Sagarin says

[Hammersmith]

Now for silliness. According to Sag, NDSU would now be at the bottom of the Big 12(only above Kansas), middle of the Pac-12, SEC & Big Ten, fourth-best in the ACC, second-best in the Big East(Cincy) & Mountain West(Boise St), and the top team of C-USA, Sun Belt, WAC & MAC.

This and $3.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

[bisonaudit]

With NDSU's rating up nearly 4 points and with the ratings of our remaining opponents decreasing by nearly 5 points Sagarin's prediction of the rest of the regular season looks like this. Calculations give USD full credit for home field and I'll St credit for coming off a bye.

Ind St 92.0%
USD 94.7%
S Ill 95.8%
Mo St 97.7%
SDSU 88.8%
Ill St 76.1%

11-0 75.2%
10-1 22.3%
9-2 2.4%
8-3 0.1%
7-4 0.003%
6-5 0.00004%
5-6 0.0000002%

[NDSU92]

Don't know the first thing about computer rankings. But with being the only FCS school ranked anywhere near us, what are the chances we actually drop spots after later weeks in the season because of SOS?

[Hammersmith]

Don't know the first thing about computer rankings. But with being the only FCS school ranked anywhere near us, what are the chances we actually drop spots after later weeks in the season because of SOS?

A lot. Unless we completely blow everyone out from here on, I'd expect a drop into the high 40s by the end of the season. But that's just guessing.

[bisonaudit]

Don't know the first thing about computer rankings. But with being the only FCS school ranked anywhere near us, what are the chances we actually drop spots after later weeks in the season because of SOS?

It's hard to say definitively because the model completely reevaluates the relationships between all the teams each time it gets more data but in general if you win by the margin that the model projects you wouldn't expect much change, if you win by less that would put downward pressure, win by more upward pressure.

[Hammersmith]

I hope you'll forgive me that I chose to "forget" to do this this morning. We fall, but ISUb doesn't rise. Strange.

Sagarin's predictions for week 7:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 51	North Dakota State	74.67			
228	Robert Morris		33.09     +44.37     +52.00     + 7.63
148	Colorado State		53.53	  +18.35     +15.00	- 3.35
234	Prairie View A&M	29.40	  +48.06     +59.00	+10.94
 95	Northern Iowa		63.43	  + 8.45     +12.00	+ 3.55
118	Youngstown State	60.12	  +17.34     +41.00	+23.66
120	Indiana State		59.72	  +17.74     - 3.00	-20.74
168	South Dakota		49.57	  +25.10		
141	Southern Illinois	54.82	  +22.64		
180	Missouri State		46.22	  +25.66		
110	South Dakota State	60.91	  +16.55		
125	Illinois State		58.25	  +13.63		
					
191	Western Illinois	43.89			
					
	Home			 2.79

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

 51  North Dakota State
 78  Georgia Southern
 82  Eastern Washington
 86  Harvard
 89  Cal Poly
 95  Northern Iowa
 96  Sam Houston State
 98  Wofford
105  James Madison
108  Villanova

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	57.30
2.  Colonial	56.53
3.  Southern	55.46
4.  Big Sky	54.50

[stevdock]

Does losing to 2 Big Ten teams really screw up Sagarin or what??

As far as ranking goes outside of UNI it all depends on how good you thought each of the teams were before the games this weekend. If you saw NDSU head and shoulders above everyone then this makes sense. If you saw us one spot ahead of GSU and 2 above EWU, then with their wins this weekend then we take a tumble.

I am curious how Harvard is staying at the top or really how they got there in the first place?? Outside of beating everyone on their schedule of course.

[Hammerhead]

The Ivies don't play enough games outside of their conference to be "well-connected" and fit the Sagarin model.

[bisonaudit]

ISUb improved 2.54 while we fell 3.84. All our prior opponents lost or were idle and all of them but Robert Morris saw their Sagarin number decrease. All of our remaining opponents except USD won and saw their Sagarin number improve.

10-1 61.5%
9-2 32.4%
8-3 5.6%
7-4 0.4%
6-5 0.01%
5-6 0.0002%

[bisonaudit]

USD 95.0%
S Ill 95.2%
Mo St 97.0%
SDSU 88.9%
Ill St 78.9%