Sagarin says

[Hammersmith]

Let the number crunching begin anew.

2012 Week 3

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	Diff
 53	North Dakota State	73.73			
236	Robert Morris		30.03     +46.70     +52.00     +5.30
134	Colorado State		55.13	  +15.60     +15.00     +0.60
240	Prairie View A&M	25.46	  +51.27		
 77	Northern Iowa		68.36	   +2.37		
 86	Youngstown State	66.65	  +10.08		
136	Indiana State		54.39	  +22.34		
160	South Dakota		50.64	  +23.09		
192	Southern Illinois	43.31	  +33.42		
141	Missouri State		53.77	  +16.96		
142	South Dakota State	53.70	  +23.03		
 91	Illinois State		64.23	   +6.50		
					
178	Western Illinois	46.00

Conferences

1. MVFC       57.01
2. Southern   53.78
3. Big Sky    53.30
4. CAA        52.14

[CaBisonFan]

This is where we belong...in the top 40. There's a very visible different between us and the rest of the FCS field.

Same with the core of the FBS field. Just the very elite are above us. For sure, we can be upset.

The depth of athletes and the system have really made an impact.

[CaBisonFan]

Our defense would keep us in the game with anyone...and we know the game plan when we have the lead and the ball.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's predictions for week 4:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	Diff
 59	North Dakota State	72.33			
228	Robert Morris		32.38     +43.36     +52.00     +8.64
131	Colorado State		55.76	  +13.16     +15.00     +1.84
239	Prairie View A&M	27.50	  +48.24		
 83	Northern Iowa		66.96	  + 1.96		
 90	Youngstown State	64.72	  +11.02		
144	Indiana State		53.26	  +22.48		
145	South Dakota		52.92	  +19.41		
158	Southern Illinois	50.54	  +25.20		
181	Missouri State		46.91	  +22.01		
136	South Dakota State	55.08	  +20.66		
114	Illinois State		60.32	  + 8.60		
					
184	Western Illinois	45.26			

	Home			 3.41

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-10

 59  North Dakota State
 70  Georgia Southern
 83  Northern Iowa
 85  Eastern Washington
 90  Youngstown State
 91  James Madison
 98  Cal Poly
100  Wofford
101  Old Dominion
102  Montana

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	56.19
2.  Colonial	55.19
3.  Southern	54.42
4.  Big Sky	53.40

[HandoEX]

Sagarin confuses me. Why is GSU so high?

[EndZoneQB]

Sagarin confuses me. Why is GSU so high?

Where is The Citadel after their smoking of App State and the GSU win?

[tjbison]

Sagarin confuses me. Why is GSU so high?

Where is The Citadel after their smoking of App State and the GSU win?

I was thinking th same, Massey is worse in this weeks rankings

[Hammersmith]

Where is The Citadel after their smoking of App State and the GSU win?

The Citadel is setting at 111 in the Predictor ranking. That puts them around 15th in FCS.

The problem with all computer rankings is data. This early in the season, there isn't enough data from the current season to do anything close to an accurate prediction. So Sagarin uses data from last season. Each week, the data from last season is used less and less until there's enough collected data from the current season to get rid of it altogether. That will come in another week or three. Until then, GSU is getting a significant bump from their solid performance last year. And The Citadel started in a bit of a hole for the opposite reason. It will all work out in time.

The Bison kick ass in both time periods, of course.

[Tatanka]

The Citadel is setting at 111 in the Predictor ranking. That puts them around 15th in FCS.

The problem with all computer rankings is data. This early in the season, there isn't enough data from the current season to do anything close to an accurate prediction. So Sagarin uses data from last season. Each week, the data from last season is used less and less until there's enough collected data from the current season to get rid of it altogether. That will come in another week or three. Until then, GSU is getting a significant bump from their solid performance last year. And The Citadel started in a bit of a hole for the opposite reason. It will all work out in time.

The Bison kick ass in both time periods, of course.

another hole in the sagarins is the omission of lower-division teams in the ratings. Since the ratings only take into account division I games, those teams playing, say, 1-10 transitioning Naia schools enjoy an artificially inflated ranking and strength of schedule since those lower tier opponents don't pull down the ranking like playing a lower tier d I does.

[BisonNeil]

UNI is sitting there at #3 in FCS yet they have no DI wins. Not sure I would want to be in their shoes having to take 7 of 8 MVFC wins to make the post-season.