Sagarin says

[Bison bison]

I feel for the fans. Farley is another matter.

[Hammersmith]

Has our conference rating basically topped out?? I know it'll change a little bit from week to week based on how are teams do compared to others. But considering we are all in conference play it feels like there is nothing our teams can do to improve. Is the only way we can improve as a conference is for our BCS wins (Iowa St and Ball St, etc) to actually win games??

Because of the way Sagarin chooses to compute conference rankings, there is a way for the Valley to improve. Sagarin uses central mean to compute conference ratings instead of simple average. With simple average, every Valley team would be worth the same, 1/10 of the total score each. But central mean favors the middle of the conference pack at the expense of the outliers. In the Valley, the 1 & 10 teams are worth 1/30 each. 2 & 9 are worth 2/30, 3 & 8 are worth 3/30, 4 & 7 are worth 4/30, and 5 & 6 are worth 5/30. So the middle two teams combined are worth 1/3 of the conference total, and the middle four teams combined are worth 3/5.

What's that mean? Well, if the middle four teams(currently SDSU/YSU/ISUb/MSU) were to play NDSU & ISUr very close and absolutely pound WIU & USD, then the ratings of the middle of our conference would go up while the top and bottom of the conference would go down. But since central mean favors the middle, the up effect would be greater than the down, and the conference rating would rise.

This is one reason Sagarin hates the Big Sky. While NDSU's impact on the Valley's rating is only 1/30, EWU's impact on the Big Sky's is an even tinier 1/49. The mid-pack Big Sky teams aren't that good, so it drags the conference rating down.

Now is a big shift for the Valley likely to happen? Nope. But it could because of central mean.

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.28 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

South Dakota State 88.6% (+4.8% from last week)
Northern Iowa 76.1% (+1.5%)
Missouri State 85.2% (+4.6%)
Youngstown State 92.4% (-0.4%)

12-0 53.0% (+7.9% from last week)
11-1 37.1% (-3.0%)
10-2 8.9% (-4.0%)
9-3 0.9% (-0.9%)
8-4 0.03% (-0.1%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[KilldeerBison]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.28 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

South Dakota State 88.6% (+4.8% from last week)
Northern Iowa 76.1% (+1.5%)
Missouri State 85.2% (+4.6%)
Youngstown State 92.4% (-0.4%)

12-0 53.0% (+7.9% from last week)
11-1 37.1% (-3.0%)
10-2 8.9% (-4.0%)
9-3 0.9% (-0.9%)
8-4 0.03% (-0.1%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

It would be interesting to know, based upon previous history, how accurate is Sagarin at predicting the winners/losers of the last 4 games? I would think that their models become pretty accurate about this time of the season. The +7.9% change from last week, assuming the Bison go 12-0, seems like a big jump. I'll take it!

[Hammerhead]

It just seems strange that UNI is still so highly rated.

UNI had the 7th and 8th highest Sagarin rating in 2013 and 2012 and didn't make the playoffs either year. Too many FBS losses and close losses in conference play.

[bisonaudit]

It would be interesting to know, based upon previous history, how accurate is Sagarin at predicting the winners/losers of the last 4 games? I would think that their models become pretty accurate about this time of the season. The +7.9% change from last week, assuming the Bison go 12-0, seems like a big jump. I'll take it!

For the first three weeks of November last season the standard deviation between Sagarin's predicted margins and the actual outcomes were 15.12, 16.30 and 13.20. My model uses a standard deviation assumption of 13.86.

[IBleedYellow]

It would suck to be a UNI fan for sure. Have a team that consistently is good for many years, but never good enough to win it all.

Invite some up and commer who says they will dominate you within five years and that team then goes on to threepeat.

That'd fucking suck.

Sent from a TI-83+ Calculator

[Bison bison]

Dude.

They haven't been good enough to make the playoffs.

[westnodak93bison]

For the first three weeks of November last season the standard deviation between Sagarin's predicted margins and the actual outcomes were 15.12, 16.30 and 13.20. My model uses a standard deviation assumption of 13.86.

What? Why not 14.01?

[Strongman]

How much ratings value does NDSU add? I.E., what would be MVC rating without NDSU? Conversely, what would each non Big 5 conference rating be if NDSU was in each conference? I would be very interested to see how much NDSU would inflate the MAC and Sun Belt's rankings.