Sagarin says

[El_Chapo]

Hammer and I have always enjoyed our corner court chats at halftime of basketball games at the BSA, I consider him a friend. Stick around Hammer!

[HerdBot]

Tell me about it.

It's very tempting just to go nuts the Ban Hammer... Very tempting. It's especially hard to lose a poster who posts more worthwhile stuff in a week than some posters will in a 100 years. If you want to PM to say what, if anything, you think can be done, I'm willing to listen (and that would include me turning the board over to somebody else.)

Rest up and see if you can be game ready for postseason.

This ^^^
Hammersmith is one of my favorite posters. Quality over quantity. He not only posts quality stuff, he disagrees with most people in a respectfull way. Hope his Bisonville Sabbatical is short!

[thebootfitter]

Hammersmith sent me his worksheet, and I've got some formulas to pull the information from the weekly Sagarin updates, so I'll continue posting this information during his hiatus.

Hope to see ya back soon, Hammer.

[Bison Loaf]

Hammersmith sent me his worksheet, and I've got some formulas to pull the information from the weekly Sagarin updates, so I'll continue posting this information during his hiatus.

Hope to see ya back soon, Hammer.

Next man up!!

Thank you bootfitter and Thank You Hammersmith!!!! This is a great thread!

[TransAmBison]

Thanks for all the content through the years Hammersmith. Usually I get irritated with posters when they announce their upcoming absence. This time is different. I hope things get better to the point you are once again happy here. I look forward to your insight again soon.

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.17 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Northern Iowa 76.0% (-0.1% from last week)
Missouri State 89.1% (+3.9%)
Youngstown State 94.7% (+2.3%)

12-0 64.2% (+11.1% from last week)
11-1 31.6% (-5.5%)
10-2 4.0% (-4.9%)
9-3 0.1% (-0.8%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[THEsocalledfan]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.17 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Northern Iowa 76.0% (-0.1% from last week)
Missouri State 89.1% (+3.9%)
Youngstown State 94.7% (+2.3%)

12-0 64.2% (+11.1% from last week)
11-1 31.6% (-5.5%)
10-2 4.0% (-4.9%)
9-3 0.1% (-0.8%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

Audi, please don't retire!

[cbline]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers, my thankfulness for Hammer's work on this thread is INFINITE! Thanks so much!

[Strategery]

Hammersmith sent me his worksheet, and I've got some formulas to pull the information from the weekly Sagarin updates, so I'll continue posting this information during his hiatus.

Hope to see ya back soon, Hammer.

Thanks for your willingness to do this, bootfitter. These updates are easily the most interesting thing on the board IMO. Hammer's and Audit's work is much appreciated. Hope to see Hammer back sooner than later.

[runtheoption]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.17 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Northern Iowa 76.0% (-0.1% from last week)
Missouri State 89.1% (+3.9%)
Youngstown State 94.7% (+2.3%)

12-0 64.2% (+11.1% from last week)
11-1 31.6% (-5.5%)
10-2 4.0% (-4.9%)
9-3 0.1% (-0.8%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

You kind of touched on it a bit, but does Sagarin (or can it be extrapolated from there) explore the % chance of a certain spread happening? For example, and looking specifically at NDSU vs. UNI, there is a 9% chance NDSU wins by 24+, 19% NDSU wins by 17+, 38% chance NDSU wins by 11+, etc. I guess you would just have to pick some point breaks in the spread, say +1, +5, +10, +15, +20, -1, -5, -10, -15, -20.

Does my question make sense? I may have confused myself.