This man needs some rep for his sig line. Just sayin'.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strategery
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This man needs some rep for his sig line. Just sayin'.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strategery
green is their rating in the BCS component. I have no idea how they are that high, it boggles the mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Strategery
DIMIN_CURVE and PREDICTOR are two alternate methodologies of calculating a predictive value, which are averaged into RATING
Yeah... Even though the "PURE_ELO" rating doesn't take the score margins into account, you would think that it still considers the overall strength of schedule somehow. If you recall, when he first introduced this new rating metric, several of the FCS teams were coming in very high. He tweaked something to drop them out. I never heard if it was truly an error or if it was just a tweak in the formula to prevent teams playing lower level competition to be rated that high.Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
Assuming this is not an error, and NIU wins the final games on the schedule, they could throw a monkey wrench into everything.
In a round about way it was a personal attack on me as I attempted to start the campaign. Probably shouldnt have taken it that way and I was more upset at myself for even reading his post as I have that poster blocked. others said my point more poetically than I did, just baffled someone cant realize how much it would mean for a FCS team to actually be ranked on a bunch of different levels.Quote:
Originally Posted by MankatoBison
Someone posted on AGS going back a few more years and Marshall ended one season ('96?) at 21. So we've got to keep winning and hope that our season's opponents keep winning too in order to crack that nut.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Randy Moss and Chad Pennington in 96. Wow! Best FCS combo ever. The NFL couldn't stop them!Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Actually, Pennington was red-shirted that year in favor of Eric Kresser, an FBS transfer from Florida.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
The way to stop them would be to keep the QB scrambling and on his back. ;-)
FIFYQuote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
10 char
Interestingly, per Sagarin's Predictor score, only one team would be within two touchdowns of NDSU at the FargoDome right now. Eastern Illinois is closest and would still be an 8.5 point dog. Next is Southeast Louisiana at 14.3 points. Sure... it's an imperfect computer model, but it still predicts the correct winner approx 75-80% of the time for all Division I games.
http://nationalsportsrankings.com/in...n=com_oneonone says about the same thing when I do a 100 game scenario (just for the sake of conversation)Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
The model has margins of victory to work with, but I wonder if it actually ends up understating a team like NDSU and overstating a team like EIU?
Here is what I mean. EIU seems to keep trying to score quickly even when far ahead. This contributes to their margin of victory. NDSU seems to try to run the clock out when they get ahead. This keeps the margin of victory smaller than it could have been. Taken together, this would seem to understate NDSU's ability relative to EIU's.
In other words, the model doesn't know that NDSU goes into "run out the clock" mode.
Doesn this take make any sense to anyone or am I crazy?
Sagarin says Bison by 33?
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You're not crazy at all. You can build these things different ways. You could set it up to minimize the squares of the variances which would tend to reward blowouts more than some other alternatives, or minimize the absolute value of the variances which would reign that in, you could constrain the maximum margin that the model will accept, etc. We don't know exactly how Sagarin's model works so it's hard to say.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
This seems to make sense intuitively, but I don't know if it holds true. I can't speak for any of Sagarin's systems, but I have my own system based mainly on the ideas I picked up in this thread. One thing I do is limit the margin of victory. If I limit the cap at 45 points, the Bison are 1.4 points ahead of EIU, but if I limit it to 10, the margin is only 0.3 points. My system seems to work much better if the cap is bigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
Not sure what EIU's margins have been. I know they score a bunch. But we put the wood to a couple of teams too, 51 and 46 (and another 46 on Ferris).Quote:
Originally Posted by RadioBison
Speaking of Ferris State, since they are not included in the ranking system how do they factor in to our total??
I'm fairly certain they don't factor in at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
That's what I thought too. So for this ranking only, would we have been better off by playing a good D1 team or a crappy D1 team or does it just depend on winning by more than the expected outcome?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
c. .Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
Some people showed interest in these stats, and I don't mind posting them since I am doing the analysis anyway. I plan to continue this analysis through the end of the season and see if any reasonable conclusions can be drawn then.
Overall, the average predicted vs actual point differential is even smaller this week than last (only 0.2 points vs 0.3), and the variance is down a bit with a standard deviation of 14. Sagarin correctly predicted the winner 81% of the time.
Out of 106 games between DI opponents:
--> Average difference between Sagarin's predicted point differential and the actual point differential is only 0.2 points (0.3 points last week), with a standard deviation of 14 points (16 last week).
--> (81.1%) 86 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner (75.9% last week)
--> (11.3%) 17 games were within 2 points of Sagarin's predictions in either direction (15.7% last week)
--> (17.9%) 13 games were between 2 & 5 points off Sagarin's predictions (12.0% last week)
--> (30.2%) 23 games were between 5 & 10 points off Sagarin's predictions (21.3% last week)
--> (12.3%) 17 games were between 10 & 15 points off Sagarin's predictions (15.7% last week)
--> (28.3%) 38 games were greater than 15 points off Sagarin's predictions (35.2% last week)
Another reason to be pissed at Montana State.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Out of curiousity, approximately how many of these were blowouts that Sagarin predicted a blowout but by 15+ more points. NDSU doesn't have any examples, but let's try to use ISUb as an example. Sagarin predicted a 36 point spread and we won by 46. What if we won by 52 thus putting that game in the 15+ point category.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
The reason I ask is I think that 28% is very misleading when in reality no one should be setting a line at 50 points. Does that make sense?
Makes sense to me, seems like there should just be a 21-and-over bucket (or thereabouts) because the point differential in a lot of games beyond that depends on how soon the third-stringers come in and/or the game plan changes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
If the standard deviation is running around 14-16 those are roughly the percentages you'd expect.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
If, in reality no one should be setting a line at 50 points. That's only reality because betters are unwilling to lay that many points despite the objective evidence. If you think Sagarin or some other objective model is good at predicting games, those are exactly the kind of market inefficiencies that you're looking to take advantage of.
Very good point I didn't consider. Question from someone who hasn't ever placed a sports bet - How many people are betting on the games that are showing Alabama -40? I get how if the line is 25 and Sagarin or another model is showing 40 it would be a good bet, but what if the line is 40 and Sagarin is showing 55? There can't be many who would have the confidence to place that bet is there?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I don't have any idea how the handle changes depending on how big the spreads are. I'm sure the books have a very good idea, though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
If you're not gambling more than you can afford to lose, and you're sufficiently convinced that you've identified an edge, there's no objective reason to be afraid of any line.
If you are gambling more than you can afford to lose, the rest of it doesn't make any difference.
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.97 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
USD 99.3% (+0.1 percentage points from last week)
11-0 99.3% (+16.6)
10-1 0.7% (-16.5)
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Playoffs:
Sagarin gives NDSU a 60.8% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana State 52.5% (Tennessee State 47.5%)
#8 N. Arizona 79.2% (Furman 16.2%)
#5 SE Louisiana 54.4% (#4 Maine 40.1%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 68.1% (#3 E. Washington 12.5%)
CUSA 59.62 (-0.20 from last week)
MVFC 59.35 (+0.11)
MAC 58.05 (-0.67)
Sn Blt 57.30 (-0.78)
NDSU's 79.90 would rank:
2nd in the American Athletic (+1 from last week)
4th in the ACC (+1)
4th in the Big Ten (=0)
4th in the Big 12 (+1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
2nd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (-1)
8th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
I find it interesting that the PAC 12 North & South have the 2nd and 3rd spots, while the SEC West & East have the 1st and 4th spots. Get tired of ESPN's proclamations of the SEC being so much better than everyone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I am hoping for Montana State, then Northern Arizona, and then Maine. Would be great to have Eastern Washington in final and Brock to get sweet revenge. Just blow them away!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I believe all the sub-d1 teams are regarded as one team, 'unranked' and that is calculated as if it were a normal team.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Regardless, if we had a win against MSU on our record, we would be higher in ratings right??Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
Even more reason to piss pound them when and if they come here for PO game. I doubt they get past UM tho.
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Well, Sagarin doesn't think much of MSU so we probably would have needed to pound them.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
So, would a win over them helped or hurt S rating? Just curios. That win would replace Ferris win keep in mind. Massey?!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
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If we'd have won by like 4 TDs or so, yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Wow, interesting!! What If we would have played them then rather then now. Know what I mean?!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
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I'm picturing Baudit and HSmith frantically typing numbers into their puters to figure this out--could take a while, but, then again, I am not a math guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
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Then or now wouldn't matter at all, I don't think. I'm pretty sure that Sagarin balances everything out over the entire season.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
I was just going to ask that same question after seeing we would be 10th in the PAC 12 and 8th in the SEC. What are the ranking of the BCS conferences out of curiousity? Part of me wants the SEC to not be represented in the National Championship game, but then everyone would just say "The computers kept the SEC out. We all know who the champ should have been."Quote:
Originally Posted by runtheoption