Sagarin says

[Strategery]

So, I looked back at the predictions Sagarin's model generated prior to each of the last 30 games (I had no numbers for KSU and Ferris so I used the lowest percentage change from all the other games for KSU and the highest for Ferris). This streak is pretty amazing, even as highly as the model has rated us over the last three seasons the chances of winning those 30 games consecutively comes out to about 1 in 133.

Also, when do the 'streaking the quad' t-shirts start showing up? 01/11/15?

What record during these 30 games had the highest probability of occurring (if it's not too much trouble)?

[Edit: It just occurred to me that a playoff loss would've changed the number of games we played, so maybe this isn't possible.]

[bisonaudit]

What record during these 30 games had the highest probability of occurring (if it's not too much trouble)?

[Edit: It just occurred to me that a playoff loss would've changed the number of games we played, so maybe this isn't possible.]

Well so much for going with the old Pascal's Triangle approach. Which was coming up with 26-4 without the complicating factor of the playoff.

[SoCalBison]

Moved up to 37 this week. I look forward to the full analysis....

[Hammersmith]

Not too much to say. Big South moves into the top 5 conferences; OVC out. Big Sky still out. Overall, MVFC teams moved up in the top-25. Eight Valley teams in the top-20. Need to beat USD by 3 TDs & a FG to meet the prediction this weekend.


Sagarin's Week 9 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff
 37	North Dakota State	77.28			
 66	Iowa State		70.42      +3.63     +20.00	+16.37
208	Weber State		42.35	  +31.70     +17.00	-14.70
240	Incarnate Word		27.42	  +53.09     +58.00	 +4.91
120	Montana			58.08	  +22.43     +12.00	-10.43
141	Western Illinois	54.53	  +19.52      +7.00	-12.52
100	Southern Illinois	62.33	  +18.18     +28.00	 +9.82
110	Indiana State		60.51	  +20.00     +17.00	 -3.00
167	South Dakota		49.25	  +24.80		
 76	South Dakota State	67.20	  +13.31		
 84	Northern Iowa		65.11	   +8.94		
 98	Missouri State		62.39	  +11.66		
109	Youngstown State	60.67	  +19.84		
					
62	Illinois State		71.00			
						Total Diff:	 -9.55
	Home Field		 3.23

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   37  North Dakota State
 2   62  Illinois State
 3   72  New Hampshire
 4   74  Villanova
 5   76  South Dakota State
 6   78  Jacksonville State
 7   84  Northern Iowa
 8   87  Coastal Carolina
 9   88  McNeese State
10   89  Eastern Washington
11   94  SE Louisiana
12   98  Missouri State
13  100  Southern Illinois
14  103  Chattanooga
15  104  Richmond
16  105  Sam Houston State
17  109  Youngstown State
18  110  Indiana State
19  111  Harvard
20  117  Fordham
21  120  Montana
22  122  Liberty
23  124  Eastern Kentucky
24  127  Eastern Illinois
25  128  Montana State

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	62.92
2.  Colonial	50.46
3.  Big South   50.33
4.  Southland	49.57
5.  Southern	49.38

FBS Comparisons

#1  in the AAC, MAC, MWC, & Sun Belt
#2  in C-USA
#5  in the Big Ten
#6  in the ACC
#7  in the Big 12
#8  in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

1.  AAC		63.93
2.  MWC		63.88
3.  MVFC	62.92
4.  C-USA	60.45
5.  MAC		56.76
6.  SBC		54.63
7.  CAA 	50.46
8.  Big South   50.33
9.  SLC		49.57
10. Socon 	49.38

[Tatanka]

LOL @ Big fluffy

/obligatory
Sent from somewhere using my Windows Phone.

[A1pigskin]

Montana really dropped.

[NDSU1980]

Montana really dropped.

No surprise, Fluffy team

[Hammersmith]

Montana really dropped.

Only one spot. They've been steadily moving down all season. The computer model doesn't like them near as much as the pollsters.


edit: Okay, maybe not steadily, but the overall trend has downward since week 2.

pre - 10
week 2 - 14
week 3 - 7
week 4 - 9
week 5 - 10
week 6 - 12
week 7 - 23
week 8 - 20
week 9 - 21

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.23 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

South Dakota 96.6% (+0.9% from last week)
South Dakota State 83.8% (-1.9%)
Northern Iowa 74.6% (+5.0%)
Missouri State 80.6% (-1.1%)
Youngstown State 92.8% (-1.2%)

12-0 45.1% (+4.6% from last week)
11-1 40.1% (-1.2%)
10-2 12.9% (-2.4%)
9-3 1.8% (-0.9%)
8-4 0.1% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.002%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[westnodak93bison]

What are the odds of holding USD scoreless for three straight years?