Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
:rofl:
Check rep SD!!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
:rofl:
Check rep SD!!
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.52 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Incarnate Word 99.98% (+0.2% from last week)
Montana 87.3% (-2.8%)
Western Illinois 97.7% (+0.2%)
Southern Illinois 81.5% (-4.7%)
Indiana State 99.1% (-0.1%)
South Dakota 88.5% (-4.5%)
South Dakota State 86.9% (+4.6%)
Northern Iowa 61.5% (-7.6%)
Missouri State 92.8% (+4.7%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (+2.6%)
12-0 28.0% (-2.9% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+0.7%)
10-2 23.0% (+1.6%)
9-3 6.7% (+0.6%)
8-4 1.1% (+0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0002%
4-8 0.000003%
3-9 0.00000001%
2-10 0.000000000003%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
No idea really. We moved up in both place and rating, but UNI moved up more. And they didn't even play yesterday. Give it another couple weeks to get enough data on this season instead of whatever historical model he uses to start off with. This stuff is pretty meaningless and just for fun at the best of times, and the first few weeks of the season take that to the extreme.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
Would love for this to be top 10 non P5 conferencesQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Dammit. Sagarin must have updated after the Delaware/Delaware State game. Here are the updated numbers. OVC & CAA swap spots on the conference list. Wofford in, Portland State out on the top-25. A few swaps in the top-25 as well.
Sagarin's Week 3 Predictions (Updated)
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
30 North Dakota State 79.01
101 Iowa State 63.54 +11.96 +20.00 +8.04
204 Weber State 44.29 +31.21 +17.00 -14.21
241 Incarnate Word 33.60 +48.92
74 Montana 67.02 +15.50
171 Western Illinois 50.94 +24.56
62 Southern Illinois 70.38 +12.14
175 Indiana State 50.16 +32.36
121 South Dakota 59.19 +16.31
73 South Dakota State 67.42 +15.10
58 Northern Iowa 71.54 +3.96
142 Missouri State 55.67 +19.83
104 Youngstown State 62.97 +19.55
72 Illinois State 67.68
Total Diff: -6.17
Home Field 3.51
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 30 North Dakota State
2 58 Northern Iowa
3 62 Southern Illinois
4 69 Villanova
5 72 Illinois State
6 73 South Dakota State
7 74 Montana
8 78 McNeese State
9 81 William & Mary
10 84 Eastern Washington
11 87 New Hampshire
12 91 Bethune-Cookman
13 95 SE Louisiana
14 97 Jacksonville State
15 102 Coastal Carolina
16 104 Youngstown State
17 105 Montana State
18 113 Eastern Kentucky
19 120 Tennessee State
20 121 South Dakota
21 122 Chattanooga
22 123 Princeton
23 128 Liberty
24 129 Wofford
25 130 Northern Arizona
Code:1. MVFC 63.73
2. Ohio Valley 54.71
3. Colonial 54.35
4. Big Sky 53.59
5. Southern 51.55
Is this what you are looking for? (note: AAC just barely edged the MVFC after the update)Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Code:1. American Athletic 63.73
2. Missouri Valley 63.73
3. Mountain West 62.83
4. Mid-American 59.50
5. Conference-USA 59.17
6. Sun Belt 58.35
7. Ohio Valley 54.71
8. Colonial 54.35
9. Big Sky 53.59
10. Southern 51.55
Yes this list gets me all giddy. If you can add it each week or replace for the top 5 FCS, I for one would love itQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Ovc over colonial. Give me a break. Lets wait a few weeks for it to be connected.
Sure. It takes a touch more work since I have to calculate the conference rankings for the multi-division conferences(MWC, MAC, C-USA; you don't just average them together), but it's no different than what I had to do last year to recalculate all the FCS conference ratings for Predictor. I've got the Excel formulas already set up.Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
But don't expect the MVFC to stay that high. Like the crabby NDB2(I repeat myself) was inferring, these early ratings are pretty much worthless until week 4 or 5.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Yes but the twitter masses gobble them up. I thank you for your work in this thread. One of the few threads I enjoy reading