Thanks, Bootfitter, for the post and extra data fields. Glad the loss didn't hurt us even worse in the power rankings.
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Thanks, Bootfitter, for the post and extra data fields. Glad the loss didn't hurt us even worse in the power rankings.
NDSU still top dog in the FCS according to Sagarin.
Numbers and stuff:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/h...of-cincinnati/
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Missouri State 86.6% (-2.5% from last week)
Youngstown State 90.7% (-4.0%)
11-1 78.5% (+46.8% from last week)
10-2 20.3% (+16.2%)
9-3 1.3% (+1.1%)
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
So, still over 78% to likely lock up home field, but chances have clearly risen to play some games on the road.....Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Odd. The USA Today page is updated already, but Sagarin's page isn't yet (again). Both pages seem to have the data stored in the same format, but when I pull from the USA Today page into my automated formulas, it doesn't work.
Anyway, we stayed at the same rank in Sagarin's RATING system (#38), but we jumped up over a point. I'll update the stats once I can either figure out the reason for the difference or when the Sagarin page is updated.
I say FCS should retire all polls and just use Sagarin. That has NDSU #1 and UNI #2. That is accurate....
Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Careful what you wish for...
Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions
Wow! Four of the top five from the MVFC!Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
38 North Dakota State 77.53
76 Iowa State 66.79 +7.59 +20.00 +12.41
204 Weber State 41.99 +32.39 +17.00 -15.39
230 Incarnate Word 29.82 +50.86 +58.00 +7.14
128 Montana 55.99 +24.69 +12.00 -12.69
132 Western Illinois 55.41 +18.97 +7.00 -11.97
109 Southern Illinois 60.86 +19.82 +28.00 +8.18
101 Indiana State 61.59 +19.09 +17.00 -2.09
177 South Dakota 47.46 +26.92 +40.00 +13.08
74 South Dakota State 67.43 +13.25 +20.00 +6.75
58 Northern Iowa 71.27 +3.11 -20.00 -23.11
124 Missouri State 56.81 +17.57 +35.00 +17.43
110 Youngstown State 60.09 +20.59
66 Illinois State 69.69
Total Diff: -0.26
Home Field 3.15
Sagarin FCS Top-25
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 38 77.53 North Dakota State 57.07 130 Missouri Valley
2 58 71.27 Northern Iowa 60.86 105 Missouri Valley
3 65 70.04 Jacksonville State 51.28 158 Ohio Valley
4 66 69.69 Illinois State 54.62 144 Missouri Valley
5 74 67.43 South Dakota State 63.14 92 Missouri Valley
6 82 65.79 New Hampshire 47.03 192 Colonial
7 86 65.35 Coastal Carolina 44.24 206 Big South
8 89 64.56 Chattanooga 50.47 167 Southern
9 90 64.51 Villanova 48.51 181 Colonial
10 94 63.42 Harvard 39.33 227 Ivy League
11 95 63.26 Eastern Washington 51.10 163 Big Sky
12 98 62.17 SE Louisiana 47.18 190 Southland
13 101 61.59 Indiana State 62.32 100 Missouri Valley
14 103 61.48 Sam Houston State 50.16 170 Southland
15 107 61.07 Fordham 40.31 225 Patriot
16 109 60.86 Southern Illinois 60.13 110 Missouri Valley
17 110 60.09 Youngstown State 54.31 146 Missouri Valley
18 114 58.52 Eastern Illinois 54.64 143 Ohio Valley
19 115 58.44 Samford 49.44 176 Southern
20 118 57.80 Liberty 50.56 166 Big South
21 122 57.05 Idaho State 54.69 142 Big Sky
22 123 56.97 McNeese State 50.39 168 Southland
23 124 56.81 Missouri State 61.24 103 Missouri Valley
24 125 56.78 Richmond 49.14 178 Colonial
25 126 56.23 James Madison 51.28 159 Colonial
Looks like Marshall passed us up from the Conf-USA.Code:
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank
P5 SEC 85.02 97.76 13
P5 BIG 12 79.11 93.38 7
P5 PAC-12 78.53 92.66 8
P5 BIG TEN 74.72 89.47 5
P5 ACC 74.34 86.77 7
NA I-A INDEPENDENTS 69.07 81.53 2
G5 MWC 63.75 76.18 1
G5 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 63.36 75.23 1
FCS MISSOURI VALLEY 62.67 77.53 1
G5 CONFERENCE USA 59.43 79.78 2
G5 MAC 57.11 66.70 1
G5 SUN BELT 55.27 68.35 1
FCS BIG SOUTH 49.84 65.35 1
FCS COLONIAL 49.62 65.79 1
FCS SOUTHLAND 48.80 62.17 1
FCS SOUTHERN 48.20 64.56 1
FCS OHIO VALLEY 47.88 70.04 1
FCS BIG SKY 47.74 63.26 1
FCS PATRIOT 44.62 61.07 1
FCS I-AA INDEPENDENTS 43.18 43.18 1
FCS IVY LEAGUE 42.52 63.42 1
FCS NORTHEAST 42.47 52.03 1
FCS MID-EASTERN 36.34 50.40 1
FCS SWAC 31.48 51.37 1
FCS PIONEER 27.67 44.49 1
4 Valley teams in Sagarin FCS top 5...wow!