Sagarin says

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin picked 7 of the 8 games correctly, although the score differential predictions were all over the place. The only incorrect win/loss prediction was actually our play-in game. Sag predicted SC State to win instead of Furman. Here were the rounded predictions versus the actual results:

Furman/SC State				Beth-Cook/Coastal C
Sagarin: SC State by 10			Sagarin: Coastal by 6
Actual: Furman by 10			Actual: Coastal by 24

Lafayette/UNH				SUU/SHSU
Sagarin: UNH by 14			Sagarin: SHSU by 17
Actual: UNH by 38			Actual: SHSU by 31

SDSU/NAU				Samford/Jax St
Sagarin: SDSU by 6			Sagarin: Jax St by 7
Actual: SDSU by 19			Actual: Jax St by 41

Sac Heart/Fordham			Tenn St/Butler
Sagarin: Fordham by 9			Sagarin: Tenn St by 12
Actual: Fordham by 10			Actual: Tenn St by 31

Here are the round 2 game predictions. Sag predicts four likely blowouts and four close games. Seeded teams favored to win in all cases even without bye week figured in, but the numbers are real close. I expect at least two seeds to fall on Saturday.

1 NDSU		80.87  (31.64)
  Furman	52.83
		
8 Montana	63.26  (5.93)
  Coastal C	60.93
		
5 Maine		59.92  (1.40)
  UNH		62.12
		
4 SELA		68.92  (10.83)
  SHSU		61.69
		
3 EWU		63.26  (1.41)
  SDSU		65.45
		
6 McNeese	61.32  (3.15)
  Jax St	61.77
		
7 Towson	66.45  (15.35)
  Fordham	54.70
		
2 EIU		77.75  (21.59)
  Tenn St	59.76

[MNLonghorn10]

Interesting how all EWU HAD a top 30 win in their pocket, and less losses than SDSU but would still be dogs on a neutral field.

[SDbison]

Interesting how all EWU HAD a top 30 win in their pocket, and less losses than SDSU but would still be dogs on a neutral field.

So does EWU get 6 points rather than 3 for their fugly red field and incompetent booth replay guy?
Since I don't think EWU is that good (just like all of the Big Fluffy Conference) and will not go any further in playoffs after this game I will be pulling for SDSU to win. Same goes for SDSU though as I don't think they are good enough to win any more playoff games after this one.

[Tatanka]

Sagarin Predictor Top-7 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	59.71
2.  Colonial	56.05
3.  Ohio Valley 53.58
4.  Southland	52.67
5.  Southern	48.44
6.  Ivy League	48.13
7.  Big Sky	47.15

LOL @ Big Fluffy Sky

[Hammerhead]

EWU's win over OSU has lost some of it's luster with the Beavers' losing streak at the end of the year.

Interesting how all EWU HAD a top 30 win in their pocket, and less losses than SDSU but would still be dogs on a neutral field.

[TAILG8R]

LOL @ Big Fluffy Sky

And they got how many teams in the playoffs? Seems legit.

[Hammersmith]

And they got how many teams in the playoffs? Seems legit.

I won't be surprised if they go 0-4 this playoff.

[bisonaudit]

Team................... Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
#1 North Dakota State 99.4% 94.0% 84.7% 55.9%
Furman ---------------- 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
#8 Montana ---------- 73.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Coastal Carolina ------ 26.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

#5 Maine ------------ 61.7% 14.6% 0.9% 0.2%
New Hampshire ------- 38.3% 10.9% 0.8% 0.2%
#4 SE Louisiana ----- 84.0% 67.8% 11.1% 3.8%
Sam Houston State ----16.0% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1%

#3 Eastern Washington - 61.7% 40.5% 6.5% 0.9%
South Dakota State --- 38.3% 19.6% 3.2% 0.6%
#6 McNeese State ---- 66.5% 26.3% 3.5% 0.4%
Jacksonville State ----- 33.5% 13.7% 1.5% 0.2%

#7 Towson ----------- 90.7% 14.5% 8.2% 1.6%
Fordham --------------- 9.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
#2 Eastern Illinois ---- 96.2% 84.2% 76.7% 35.7%
Tennessee State ------- 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%

[Mayville Bison]

Team................... Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
#1 North Dakota State 99.4% 94.0% 84.7% 55.9%
Furman ---------------- 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
#8 Montana ---------- 73.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Coastal Carolina ------ 26.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

#5 Maine ------------ 61.7% 14.6% 0.9% 0.2%
New Hampshire ------- 38.3% 10.9% 0.8% 0.2%
#4 SE Louisiana ----- 84.0% 67.8% 11.1% 3.8%
Sam Houston State ----16.0% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1%

#3 Eastern Washington - 61.7% 40.5% 6.5% 0.9%
South Dakota State --- 38.3% 19.6% 3.2% 0.6%
#6 McNeese State ---- 66.5% 26.3% 3.5% 0.4%
Jacksonville State ----- 33.5% 13.7% 1.5% 0.2%
#7 Towson ----------- 90.7% 14.5% 8.2% 1.6%
Fordham --------------- 9.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
#2 Eastern Illinois ---- 96.2% 84.2% 76.7% 35.7%
Tennessee State ------- 3.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%

Wonder what SDSU bid - could they possibly have a quarterfinals home game???

[BisonNeil]

Sagarin picked 7 of the 8 games correctly, although the score differential predictions were all over the place. The only incorrect win/loss prediction was actually our play-in game. Sag predicted SC State to win instead of Furman. Here were the rounded predictions versus the actual results:

Furman/SC State				Beth-Cook/Coastal C
Sagarin: SC State by 10			Sagarin: Coastal by 6
Actual: Furman by 10			Actual: Coastal by 24

Lafayette/UNH				SUU/SHSU
Sagarin: UNH by 14			Sagarin: SHSU by 17
Actual: UNH by 38			Actual: SHSU by 31

SDSU/NAU				Samford/Jax St
Sagarin: SDSU by 6			Sagarin: Jax St by 7
Actual: SDSU by 19			Actual: Jax St by 41

Sac Heart/Fordham			Tenn St/Butler
Sagarin: Fordham by 9			Sagarin: Tenn St by 12
Actual: Fordham by 10			Actual: Tenn St by 31

Here are the round 2 game predictions. Sag predicts four likely blowouts and four close games. Seeded teams favored to win in all cases even without bye week figured in, but the numbers are real close. I expect at least two seeds to fall on Saturday.

1 NDSU		80.87  (31.64)
  Furman	52.83
		
8 Montana	63.26  (5.93)
  Coastal C	60.93
		
5 Maine		59.92  (1.40)
  UNH		62.12
		
4 SELA		68.92  (10.83)
  SHSU		61.69
		
3 EWU		63.26  (1.41)
  SDSU		65.45
		
6 McNeese	61.32  (3.15)
  Jax St	61.77
		
7 Towson	66.45  (15.35)
  Fordham	54.70
		
2 EIU		77.75  (21.59)
  Tenn St	59.76

A lot of people on BV think UNH will beat Maine again, but I don't. NH played at home when they beat Maine. Maine has not lost at home this year. Tough to beat a team twice in the same season in college football.

I also have a very strong gut feeling that Sam Houston will beat SELA for the same reason, tough to beat the same team twice. Plus, Bell is back and Flanders is relatively healthy. If the Bison can take care of the Paladins and the Griz the next two weeks, I fully expect to see Sammy one more time before this whole three-peat adventure is over.

BTW, don't know if this has been posted yet, but the Bison got a vote in the AP. Gophers got two. S#!t.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...ll-ap/2013/15/