Sagarin says

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10-01-2014, 04:08 AM
thebootfitter

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by gumby013

Anyone want to take a stab at estimating the % chance of breaking Oklahoma's 47 game streak? Perfect this year plus 4 playoff game would be 40. So, 8 games into next year's schedule to break it.

I think we'd have to assume that all teams on the schedule, including projected playoff teams and those on next year's schedule, would have their current ratings.

We could use some specified early playoff projections or just assume that we play an average of the bottom quartile of the top 24 in the first/second round, average of the next quartile in the third round, average of the teams 7-12 in the semis, and then the second rated team in the finals (which right now is SDSU, isn't it?)

It seems to me that the odds are pretty low, but I am curious what the answer is too. Audit usually does the projections during playoff time, right? Is this a reasonable task?

(Or we could just say the odds are 50/50. Either we do it or we don't.)
10-01-2014, 08:37 AM
Green1

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by bisonaudit

So is every other religious or mythological text.

Belief in nothing, is still a belief.

Dip shit. You wanted to start it . You got it.
10-01-2014, 09:14 AM
Green1

Re: Sagarin says

See me on the smack thread. We will spare everyone the pain of your response.
10-01-2014, 12:04 PM
stevdock

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by gumby013

Anyone want to take a stab at estimating the % chance of breaking Oklahoma's 47 game streak? Perfect this year plus 4 playoff game would be 40. So, 8 games into next year's schedule to break it.

I know this doesn't really answer your question but we are a breakaway DJ TD that turned into a fumble against Youngstown and one Pick 6 against Indy St away from being at 49 currently.

As of right now though we would be favored in every game for the rest of this year.
10-01-2014, 12:38 PM
El_Chapo

Re: Sagarin says

We should be at 49 and 4 titles as well.
10-01-2014, 01:01 PM
acf2

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by El_Chapo

We should be at 49 and 4 titles as well.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts....
10-01-2014, 01:10 PM
bisonaudit

Re: Sagarin says

If you take the Sagarin ratings and pull out the top rated team from each AQ conference and then fill in the at-large teams again based on the ratings, then rank those 24 teams again based on Sagarin numbers and fill out a bracket without regard to any other polls, bracketology or geography, NDSU has a 13% chance of going 16-0. That would get you to 40 in a row, I think.

From there you can mess around with the odds of winning 7 or 8 more games. If you make them all true coin flips it's about 1 in 1,000 to tie the record of 47 and 1 in 2,000 to eclipse it.

If you make the rest of the games 75/25 it's about 1 in 60 to tie and 1 in 80 to exceed.

So that gives you an idea anyway.
10-01-2014, 01:11 PM
westnodak93bison

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by acf2

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts....

We would want more beer
:D
10-01-2014, 02:04 PM
thebootfitter

Re: Sagarin says

Quote:

Originally Posted by bisonaudit

If you take the Sagarin ratings and pull out the top rated team from each AQ conference and then fill in the at-large teams again based on the ratings, then rank those 24 teams again based on Sagarin numbers and fill out a bracket without regard to any other polls, bracketology or geography, NDSU has a 13% chance of going 16-0. That would get you to 40 in a row, I think.

From there you can mess around with the odds of winning 7 or 8 more games. If you make them all true coin flips it's about 1 in 1,000 to tie the record of 47 and 1 in 2,000 to eclipse it.

If you make the rest of the games 75/25 it's about 1 in 60 to tie and 1 in 80 to exceed.

So that gives you an idea anyway.

13% chance of another natty and undefeated year this year based on Sagarin figures? I know the game is played on the field for a reason and anything can happen, but I like those odds!
10-05-2014, 01:52 PM
Hammersmith

Re: Sagarin says

Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.

Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions

Code:

Sagarin Predict Result Diff 52 North Dakota State 74.15 67 Iowa State 69.86 +0.85 +20.00 +19.15 200 Weber State 44.93 +25.78 +17.00 -8.78 239 Incarnate Word 28.21 +49.38 +58.00 +8.62 125 Montana 57.89 +19.70 +12.00 -7.70 155 Western Illinois 51.71 +19.00 +7.00 -12.00 86 Southern Illinois 65.05 +12.54 106 Indiana State 61.23 +16.36 162 South Dakota 50.91 +19.80 90 South Dakota State 64.39 +13.20 79 Northern Iowa 66.75 +3.96 98 Missouri State 62.89 +7.82 104 Youngstown State 61.37 +16.22 71 Illinois State 68.66 Total Diff: -0.71 Home Field 3.44

Sagarin FCS Top-25

Code:

1 52 North Dakota State 2 63 Villanova 3 71 Illinois State 4 77 McNeese State 5 79 Northern Iowa 6 81 Eastern Washington 7 85 Jacksonville State 8 86 Southern Illinois 9 87 Coastal Carolina 10 90 South Dakota State 11 93 New Hampshire 12 98 Missouri State 13 99 Chattanooga 14 101 SE Louisiana 15 104 Youngstown State 16 106 Indiana State 17 110 Sam Houston State 18 113 Eastern Kentucky 19 119 Harvard 20 120 Richmond 21 122 Fordham 22 123 William & Mary 23 125 Montana 24 133 Montana State 25 135 Northwestern State

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

Code:

1. MVFC 63.06 2. Southland 50.43 3. Southern 50.05 4. Big Sky 49.97 5. Colonial 49.86

FBS Comparisons

Code:

#1 in the MVFC, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS #2 in C-USA #3 in the AAC #8 in the Big 12 #9 in the ACC #10 in the Big Ten and PAC-12 #14 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

Code:

1. AAC 66.05 2. MWC 64.03 3. MVFC 63.06 4. C-USA 61.47 5. MAC 57.95 6. SBC 55.93 7. SLC 50.43 8. Socon 50.05 9. BSC 49.97 10. CAA 49.86

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