Sagarin says

[gumby013]

The difference for NDSU decreased by like 14 points. I don't think it's moved that much all year. Maybe the whole model snapped to a new equilibrium?

If I'm remembering right, the home field figure was less than 4 points last week. I think something did change.

[westnodak93bison]

Look at the list of teams below us! Some big names. At least 11 teams that have won a national title.

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[Hammersmith]

A couple thoughts:
1) Wow
2) LOL@BigSky
3) The entire MVFC, with the exception of Indiana State, would be above average in the Big Sky.
4) UNI is still getting love from beating Iowa State and playing NDSU tough?

4b) Kicking the crap out of McNeese State versus the prediction (nearly 30 points)

The only terrible game for UNI was South Dakota(-24). Two bad games in SIU(-13) and ISUr(-11). Good games were NDSU(+19) and Iowa State(+11). Fantastic game was McNeese(+29). All the rest were within 5 points of the prediction.

[Hammersmith]

If I'm remembering right, the home field figure was less than 4 points last week. I think something did change.

3.59 last week; 4.11 this week.

[bisonaudit]

That systems like a crazy swing in home field, too. USD/Mont. is probably a partial explanation for what happened to the Big Sky but it seems like this isn't the first late season reshuffle we've seen in the ratings in recent years either.

[RadioBison]

If I'm remembering right, the home field figure was less than 4 points last week. I think something did change.

I think that home field advantage is tricky, because the results are skewed so much over the first few weeks. I wonder if the model might have just switched to using data from only this year.

[Tatanka]

Speaking of home field, Delaware State vs un_ at Delaware State would be pretty much a dead heat.

[westnodak93bison]

Had a great time this morning razzing my friend who is a huge Sooner fan.

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[thebootfitter]

I probably won't continue to post these stats here anymore beyond today, since they don't really have any direct relevance to the Bison, except to help illustrate whether Sagarin is a reliable predictor of outcomes for future games. But if anyone is interested in more, send me a PM. I plan to continue this analysis through the end of the season and see if any reasonable conclusions can be drawn then.

Overall, the average predicted vs actual point differential is quite small this week (only 0.3 points), but the variance is up a bit with a standard deviation of 16. Sagarin correctly predicted the winner 76% of the time.

Out of 108 games between DI opponents:
--> Average difference between Sagarin's predicted point differential and the actual point differential is only 0.3 points (1.3 points last week), with a standard deviation of 16 points (15 last week).
--> (75.9%) 82 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner (77% last week)
--> (15.7%) 17 games were within 2 points of Sagarin's predictions in either direction (7.5% last week)
--> (12.0%) 13 games were between 2 & 5 points off Sagarin's predictions (15.1% last week)
--> (21.3%) 23 games were between 5 & 10 points off Sagarin's predictions (24.5% last week)
--> (15.7%) 17 games were between 10 & 15 points off Sagarin's predictions (23.6% last week)
--> (35.2%) 38 games were greater than 15 points off Sagarin's predictions (29.2% last week)

[thebootfitter]

Massey lists us at #32 in all of DI currently. Interestingly, Fresno St. (who is also 9-0) is at #40, with very slightly tougher schedule strength (Fresno's SoS is 106th vs ours of 110th).