Sagarin says

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10-05-2014, 02:29 PM
thebootfitter

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.

What website did you pull from? I've been refreshing http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm for awhile, and it is still is showing the 9/27 results.
10-05-2014, 02:36 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebootfitter

What website did you pull from? I've been refreshing http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm for awhile, and it is still is showing the 9/27 results.

USA Today. Sometimes they update first. Exact same format, just annoying ads and two separate pages for team and conference.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/team/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...14/conference/

Also might want to try ctrl-f5 on sagarin's website. I also tried his website this morning and kept getting last week's results. I went there just now and it was still sept 27. I forced refresh(ctrl-f5) and the oct 4 results came up. (wish I would've remembered to try that a couple hours ago)
10-05-2014, 02:41 PM
NDSU1980

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.

Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions

Code:

Sagarin Predict Result Diff 52 North Dakota State 74.15 67 Iowa State 69.86 +0.85 +20.00 +19.15 200 Weber State 44.93 +25.78 +17.00 -8.78 239 Incarnate Word 28.21 +49.38 +58.00 +8.62 125 Montana 57.89 +19.70 +12.00 -7.70 155 Western Illinois 51.71 +19.00 +7.00 -12.00 86 Southern Illinois 65.05 +12.54 106 Indiana State 61.23 +16.36 162 South Dakota 50.91 +19.80 90 South Dakota State 64.39 +13.20 79 Northern Iowa 66.75 +3.96 98 Missouri State 62.89 +7.82 104 Youngstown State 61.37 +16.22 71 Illinois State 68.66 Total Diff: -0.71 Home Field 3.44

Sagarin FCS Top-25

Code:

1 52 North Dakota State 2 63 Villanova 3 71 Illinois State 4 77 McNeese State 5 79 Northern Iowa 6 81 Eastern Washington 7 85 Jacksonville State 8 86 Southern Illinois 9 87 Coastal Carolina 10 90 South Dakota State 11 93 New Hampshire 12 98 Missouri State 13 99 Chattanooga 14 101 SE Louisiana 15 104 Youngstown State 16 106 Indiana State 17 110 Sam Houston State 18 113 Eastern Kentucky 19 119 Harvard 20 120 Richmond 21 122 Fordham 22 123 William & Mary 23 125 Montana 24 133 Montana State 25 135 Northwestern State

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

Code:

1. MVFC 63.06 2. Southland 50.43 3. Southern 50.05 4. Big Sky 49.97 5. Colonial 49.86

FBS Comparisons

Code:

#1 in the MVFC, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS #2 in C-USA #3 in the AAC #8 in the Big 12 #9 in the ACC #10 in the Big Ten and PAC-12 #14 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

Code:

1. AAC 66.05 2. MWC 64.03 3. MVFC 63.06 4. C-USA 61.47 5. MAC 57.95 6. SBC 55.93 7. SLC 50.43 8. Socon 50.05 9. BSC 49.97 10. CAA 49.86

Why did we drop against UNI? I would think their loss would have added points even though we didn't win by as much as expected.
10-05-2014, 02:48 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by NDSU1980

Why did we drop against UNI? I would think their loss would have added points even though we didn't win by as much as expected.

Short version: we dropped more than they did. They only dropped by a half point. We dropped by roughly 1.75 points.
10-05-2014, 10:18 PM
Herd

Re: Sagarin says

I am assuming, like I said two weeks ago, that our drop is mainly due to not covering the predicted spead, even though we got the W.
10-06-2014, 01:08 PM
bisonaudit

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by Herd

I am assuming, like I said two weeks ago, that our drop is mainly due to not covering the predicted spead, even though we got the W.

Yeah, we were like a 22 1/2 point favorite and won by 7 while they were an 8 1/2 favorite and lost by 1. The model missed our game by 15 1/2 but it only missed theirs by 9 1/2. The odds that the model would be at least that wrong about our game due entirely to chance were only about 13% while for UNI was about 24%. So the UNI result was 85% more likely than ours.
10-06-2014, 01:18 PM
semobison

Re: Sagarin says

Um...I don't get it? Why is UNI 5 and ISUb 16?
10-06-2014, 01:48 PM
bisonaudit

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by semobison

Um...I don't get it? Why is UNI 5 and ISUb 16?

Because based on priors the model believed UNI was 8 1/2 points better and the model also knows how hard it is to predict these games. It expected, ISUb to win about 25% of the time just by chance, even if its evaluation of the skill of each team were 100% correct. So it's not going to flip those two teams just because of one new data point. Instead it reduced its estimate of UNI's skill by 1/2 a point and increased ISUb by 6. If they played again next week on the same field ISUb would be just a 2 point dog not 8 1/2 which is a fairly substantial impact. From about a 25% chance of victory up to about 45%.
10-06-2014, 02:29 PM
semobison

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by bisonaudit

Because based on priors the model believed UNI was 8 1/2 points better and the model also knows how hard it is to predict these games. It expected, ISUb to win about 25% of the time just by chance, even if its evaluation of the skill of each team were 100% correct. So it's not going to flip those two teams just because of one new data point. Instead it reduced its estimate of UNI's skill by 1/2 a point and increased ISUb by 6. If they played again next week on the same field ISUb would be just a 2 point dog not 8 1/2 which is a fairly substantial impact. From about a 25% chance of victory up to about 45%.

Ok...LOL,,,Its like ISUb stuck 5 dollars into a jar and pulled out 20 bucks!
10-06-2014, 02:36 PM
bisonaudit

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by semobison

Ok...LOL,,,Its like ISUb stuck 5 dollars into a jar and pulled out 20 bucks!

Only if pulling out a $20 also increased your chances of pulling out another $20 the next time by 80%.

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