Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin predicts NDSU to win somewhere between 53% and 62% of the time v. SHSU depdending on how much home field advantage you award SHSU.

If you give SHSU the full 3.01 points the line would be NDSU -1, if you call it a neutral field it's NDSU -4.

Basically, Sagarin is saying think about this in the same way you were thinking about UNI leading up to that contest, not in terms of style of course (his model is totally ignorant of those sorts of considerations) just simply in terms of the relative quality of the opponent, and is predicting a very tough contest.

[Professor Chaos]

The Bison finished the season #37 in the Saragin rankings with a Predictor rating of 75.66.

Colorado State finished the season #142 with a Predictor rating of 55.32.

Give the Rams 3 points for the homefield and that would make the Bison 17 point favorites. That's an eye opening number for an FCS/FBS matchup.

[Twentysix]

The Bison finished the season #37 in the Saragin rankings with a Predictor rating of 75.66.

Colorado State finished the season #142 with a Predictor rating of 55.32.

Give the Rams 3 points for the homefield and that would make the Bison 17 point favorites. That's an eye opening number for an FCS/FBS matchup.

You have to give the Rams the -10 points for a new coach making NDSU a 4 touchdown favorite

[Hammersmith]

Sweet. Sagarin now includes separate home advantages for each set of ratings. Here are the final results of the season. In the conference race, the Valley ended with a pretty clear advantage over the other power conferences.

Final

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
44  North Dakota State	75.66  
71  Sam Houston State	69.31  	+ 6.35  +11.00   +4.65
79  Northern Iowa	66.98  	+11.47  + 8.00	 -3.47
82  Georgia Southern	66.13  	+12.32  +28.00  +15.68
91  Minnesota		63.92  	+ 8.95  +13.00   +4.05
99  Illinois State	62.83  	+15.62  +10.00   -5.62
107 Youngstown State	61.19  	+17.26  - 3.00  -20.26
118 Lehigh		59.03  	+19.42  +24.00   +4.58
120 James Madison	58.24  	+20.21  +12.00   -8.21
123 Indiana State	58.07  	+14.80  + 9.00   -5.80
147 Southern Illinois	53.90  	+18.97  + 6.00  -12.97
150 South Dakota State	52.68  	+20.19  +24.00	 +3.81
161 Missouri State	49.95  	+28.50  +30.00	 +1.50
191 Lafayette		43.49  	+34.96  +36.00   +1.04
192 Western Illinois	43.12  	+29.75  +16.00  -13.75
230 Saint Francis-Pa	30.37  	+48.08  +53.00   +4.92

Week 16

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
46  North Dakota State	74.33  
67  Sam Houston State	70.23  + 4.10
81  Northern Iowa	67.06  +10.25  + 8.00	-2.25
83  Georgia Southern	65.61  +11.70  +28.00  +16.30
88  Minnesota		64.41  + 6.94  +13.00   +6.06
97  Illinois State	62.66  +14.65  +10.00   -4.64
109 Youngstown State	61.05  +16.26  - 3.00  -19.26
118 Lehigh		59.04  +18.27  +24.00   +5.73
120 James Madison	58.33  +18.98  +12.00   -6.98
122 Indiana State	58.07  +13.28  + 9.00   -4.28
148 Southern Illinois	53.61  +17.74  + 6.00  -11.74
151 South Dakota State	52.52  +18.83  +24.00	+5.17
163 Missouri State	49.57  +27.74  +30.00	+2.26
190 Lafayette		43.51  +33.80  +36.00   +2.20
192 Western Illinois	42.98  +28.37  +16.00  -12.37
231 Saint Francis-Pa	30.36  +46.95  +53.00   +6.05

Conferences

Final
1. GWC	58.24
2. MVFC	58.00
3. SoCn	55.58
4. BSC	55.39
5. CAA	53.68
6. SLC  47.04

Week 16
1. GWC	58.34
2. MVFC	57.80
3. BSC	55.61
4. SoCn	55.34
5. CAA	53.86
6. SLC  47.30

[Hammersmith]

The following means absolutely nothing, but I figured why not. This is a preview of next year's schedule using the final numbers from this year. Again, it means nothing.

			rate   predict
44   North Dakota State	75.66	
79   Northern Iowa	66.98	+ 5.89
99   Illinois State	62.83	+10.04
107  Youngstown State	61.19	+17.26
123  Indiana State	58.07	+20.38
129  South Dakota	57.01   +15.86
140  Colorado State	55.44	+17.43
147  Southern Illinois	53.90	+24.55
150  South Dakota State	52.68	+25.77
161  Missouri State	49.95	+22.92
227  Robert Morris	31.20	+47.25

[MNLonghorn10]

sooo 11-0?

[aces1180]

sooo 15-0?

Fixed it for you...

[westnodak93bison]

The following means absolutely nothing, but I figured why not. This is a preview of next year's schedule using the final numbers from this year. Again, it means nothing.

			rate   predict
44   North Dakota State	75.66	
79   Northern Iowa	66.98	+ 5.89
99   Illinois State	62.83	+10.04
107  Youngstown State	61.19	+17.26
123  Indiana State	58.07	+20.38
129  South Dakota	57.01   +15.86
140  Colorado State	55.44	+17.43
147  Southern Illinois	53.90	+24.55
150  South Dakota State	52.68	+25.77
161  Missouri State	49.95	+22.92
227  Robert Morris	31.20	+47.25

So where are your hypothetical playoff matchups?

[Jay]

Do we have any idea of who the 11th game may be against?

[McBison]

Thank you Hammer and Audit for the number crunching...one of my fav threads this season