2025 Sagarin Says

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Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan

100%; reason the vigs are usually higher and lines come out late. Some books also have limits on how much you can bet. (I'm low stakes so don't really ever come close.) Lakes is oui #1 expert......LOL (My favorite lakes betting story was walking into SDSU game in 2023 in Brookings and NDSU was like a +6 dog; I felt strongly very easy SDSU cover. He was all excited to bet NDSU as a dog. I made money; he did not.)

Sam Herder also had an expert on once who basically said the same you heard. Back when 5dimes was humming, they'd put out lines on Tuesday, and I made a good chunk of money hitting those early lines before they moved to reality.

As for tips, I look for Big Sky and MVFC teams playing lower FCS conference teams. Those Sagarins are always quite bit off in my experience often making the power conference team a pretty good bet paritucularly when at home and picked in upper half of their conference.

Sagarin gets way better after 4-5 weeks of play; then I move to teams who are improving/imploding.....also listen for key injuries. Lots of dogs to watch at that point for betting. Back in the glory days of the insiders, JJ was watching some no name team and said the QB went down with a brutal injury right at end of a game. Sagarin of course does not reflect and books missed it since media was next to nothing. I bet against them the next week for easy money.

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I don’t know what these computer models are doing to get to their pre-season numbers but I imagine that one component is some amount of mean regression which could conceivably result in those juicy early season lines.

Big jump in the predictor after the top 3.

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46        South Dakota State          AA        71.53        MISSOURI VALLEY
56        North Dakota State          AA        68.29        MISSOURI VALLEY
66        Montana State              AA        65.14        BIG SKY
94        South Dakota                AA        58.10        MISSOURI VALLEY
95        Montana                    AA        57.76        BIG SKY
107        UC Davis                    AA        55.15        BIG SKY
112        Incarnate Word              AA        53.48        SOUTHLAND
113        Idaho                      AA        53.26        BIG SKY
118        North Dakota                AA        51.59        MISSOURI VALLEY
121        Southern Illinois          AA        50.56        MISSOURI VALLEY
123        Mercer                      AA        50.22        SOUTHERN
124        Villanova                  AA        50.19        COASTAL
126        Delaware                    AA        50.16        MAC
128        Tennessee-Martin            AA        49.62        BIG SOUTH/OVC
129        Illinois State              AA        49.42        MISSOURI VALLEY
131        Sacramento State            AA        49.18        BIG SKY
133        Weber State                AA        49.12        BIG SKY
135        Chattanooga                AA        48.96        SOUTHERN
136        Stephen F. Austin          AA        48.95        SOUTHLAND
140        Northern Arizona            AA        48.01        BIG SKY
142        Central Arkansas            AA        47.97        WESTERN ATHLETIC
143        Harvard                    AA        47.80        IVY LEAGUE
144        Eastern Washington          AA        47.79        BIG SKY
145        Holy Cross                  AA        47.76        PATRIOT
146        Tarleton State              AA        47.59        WESTERN ATHLETIC

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Originally Posted by Hammerhead

Big jump in the predictor after the top 3.

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46        South Dakota State          AA        71.53        MISSOURI VALLEY
56        North Dakota State          AA        68.29        MISSOURI VALLEY
66        Montana State              AA        65.14        BIG SKY
94        South Dakota                AA        58.10        MISSOURI VALLEY
95        Montana                    AA        57.76        BIG SKY
107        UC Davis                    AA        55.15        BIG SKY
112        Incarnate Word              AA        53.48        SOUTHLAND
113        Idaho                      AA        53.26        BIG SKY
118        North Dakota                AA        51.59        MISSOURI VALLEY
121        Southern Illinois          AA        50.56        MISSOURI VALLEY
123        Mercer                      AA        50.22        SOUTHERN
124        Villanova                  AA        50.19        COASTAL
126        Delaware                    AA        50.16        MAC
128        Tennessee-Martin            AA        49.62        BIG SOUTH/OVC
129        Illinois State              AA        49.42        MISSOURI VALLEY
131        Sacramento State            AA        49.18        BIG SKY
133        Weber State                AA        49.12        BIG SKY
135        Chattanooga                AA        48.96        SOUTHERN
136        Stephen F. Austin          AA        48.95        SOUTHLAND
140        Northern Arizona            AA        48.01        BIG SKY
142        Central Arkansas            AA        47.97        WESTERN ATHLETIC
143        Harvard                    AA        47.80        IVY LEAGUE
144        Eastern Washington          AA        47.79        BIG SKY
145        Holy Cross                  AA        47.76        PATRIOT
146        Tarleton State              AA        47.59        WESTERN ATHLETIC

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Difference between 9 and 25 is exactly 4 points. This could be the year we have a semi final game include someone unexpected or not on anyone's radar to begin the season.

Nicholls looking pretty good so far.
10 - 3 over Incarnate Word in Q2

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Originally Posted by NI4NI

Nicholls looking pretty good so far.
10 - 3 over Incarnate Word in Q2

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All teams outside the Valley are fraudulent until proven otherwise.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

All teams outside the Valley are fraudulent until proven otherwise.

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ICW confirms your statement.

Top 25 FCS Ratings after week zero.

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46        South Dakota State          AA        75.29        MISSOURI VALLEY
57        North Dakota State          AA        72.05        MISSOURI VALLEY
66        Montana State                AA        68.91        BIG SKY
93        South Dakota                AA        61.9        MISSOURI VALLEY
95        Montana                      AA        61.55        BIG SKY
107        UC Davis                    AA        58.95        BIG SKY
112        Idaho                        AA        57.06        BIG SKY
117        North Dakota                AA        55.39        MISSOURI VALLEY
118        Tarleton State              AA        55.11        WESTERN ATHLETIC
121        Incarnate Word              AA        54.68        SOUTHLAND
122        Southern Illinois            AA        54.37        MISSOURI VALLEY
124        Mercer                      AA        54.03        SOUTHERN
125        Villanova                    AA        53.99        COASTAL
127        Delaware                    AA        53.96        CONF-USA
129        Tennessee-Martin            AA        53.43        BIG SOUTH/OVC
130        Illinois State              AA        53.23        MISSOURI VALLEY
132        Sacramento State            AA        52.99        BIG SKY
134        Weber State                  AA        52.93        BIG SKY
136        Chattanooga                  AA        52.77        SOUTHERN
137        Stephen F. Austin            AA        52.76        SOUTHLAND
141        Nicholls State              AA        52.13        SOUTHLAND
142        NC Central                  AA        51.95        MEAC
143        Northern Arizona            AA        51.83        BIG SKY
144        Central Arkansas            AA        51.79        WESTERN ATHLETIC
145        Harvard                      AA        51.62        IVY LEAGUE

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Originally Posted by NI4NI

Nicholls looking pretty good so far.
10 - 3 over Incarnate Word in Q2

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Just watched the highlights. Teh Word looks like they need to sharpen up a bit. Good win for Nicholls.

Anxiously waiting for new Sag results.

After watching Bison game I was comfortable that they would sail through the Valley like crap through a goose. Then after watching the other I29 teams it's clear we need to play our best ball week in week out to remain on top of the mountain.

Extremely impressed with how well these teams retooled and well they are working together.

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Originally Posted by NI4NI

Anxiously waiting for new Sag results.

After watching Bison game I was comfortable that they would sail through the Valley like crap through a goose. Then after watching the other I29 teams it's clear we need to play our best ball week in week out to remain on top of the mountain.

Extremely impressed with how well these teams retooled and well they are working together.

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Did we watch the same teams? Honestly the only team that worries me at this point happens to be the other North Dakota team. USD got absolutely destroyed, granted IA State could very well be a team competing for a semifinal or title spot at the FBS level but still they didn’t look impressive at all. And SDSU looked fine I guess. A lot of mistakes. Their offense doesn’t worry me at all though.