Sagarin says

[semobison]

Only if pulling out a $20 also increased your chances of pulling out another $20 the next time by 80%.

Accounting was never one of my strengths! I take my $20, put it in my pocket and go home a winner!

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.44 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Southern Illinois 82.3% (-8.0% from last week)
Indiana State 88.6% (-7.7%)
South Dakota 92.8% (+2.6%)
South Dakota State 83.6% (+7.2%)
Northern Iowa 61.6% (-3.5%)
Missouri State 71.9% (-7.0%)
Youngstown State 88.4% (-3.1%)

12-0 22.1% (-4.8% from last week)
11-1 39.1% (-1.6%)
10-2 27.0% (+3.1%)
9-3 9.6% (+2.4%)
8-4 1.9% (+0.7%)
7-5 0.2% (+0.1%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0003%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[Strongman]

What would Sagarin have the odds of us Quading and winning the next 10 (3 home playoffs and Frisco? 18%?

[Hammersmith]

What would Sagarin have the odds of us Quading and winning the next 10 (3 home playoffs and Frisco? 18%?

No way to know. You'd need to know who the playoff opponents are.

[td577]

I am not going to go do all the figuring out, that's stuff you guys like to do. Say everything starts similar to today, that would be the last half of the season and then the 8, 4, & 2 teams. That is worse case scenario.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[Bison bison]

Swap out the 4 and 8 for an ovc and hbcu team... that would be much more realistic.

[thebootfitter]

What would Sagarin have the odds of us Quading and winning the next 10 (3 home playoffs and Frisco? 18%?

Check out post 1267 for some perspective.

[THEsocalledfan]

Up to 39. Above Iowa. (Sorry Deputy Hawk but i liked the nice tweet!) . looking forward to Hammers post and even more to audit as the thumping has to help the odds of perfection.

[Hammersmith]

I'm surprised about our big jump. That and a couple other things makes me wonder about last week's ratings. I wish I would have looked at them yesterday to see if they had changed since last Sunday. But the MVFC continues its dominance. Less than a point separates the AAC, MWC & MVC. Half the FCS top-10 is from the Valley. Our game vs. UNI is opening up, and SDSU is now a 2-TD prediction. I noticed today that there were a couple small errors in the MAC portion of my spreadsheet. I think it means I had the MAC just a tiny bit higher than they should have been. But not enough to shift their position in relation to other conferences. Oh, and the Big Sky dropped out of the FCS top-5; Tatanka will be pleased. But you won't believe which team is sitting at 26th.


Sagarin's Week 8 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff
 39	North Dakota State	76.99			
 62	Iowa State		70.61      +3.09     +20.00     +16.91
210	Weber State		41.76	  +31.94     +17.00	-14.94
240	Incarnate Word		26.44	  +53.84     +58.00	 +4.16
115	Montana			59.35	  +20.93     +12.00	 -8.93
145	Western Illinois	54.01	  +19.69      +7.00	-12.69
 88	Southern Illinois	64.66	  +15.62     +28.00	+12.38
109	Indiana State		60.78	  +19.50		
162	South Dakota		50.41	  +23.29		
 82	South Dakota State	65.82	  +14.46		
 80	Northern Iowa		66.77	   +6.93		
104	Missouri State		61.47	  +12.23		
116	Youngstown State	59.22	  +21.06		
					
 61	Illinois State		71.30			
						Total Diff:	 -3.11
	Home Field		 3.29

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   39  North Dakota State
 2   61  Illinois State
 3   71  New Hampshire
 4   76  Villanova
 5   78  Eastern Washington
 6   80  Northern Iowa
 7   81  Jacksonville State
 8   82  South Dakota State
 9   85  McNeese State
10   88  Southern Illinois
11   90  Sam Houston State
12   91  Coastal Carolina
13  101  Harvard
14  102  SE Louisiana
15  104  Missouri State
16  105  Chattanooga
17  107  Richmond
18  109  Indiana State
19  110  Eastern Kentucky
20  115  Montana
21  116  Youngstown State
22  118  Montana State
23  121  Fordham
24  129  Samford
25  130  Bethune-Cookman

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	63.09
2.  Colonial	50.24
3.  Southern	50.05
4.  Southland	49.85
5.  Ohio Valley 49.06

FBS Comparisons

#1  in the AAC, MAC, MWC, & Sun Belt
#2  in C-USA
#5  in the Big Ten
#6  in the ACC
#7  in the Big 12
#9  in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

1.  AAC		63.82
2.  MWC		63.19
3.  MVFC	63.09
4.  C-USA	60.67
5.  MAC		56.42
6.  SBC		54.43
7.  CAA 	50.24
8.  Socon 	50.05
9.  SLC		49.85
10. OVC		49.06

[MNLonghorn10]

just keep doubling the predictor every week, and NDSU will be back in the top 25. again.