Sagarin says

[coulanon]

Whaaaaaaa....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...ly-removes-mov

Anyone else notice he forgot about an FCS team?

[gumby013]

So...we are #12 in Pure ELO.

[Hammersmith]

Anyway, here are this week's results and next week's predictions. Southland and Big Sky swap spots while being in a virtual tie for 3/4. SDSU drops out of the top-25 while UNI barely stays in the top-5. YSU cracks the top-10(they were just outside last week).

Sagarin's Week 9 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 44	North Dakota State	76.66					
 41	Kansas State		78.06	   -5.24      3.00	 8.24		
 NA	Ferris State		   NA	      NA     46.00	   NA		
219	Delaware State		35.11	   45.39     51.00	 5.61
126	South Dakota State	57.97	   14.85     20.00	 5.15		
 80	Northern Iowa		66.97	   13.53      1.00     -12.53		
136	Missouri State		56.63	   23.87     15.00	-8.87		
105	Southern Illinois	61.50	   11.32     21.00	 9.68		
171	Indiana State		47.17	   25.65				
158	Illinois State		51.54	   28.96				
 98	Youngstown State	63.06	    9.76				
160	South Dakota		51.22	   29.28				
							
167	Western Illinois	48.18					
						Total Diff:	 7.28
	Home			 3.84

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 1   44  North Dakota State
 2   62  Eastern Illinois
 3   78  Towson
 4   79  Villanova
 5   80  Northern Iowa
 6   84  Montana
 7   88  Eastern Washington
 8   89  McNeese State
 9   92  Montana State
10   98  Youngstown State
11  104  SE Louisiana
12  105  Southern Illinois
13  106  William & Mary
14  109  Maine
15  110  Georgia Southern
16  111  Coastal Carolina
17  112  Sam Houston State
18  113  Samford
19  115  Chattanooga
20  116  Old Dominion
21  117  New Hampshire
22  118  Tennessee State
23  121  Stony Brook
24  122  Cal Poly
25  123  Fordham

Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	57.40
2.  Colonial	56.06
3.  Big Sky	51.52
4.  Southland	51.49
5.  Ohio Valley 50.39
6.  Southern	49.79

[Hammersmith]

So...we are #12 in Pure ELO.

Yep, but that only makes us the fourth best team in FCS according to that computation.

4 Bethune-Cookman
7 Fordham
10 Costal Carolina
12 North Dakota State
21 Lehigh
22 Tennessee State
24 Eastern Illinois

Methinks there's something fishy with that formula.

[oldmantutters]

Yep, but that only makes us the fourth best team in FCS according to that computation.

4 Bethune-Cookman
7 Fordham
10 Costal Carolina
12 North Dakota State
21 Lehigh
22 Tennessee State
24 Eastern Illinois

Methinks there's something fishy with that formula.

So what you are saying is that the BCS will LOVE this formula.

[thebootfitter]

Methinks there's something fishy with that formula.

Not necessarily anything "fishy." It's just not a very good indication of the relative strength of teams.

[MNLonghorn10]

Never even heard of the pure elo

Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk

[gumby013]

No wonder Sagarin waited until the day the first BCS rankings are released to unveil this gem.

[bisonaudit]

Is the Whaaaaaa.... because you don't know why I'm referencing you(you said something last night in a different thread about wondering what Sag would look like this morning due to some of the weird wins and losses yesterday), or because the fourth set of numbers came out of nowhere?)

Because numbers from nowhere.

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.84 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:


Ind St 97.0% (+3.3 percentage points from last week)
Ill St 99.0% (-0.5)
YSU 76.5% (+4.6)
USD 98.4% (-0.5)



11-0 72.3% (+25.8)
10-1 26.3% (-15.0)
9-2 1.3% (-10.2)
8-3 0.02% (-0.7)
7-4 0.0001%


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.