NDSU 35
SHSU 63
Minn 68
Minnesota Relevant right? :rofl:
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NDSU 35
SHSU 63
Minn 68
Minnesota Relevant right? :rofl:
Sagarin predicts Minny would beat Georgia Southern by 1 on a neutral field. I'm not so sure about that. :)
I don't believe that MN has the discipline on defense to get it done. GSU would run all over them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
Actually Teach, we're #32 in the ranking that matters (predictor). Either way, that's pretty cool.Quote:
Originally Posted by BisonTeacher
I think Willie Fritz and Brian Bell would rank NDSU quite a bit higher than Sagarin.
We could have been in the top 25 if we didn't blow that game to Indiana St. I think that killed us.
The Bison finished higher than any FBS team in the MAC, MWC, CUSA, or Sun Belt and higher than all but one Big East team. The Missouri Valley as a conference finished rated higher than the Mountain West.
There are some pretty damn solid programs looking up at the Bison.
Which begs the question, yet again, why MAC, CUSA, and Sun Belt aren't in FCS. I just don't get it. I do understand MWC and Big East being FBS (although Big East may be dying.....)Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
Can someone explain this to me, please?
Using "Lakes Math":
NDSU > Youngstown > Pitt = Notre Dame. Bring on ALABAMA! LET'S DO THIS!!!!!!!
You have to get up to the mid teens before you get teams favored by 7 on a neutral field.
Good question. You could also add: How did Northern Ill. end up ranked 15 in the AP and end up in a BCS Bowl?Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
New BCS rule I believe that if a non-BCS conference team is in the top 16 and is rated better than a BCS conference champion, they are guaranteed a BCS bowl game.Quote:
Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN
You are right but did they deserve the Top 15 ranking??Quote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
That's the question.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
Nope. Not even close.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
So they can get on ESPN if they schedule a game on Wed. or Thurs.???
Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
You just laid out the reason why NDSU should NEVER consider a move to FBS as it currently exists. NIU lost their first game 18-17 to Iowa and then won 12 straight. The end result is no respect. We would be no different.Quote:
Originally Posted by 344Johnson
With an oppenents winning percentage at about 35%? Oh hell yes they deserved it lol. Just another obvious flaw in the FBS system, rankings are tied too much too record. I'd like to say this would not have happened in the FCS using Lehigh as an example after being left out of the playoffs this year.
We're better than Sagarin says. Top 25...somewhere between 10 and 20.
I just can't quite agree with you about 10-20 I believe that to be unrealistic we didn't beat anyone in the top 25 nor did any of our direct opponents I don't thinkk
I agree with the unbison here. I think 35 is about right. That being said, I think this team could beat a 15-25 ranked team. This is one game once in a while. The lack of depth with the lesser number of scholarships would be very painful over the course of a season. So this exact Bison team would have a very hard time breaking the top 30 over the course of a fbs season. Now give the program the 22 extra scholarships and project the gap closes through the depth chart, and then I would say they could have been a top 25 team with an fbs schedule.Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Not even close. I think 32 is a bit too high. Definately top 50 though. Maybe somewhere between 40-50.Quote:
Originally Posted by CaBisonFan
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/1...020sweexj5.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by CaBisonFan
Well I suppose I might as well do this again. Sorry about forgetting about it until now. I'm sure all -5 people who follow this thread were disappointed. Remember that Sagarin is not well connected yet, so take it with a huge grain of salt. We've got a couple more weeks before he stops using data from last year. The top-4 conferences needed to be expanded to top-5 this year due to the Southland displacing the SoCon for 4th place.
Sagarin's week 4 predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
50 North Dakota State 74.81
27 Kansas State 79.60 -10.08 + 3.00 +13.08
NA Ferris State NA NA +46.00 NA
225 Delaware State 38.55 +41.55
85 South Dakota State 66.56 + 2.96
86 Northern Iowa 66.50 +13.60
168 Missouri State 52.16 +27.94
103 Southern Illinois 62.89 + 6.63
129 Indiana State 58.92 +10.60
117 Illinois State 59.53 +20.57
121 Youngstown State 59.15 +10.37
179 South Dakota 48.99 +31.11
163 Western Illinois 53.08
Total Diff: +13.08
Home 5.29
Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:50 North Dakota State
80 Towson
83 Eastern Washington
84 Eastern Illinois
85 South Dakota State
86 Northern Iowa
90 Montana
92 Georgia Southern
100 Sam Houston State
101 Montana State
103 Southern Illinois
111 Central Arkansas
112 Richmond
114 Chattanooga
115 Villanova
117 Illinois State
118 William & Mary
120 Stony Brook
121 Youngstown State
124 Cal Poly
128 Old Dominion
129 Indiana State
130 SE Louisiana
132 McNeese State
133 Wofford
How long until somebody says that I'm using the wrong Sagarin numbers this year?Code:1. MVFC 60.02
2. Colonial 56.93
3. Big Sky 55.65
4. Southland 54.47
5. Southern 54.42
NDSU's 74.81 would rank:
4th in the American Athletic
7th in the ACC
9th in the Big Ten
8th in the Big 12
1st in Conference USA
1st in the MAC
3rd in the MWC
10th in the PAC 12
13th in the SEC
1st in the Sun Belt
That's lame.
Don't worry, when KState beats Texas, we'll jump up quite a bitQuote:
Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10
Based on Sagarin's numbers (look no further than the 5.29 home field number for evidence its early) w/ 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Del St 99.9%
SDSU 58.7%
UNI 84.3%
Mo St 98.0%
S Ill 68.9%
Ind St 78.4%
Ill St 95.6%
YSU 77.9%
USD 98.9%
11-0 19.2%
10-1 38.1%
9-2 29.2%
8-3 11.1%
7-4 2.2%
6-5 0.2%
5-6 0.01%
4-7 0.0002%
3-8 0.000001%
2-9 0.000000001%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86.
How does the valley as a whole compare with the sun beltQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
So you're saying there's a chance???Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
CUSA 61.57Quote:
Originally Posted by missingnumber7
MAC 60.95
Sn Blt 60.65
MVFC 60.02
Hammer and Audit,
After SDSU takes out Nebraska on Saturday, will NDSU move up to where they belong (higher than Nebraska and K St.), finally? (Can't figure out how nebraska is higher at this point....)
It's still pulling statistics from last yearQuote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Basically, we need K State to keep winning to keep the ranking sky high.
SDSU will choke. No matter how much Nebraska will try to give it* to them, SDSU will just choke.**Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
*A victory
**on it*
Thats actually closer than I thought it would be. The MAC and CUSA are lower then they have been in years past.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
This isn't an official release, but here is where my system is aiming. Data from last year is still being used.
Bison at #27 overall.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1E&usp=sharing
Damn you, Kansas State. NDSU slips 8 spots because of you. I was going to add a "not really" to that, but it is actually their fault. Last week they were in the top-30, which gave us an SOS boost for the win. With them falling out of the top-30, we lost the boost.
Northern Iowa makes an unlikely appearance in the #2 spot. Not sure how much of that is this year and how much is last year's SOS.
Also, the Southland Conference continues its rise by displacing the Big Sky for 3rd place after the MVFC and CAA.
Sagarin's Week 5 Predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
58 North Dakota State 72.97
42 Kansas State 77.06 -9.32 3.00 12.32
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
222 Delaware State 38.05 40.15 51.00 10.85
98 South Dakota State 63.86 3.88
72 Northern Iowa 69.36 8.84
165 Missouri State 52.55 25.65
102 Southern Illinois 62.45 5.29
126 Indiana State 58.00 9.74
149 Illinois State 54.89 23.31
114 Youngstown State 59.87 7.87
181 South Dakota 47.49 30.71
177 Western Illinois 49.14
Total Diff: 23.17
Home 5.23
Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 58 North Dakota State
2 72 Northern Iowa
3 82 Towson
4 86 Eastern Washington
5 88 Eastern Illinois
6 91 Montana
7 92 Villanova
8 93 Georgia Southern
9 98 South Dakota State
10 102 Southern Illinois
11 103 Richmond
12 105 McNeese State
13 106 Sam Houston State
14 107 Central Arkansas
15 113 Montana State
16 114 Youngstown State
17 117 Illinois State
18 118 Cal Poly
19 120 Chattanooga
20 122 Maine
21 124 William & Mary
22 125 SE Louisiana
23 126 Indiana State
24 133 Old Dominion
25 136 New Hampshire
Code:1. MVFC 58.85
2. Colonial 56.45
3. Southland 54.48
4. Big Sky 54.36
5. Southern 53.22
Something looks wrong about the rating and results so far. If NDSU is +12.32 and +10.85, shouldn't they just have a higher rating?