Tomorrow morning should be interesting.
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Tomorrow morning should be interesting.
Yeah, I would have to think ISU jumps up a bit after their 3-point win at Iowa and their showing at K-State last week. That should help push us up. MVFC might go up even more, especially if UNI wins or has a strong showing against Hawaii.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
The Missouri Valley did very well so far this weekend.
Those teams weren't NDSU. I don't want to see this team test it, but it will be given every, and I do mean every, benefit of the doubt by the selection committee. I don't know what else SHSU could have done last year to not make the playoffs, but NDSU will be given even more latitude. Then by default, just about everyone in between the autobid and them in the MVFC will get to go along for the ride. This is what the MVFC wants when NDSU does have a bad season. Just bad enough to bring 3 or 4 teams along to the playoffs with them.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk
Well, NDSU falls to 37. We are going to have to whoop some butt for another top 25, I'd think.
MVFC is coming back to earth with some non-P5 FBS conferences overtaking them.
Probably the most shocking thing for me was Villinova and SDSU are #2 and #3 respectively in FCS....
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
My first thought was "ouch, we fell 7 slots." Then I realized that last week's #30 was probably too high, given the performance against Weber, so 37 is about right given what we've seen so far this year.
I suspect it's more about the data becoming more connected than anything else. And this year's data replacing historical data in the model.
17-18 point favorites in Montana. Sounds about right.
Sagarin's Week 4 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
37 North Dakota State 77.37
73 Iowa State 68.50 +4.90 +20.00 +15.10
193 Weber State 46.11 +27.29 +17.00 -10.29
232 Incarnate Word 36.90 +44.44 +58.00 +13.56
95 Montana 63.51 +17.83
166 Western Illinois 51.52 +21.88
88 Southern Illinois 65.00 +16.34
160 Indiana State 52.52 +28.82
147 South Dakota 55.75 +17.65
64 South Dakota State 69.82 +11.52
85 Northern Iowa 65.33 +8.07
109 Missouri State 60.68 +12.72
110 Youngstown State 60.56 +20.78
104 Illinois State 62.15
Total Diff: +18.37
Home Field 3.97
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 37 North Dakota State
2 62 Villanova
3 64 South Dakota State
4 67 Eastern Washington
5 83 Jacksonville State
6 85 Northern Iowa
7 88 Southern Illinois
8 91 McNeese State
9 95 Montana
10 97 New Hampshire
11 103 Coastal Carolina
12 104 Illinois State
13 105 Chattanooga
14 106 SE Louisiana
15 109 Missouri State
16 110 Youngstown State
17 114 William & Mary
18 121 Princeton
19 122 Montana State
20 124 Liberty
21 125 Richmond
22 128 Samford
23 129 Northern Arizona
24 130 Sam Houston State
25 131 Tennessee State
Code:1. MVFC 61.77
2. Ohio Valley 53.53
3. Colonial 53.29
4. Big Sky 52.68
5. Southland 51.07
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the MVFC, MWC, C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2 in the AAC
#5 in the Big Ten
#6 in the Big 12
#7 in the ACC
#9 in the PAC-12
#11 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 65.99
2. MWC 64.39
3. MVFC 61.77
4. C-USA 61.16
5. MAC 58.45
6. SBC 56.69
7. CAA 55.01
8. OVC 54.64
9. BSC 53.50
10. SoCon 51.42
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.97 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Montana 90.6 87.4% (+3.2% from last week)
Western Illinois 96.4 97.7% (-1.3%)
Southern Illinois 88.6 81.5% (+7.1%)
Indiana State 98.3 99.1% (-0.8%)
South Dakota 90.4 88.6% (+1.8%)
South Dakota State 80.3 86.8% (-6.5%)
Northern Iowa 72.5 61.6% (+10.9%)
Missouri State 82.7 92.8% (-10.1%)
Youngstown State 93.7 92.5% (+1.2%)
12-0 31.0% (+3.0% from last week)
11-1 40.1% (-1.0%)
10-2 21.5% (-1.5%)
9-3 6.2% (-0.4%)
8-4 1.1% (=0.0%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0003%
4-8 0.00001%
3-9 0.00000004%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.