is just how it played out that season.
It didn't happen last year despite the committee facing a 6-win Montana. That says a lot about the integrity of the selection committee and is a little reassuring that they're willing to adhere to the 7-win guideline.Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
Hopefully the committee sticks to this precedent.Quote:
Originally Posted by DjKyRo
????? Am i missing something? The playoffs were expanded last year, they are not this year... The 2011 playoff field is 20 teams, just like the 2010 playoff field was...?Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
Other than missing your left testicle, you are not missing a thing. YES, You are correct sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by Twentysix
That is not as reassuring as it should be. I wonder where my left testicle is off to?Quote:
Originally Posted by CarringtonBison
Sagarin is now well-connected and unbiased, so it no longer uses weighted info. I don't know if it was this week's events or the switch from bayesian to unbiased, but there were some real movements from week 6 to week 7. The Gophers continue their free fall and are now considered a mid-pack MVFC squad as well as being 24 spots below the nearest BCS team(Indiana). Lafayette moved up a bunch of spots thanks to their win over Yale. SIU's back to back losses dropped them 20 spots, while ISUb moved up 28 spots probably because of the switch away from bayesian. UNI and NDSU are now virtually tied for the top spot in FCS, with GSU & Furman nipping at our heels at 73 & 74(Air Force is between us at 72).
On the conference front, this week saw a tightening of the race. The SoCon dropped over a point, while the MVFC gained most of one. It's now SoCon, CAA, MVFC, BSC. (I still don't count GW as anything more than a statistical anomaly.)
Week 7
Week 6Code:rate predict actual diff
70 Northern Iowa 68.22 + 2.97
71 North Dakota State 68.11
120 Illinois State 57.00 +14.19 +10.00 -4.19
131 Indiana State 55.29 + 9.74
142 Minnesota 53.13 +11.90 +13.00 +2.10
135 Youngstown State 54.91 +16.28
165 Southern Illinois 48.34 +16.69 + 6.00 -10.69
171 South Dakota State 46.04 +18.99
181 Lafayette 43.70 +27.49 +36.00 +8.51
182 Western Illinois 43.46 +21.57
184 Missouri State 43.13 +28.06 +30.00 +1.94
240 Saint Francis-Pa 20.58 +50.61 +53.00 +2.39
Code:rate predict actual diff
75 Northern Iowa 67.00 + 1.44
78 Wofford 66.35
82 North Dakota State 65.36
130 Minnesota 55.42 + 6.86 +13.00 +6.14
145 Southern Illinois 52.56 + 9.72 + 6.00 -3.72
148 Illinois State 52.36 +16.08 +10.00 -6.08
152 Youngstown State 52.10 +16.34
159 Indiana State 50.77 +11.51
169 South Dakota State 48.36 +13.92
177 Western Illinois 46.38 +15.90
183 Missouri State 44.66 +23.78
194 Lafayette 41.68 +26.76 +36.00 +9.24
242 Saint Francis-Pa 22.33 +46.11 +53.00 +6.89
Conference
Code:Week 7
1. GWC 55.49
2. SoCn 54.94
3. CAA 54.12
4. MVFC 53.31
5. BSC 53.24
Week 6
1. SoCn 56.07
2. GWC 55.90
3. CAA 54.71
4. BSC 54.39
5. MVFC 52.44
GWC is the #1 ranked conference :rofl:
Didn't Ill St. handly beat their "#1 team" in USD?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strommer10
Play lower division teams=inflate ratings.Quote:
In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY
games between the 246 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE
STRENGTH computations.
NDSU's SOS was better with the Kansas win and Montana also did not have an exclusively DI schedule which is another one of the guildelines. If NDSU would have lost at Kansas, there would have been a 6 DI win team most likely hosting a first round playoff game. I'd much rather have a 6 DI win SoCon, CAA, MVFC, or even Big Sky team than a 7 DI win Pioneer team.Quote:
Originally Posted by DjKyRo
Just looked and the numbers appear to have shifted... I see Wofford (48) and GSU (46) ahead of NDSU (63) and UNI (66).Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Also the conference rankings appear to have shifted as well.
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 BIG 12 (A) = 82.78 82.75 ( 1) 10 82.81 ( 1)
2 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 80.48 80.94 ( 2) 12 80.42 ( 2)
3 BIG TEN (A) = 75.43 74.76 ( 3) 12 75.02 ( 3)
4 PAC-12 (A) = 74.47 74.60 ( 4) 12 74.51 ( 4)
5 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 73.35 73.39 ( 5) 12 73.33 ( 5)
6 BIG EAST (A) = 72.05 72.34 ( 6) 8 72.24 ( 6)
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 69.00 69.00 ( 7) 4 69.00 ( 7)
8 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 65.18 65.90 ( 8) 8 65.00 ( 8)
9 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 63.98 63.25 ( 9) 12 63.82 ( 9)
10 WESTERN ATHLETIC (A) = 62.80 62.77 ( 10) 8 62.73 ( 10)
11 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 61.45 61.71 ( 11) 13 61.63 ( 11)
12 SOUTHERN (AA)= 58.88 58.75 ( 12) 9 58.96 ( 12)
13 SUN BELT (A) = 57.31 57.33 ( 13) 9 57.40 ( 13)
14 COLONIAL (AA)= 57.06 56.60 ( 14) 11 56.72 ( 14)
15 GREAT WEST (AA)= 54.86 55.04 ( 15) 5 55.04 ( 15)
16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 54.54 54.98 ( 16) 9 54.86 ( 16)
17 BIG SKY (AA)= 52.19 50.91 ( 17) 9 51.53 ( 17)
18 PATRIOT LEAGUE (AA)= 47.13 47.39 ( 18) 7 47.38 ( 18)
19 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 46.01 45.41 ( 20) 9 45.50 ( 20)
20 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 45.37 45.91 ( 19) 8 45.54 ( 19)
21 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 44.00 43.76 ( 21) 4 43.83 ( 21)
22 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 43.57 43.65 ( 22) 8 43.63 ( 22)
23 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 39.46 39.92 ( 23) 7 39.69 ( 23)
24 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 39.16 38.11 ( 25) 11 38.72 ( 24)
25 NORTHEAST (AA)= 38.70 38.19 ( 24) 9 38.32 ( 25)
26 SOUTHWESTERN (AA)= 35.32 35.38 ( 26) 10 35.39 ( 26)
27 PIONEER (AA)= 34.61 32.94 ( 27) 10 34.00 ( 27)
28 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -90.00 -90.00 ( 28) 1 -90.00 ( 28)
Liberty might have gotten in, they were 8-3(all DI) with a win vs Ball St.
Yup, and they couldn't beat a 6-5 CAA team last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
There's a reason why it says "may" instead of "shall" when mentioning 7 DI wins for at-large selection. It should read "Not having 7 DI wins if you're not from one of the top 4 conferences shall remove you from the at-large selection process".
I always use the predictor column rather than the rating column. The predictor number is the core of Sagarin. The elo chess number is forced onto him by the BCS(it's pure wins/losses and doesn't take into account margin of victory). The rating column is a synthesis of the two.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
From the explanation on his webpage:
For the conference standings, I recalculate the central mean column using the predictor numbers. Also, the predicted margin of victory in my top charts already includes the home advantage(currently 3.08). Bisonaudit gives an extra 3.08 to teams coming off a bye week, but I'm too lazy to do that.Quote:
In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
Ill just let you post numbers, while I nod and smile.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
:eeek: Well then. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
11-0 31.6%
10-1 44.5%
9-2 20.1%
8-3 3.5%
7-4 0.3%
6-5 0.0%
NDSU 68.11; Wabbits 46.04 plus 3 SDSU so Bizon by 19.07
Go Bizon!
Sunday morning comes again and so do this week's Sagarin results. As always, I use the predictor column(furthest right) for everything and recalculate the conference standings using central mean.
In this episode, NDSU finally moves past UNI for top spot in the conference, but both teams get passed up by Wofford and Georgia Southern. Don't ask me how Wofford loses, yet takes the top spot; I don't have an answer. Illinois State gets a big boost from their win over Indiana State, but it doesn't change their standing within the conference. Missouri State moved up several spots due to the clustering in the bottom third of the MVFC. It also is clear that three of our four toughest games are yet to be played(according to the numbers).
In conference ratings, the SoCon solidifies its spot at the top of the AQ pack, but the Valley is making a charge and has taken second place over the CAA and Big Sky.
Week 8
Week 7Code:rate predict actual diff
61 Wofford 70.32
66 Georgia Southern 69.99
67 North Dakota State 69.90
75 Northern Iowa 68.45 + 4.59
106 Illinois State 60.90 +12.14 +10.00 -2.14
122 Indiana State 58.88 + 7.88
135 Youngstown State 57.24 +15.80
141 Minnesota 56.27 +10.49 +13.00 +2.51
157 Southern Illinois 52.31 +14.45 + 6.00 -8.45
174 Missouri State 49.02 +24.02 +30.00 +5.98
176 South Dakota State 48.76 +18.00 +24.00 +6.00
181 Lafayette 47.51 +25.53 +36.00 +10.47
193 Western Illinois 45.55 +21.21
237 Saint Francis-Pa 28.06 +44.98 +53.00 +8.02
ConferencesCode:rate predict actual diff
70 Northern Iowa 68.22 + 2.97
71 North Dakota State 68.11
120 Illinois State 57.00 +14.19 +10.00 -4.19
131 Indiana State 55.29 + 9.74
142 Minnesota 53.13 +11.90 +13.00 +2.10
135 Youngstown State 54.91 +16.28
165 Southern Illinois 48.34 +16.69 + 6.00 -10.69
171 South Dakota State 46.04 +18.99
181 Lafayette 43.70 +27.49 +36.00 +8.51
182 Western Illinois 43.46 +21.57
184 Missouri State 43.13 +28.06 +30.00 +1.94
240 Saint Francis-Pa 20.58 +50.61 +53.00 +2.39
Code:Week 8
1. SoCn 59.94
2. GWC 59.25
3. MVFC 56.42
4. CAA 55.28
5. BSC 54.67
Week 7
1. GWC 55.49
2. SoCn 54.94
3. CAA 54.12
4. MVFC 53.31
5. BSC 53.24
11-0 34.1%
10-1 44.8%
9-2 18.5%
8-3 2.5%
7-4 0.1%
SoCon conference increased rating 5 full points and Clemson is still undefeated so I'm thinking that SOS is floating the Wofford boat this week.
A 7 win Pioneer will never make the playoffs. A 6 win SoCon, CAA, MVFC, Big Sky is better than a 10 or even 11 win Pioneer, and IMO the selection committee already knows that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonguy
NDSU 69.9 UNI 68.45 plus 3 for us as the home team so Bizon by 4.45. I'll take it!
I will bet a free meal at PL's "bar and 'grill'" the margin ain't that!! What say u?!Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
I know that UNI coaches will have watched the SDSU and Missouri State games, and saw the scores and near scores on the pass playsQuote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
to the right side of the field to open receivers. NDSU MUST correct that as 1 TD or even a FG could be make a huge difference.
Lets Go Bison. Lets Go Bison..
Yeah I tend to agree. However, there is no better predictor than Sagarin that I know of. The way I look at it we have lost three in a row so we are due for a win.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
I'm guessing you like the FBS too? I bet you guys wish this was played on paper. We will get you by 15 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Get your ass to Fargo. Offering a line like that you'd run every book maker out of town overnight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalo Bill
Good morning everyone. The MVFC now has the top-2 FCS spots in the Sagarin predictor rankings with NDSU at number 59 overall and UNI at 68. The rest of the top-5 are Georgia Southern at 73, Wofford at 76, and SHSU at 86. Montana State is just outside the top-5 at number 87.
Within our schedule, Youngstown State continues its rise to become one of the tougher games on our schedule. Minnesota's surprising win over Iowa has helped them climb from a bottom-third MVFC team to midpack.
Conference-wise, not a lot of movement. The Big Sky and CAA swapped spots on the bottom of the top-5, and the gap between the MVFC and SoCon is continuing to shrink.
Week 9
Code:rate predict actual diff
59 North Dakota State 71.24
68 Northern Iowa 69.42 + 4.46 + 8.00 +3.54
105 Illinois State 61.76 +12.12 +10.00 -2.12
114 Youngstown State 59.75 +14.13
115 Indiana State 59.40 + 9.20
117 Minnesota 58.85 + 9.75 +13.00 +3.25
154 Southern Illinois 52.58 +16.02 + 6.00 -10.02
165 South Dakota State 50.26 +18.34 +24.00 +5.66
175 Missouri State 47.66 +26.22 +30.00 +3.78
192 Western Illinois 43.97 +24.63
196 Lafayette 43.44 +30.44 +36.00 +5.56
233 Saint Francis-Pa 29.79 +44.09 +53.00 +8.91
Week 8
Code:rate predict actual diff
61 Wofford 70.32
66 Georgia Southern 69.99
67 North Dakota State 69.90
75 Northern Iowa 68.45 + 4.59
106 Illinois State 60.90 +12.14 +10.00 -2.14
122 Indiana State 58.88 + 7.88
135 Youngstown State 57.24 +15.80
141 Minnesota 56.27 +10.49 +13.00 +2.51
157 Southern Illinois 52.31 +14.45 + 6.00 -8.45
174 Missouri State 49.02 +24.02 +30.00 +5.98
176 South Dakota State 48.76 +18.00 +24.00 +6.00
181 Lafayette 47.51 +25.53 +36.00 +10.47
193 Western Illinois 45.55 +21.21
237 Saint Francis-Pa 28.06 +44.98 +53.00 +8.02
Conference
Code:Week 9
1. SoCn 58.73
2. GWC 58.25
3. MVFC 57.27
4. BSC 56.05
5. CAA 53.86
Week 8
1. SoCn 59.94
2. GWC 59.25
3. MVFC 56.42
4. CAA 55.28
5. BSC 54.67
I've never really understood Sagarin but I am going to now.
Check out a little book by Wayne Winston called Mathletics. He and Sagarin are colleges and there's a fair bit of discussion about his techniques in the book.Quote:
Originally Posted by A1pigskin
will do. thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit