Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (4.06 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Western Illinois 96.5% (+0.1% from last week)
Southern Illinois 91.0% (+2.4%)
Indiana State 97.3% (-1.0%)
South Dakota 90.6% (+0.2%)
South Dakota State 79.3% (-1.0%)
Northern Iowa 66.5% (-6.0%)
Missouri State 77.5% (-5.2%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (-1.1%)

12-0 29.3% (-1.7% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+1.0%)
10-2 22.4% (+0.9%)
9-3 6.2% (=0.0%)
8-4 1.0% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.004%
5-7 0.0001%
4-8 0.000001%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[THEsocalledfan]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (4.06 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Western Illinois 96.5% (+0.1% from last week)
Southern Illinois 91.0% (+2.4%)
Indiana State 97.3% (-1.0%)
South Dakota 90.6% (+0.2%)
South Dakota State 79.3% (-1.0%)
Northern Iowa 66.5% (-6.0%)
Missouri State 77.5% (-5.2%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (-1.1%)

12-0 29.3% (-1.7% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+1.0%)
10-2 22.4% (+0.9%)
9-3 6.2% (=0.0%)
8-4 1.0% (-0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.004%
5-7 0.0001%
4-8 0.000001%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

Uni game scares me.....

[thebootfitter]

Uni game scares me.....

They all make me a little bit nervous. Well... except maybe the Leathernecks.

I'd be very happy to get out of the Valley with only two losses. Anything better than that is a bonus for this year in my book.

[BisonNation11]

Uni game scares me.....

IF they are healthy, they make me nervous. Anything less than 100% for them and I think we take the game in a close one.

[Strongman]

They all make me a little bit nervous. Well... except maybe the Leathernecks.

I'd be very happy to get out of the Valley with only two losses. Anything better than that is a bonus for this year in my book.

We just defeated 2/4 of our toughest opponents of the year. You make it sound like there are 8 NDSUs in the MVC. The fact is there is ONE GREAT TEAM, 3 good teams, a few average teams, and a few cupcakes.

QUAD. Take it to the bank.

[westnodak93bison]

Uni game scares me.....

Why? There o-line is not exactly dominant. Read their forum. Pretty much a one man show. I like our chances especially with Coach K getting his first crack at Mr Personality

[thebootfitter]

We just defeated 2/4 of our toughest opponents of the year. You make it sound like there are 8 NDSUs in the MVC. The fact is there is ONE GREAT TEAM, 3 good teams, a few average teams, and a few cupcakes.

QUAD. Take it to the bank.

Don't get me wrong. It is a near certainty that we'll make the playoffs. And when we make the playoffs, I wouldn't bet against NDSU in any match up in any venue.

But I think that the SIU, SDSU, and UNI games will all be hard fought and could go either way. I think that Misery State, both ISUs, and Youngstown can get up for a game against the Bison and can cause some trouble if we are not firing on all cylinders.

It's great that you're confident, but there is a lot of season left to play. I will need to see a few weeks of Valley play before I can reach the same level of confidence as I had last year.

[bisonaudit]

In a 12 game season if a team were favored by 13 1/2 in every game the most likely result is a 10-2 season.

The ball isn't round.

The other guys are on scholarship too.

Any given Saturday.

[westnodak93bison]

In a 12 game season if a team were favored by 13 1/2 in every game the most likely result is a 10-2 season.

The ball isn't round.

The other guys are on scholarship too.

Any given Saturday.

What would the likely result be if the ball were round?

[bisonaudit]

What would the likely result be if the ball were round?

344Johnson surrounded by a dozen of his closest friends in an otherwise empty soccer facility.