Sagarin says

[THEsocalledfan]

I can never remember how this thing works; what does it predict for SDSU with their home field?

[KC Bison]

There's an 84 percent chance of beating N. Iowa but only a 68 percent chance of beating S. Illinois. This seems a little whacked but maybe playing on the road or at home plays into this?

[thebootfitter]

Something looks wrong about the rating and results so far. If NDSU is +12.32 and +10.85, shouldn't they just have a higher rating?

I don't disagree, but early in the season while still incorporating some data from last year, the stats can produce odd results. Give it a few more weeks and all should fall into place. (And hope that K-State starts winning again.)

[bisonaudit]

There's an 84 percent chance of beating N. Iowa but only a 68 percent chance of beating S. Illinois. This seems a little whacked but maybe playing on the road or at home plays into this?

The home field advantage has been over 5 points a game so far this season. It should normalize down to around 3 over time. That's a big part of this. Also these are last weeks numbers. After the games of 9/21, the computer thinks UNI is 3 points better than they were a week ago and it evaluates S. Ill. as a half a point worse than the week before.

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 72.97 would rank:

5th in the American Athletic (-1 from last week)
9th in the ACC (-2)
10th in the Big Ten (-1)
8th in the Big 12 (=)
2nd in Conference USA (-1)
1st in the MAC (=)
3rd in the MWC (=)
11th in the PAC 12 (-1)
14th in the SEC (-1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=)

[bisonaudit]

CUSA 61.43 (-0.14 from last week)
MAC 60.26 (-0.69)
MVFC 58.85 (-1.17)
Sn Blt 57.88 (-2.77)

[MNLonghorn10]

Dsu and Ferris don't help at all.

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (look no further than the 5.23 home field number for evidence its early) w/ 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

SDSU 61.3% (+2.6 percentage points from last week)
UNI 74.4% (-9.9)
Mo St 97.0% (-1.0)
S Ill 65.3% (-3.6)
Ind St 76.5% (-1.9)
Ill St 97.2% (+1.6)
YSU 72.0% (-5.9)
USD 98.8% (-0.1)

11-0 15.3% (-3.9)
10-1 34.7% (-3.4)
9-2 31.5% (+2.3)
8-3 14.5% (+3.4)
7-4 3.5% (+1.3)
6-5 0.4% (+0.2)
5-6 0.02%
4-7 0.0004%
3-8 0.000002%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86.

[bisonaudit]

I can never remember how this thing works; what does it predict for SDSU with their home field?

Hammersmith does all the work for you, just check out his predict column. NDSU is 3.88 point favorite.

[THEsocalledfan]

Hammersmith does all the work for you, just check out his predict column. NDSU is 3.88 point favorite.

I get it, again. I have to have this thing explained to me on a yearly basis.