Sagarin says

[TateMosersneighbor]

Massey's simulation deal has us winning 5 out of 7 games versus GSU.

Pretty neat site, if we run into LSU...it won't be pretty according to the site.

[BlueBisonRock]

Massey's simulation deal has us winning 5 out of 7 games versus GSU.

Pretty neat site, if we run into LSU...it won't be pretty according to the site.

How about Bama?

[Hammersmith]

Massey's simulation deal has us winning 5 out of 7 games versus GSU.

Pretty neat site, if we run into LSU...it won't be pretty according to the site.

Yeah, I figured LSU would have big problems with the Herd.

[bisonaudit]

Semi-Finals:

SHSU 52.3%
Mont. 47.7%

NDSU 68.9%
GSU 31.1%

Sagarin makes the lines:
SHSU -1
NDSU -6.5

Championship:

NDSU 37.2%
Mont. 25.1%
SHSU 24.2%
GSU 13.5%

[fargocyclone]

Semi-Finals:

SHSU 52.3%
Mont. 47.7%

NDSU 68.9%
GSU 31.1%

Sagarin makes the lines:
SHSU -1
NDSU -6.5

Championship:

NDSU 37.2%
Mont. 25.1%
SHSU 24.2%
GSU 13.5%

Interesting that SHSU is more likely to win the semi game, but Montana is more likely to win the championship...

[coldspot]

Semi-Finals:

SHSU 52.3%
Mont. 47.7%

NDSU 68.9%
GSU 31.1%

Sagarin makes the lines:
SHSU -1
NDSU -6.5

Championship:

NDSU 37.2%
Mont. 25.1%
SHSU 24.2%
GSU 13.5%

that can't be right, it must have left out the "Bama effect"

[Twentysix]

Interesting that SHSU is more likely to win the semi game, but Montana is more likely to win the championship...

Away vs neutral.

Montana is probably a 2 point favorite before home field.

[Vitojr130]

No where did I see a mention about Alabama's chances or winning the FCS title.

[bisonaudit]

Away vs neutral.

Montana is probably a 2 point favorite before home field.

You are correct, sir.

[Hammersmith]

Big jump for a big win. In fact, it makes the rest of the season look worse in comparison. Every one of our former opponents got a boost this week except GSU, which took a big hit. I'm going ahead and calling the NC game a neutral field despite the proximity to SHSU. Sagarin is predicting a 4.1pt NDSU advantage.

Week 16

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
46  North Dakota State	74.33  
67  Sam Houston State	70.23  + 4.10
81  Northern Iowa	67.06  +10.25  + 8.00	-2.25
83  Georgia Southern	65.61  +11.70  +28.00  +16.30
88  Minnesota		64.41  + 6.94  +13.00   +6.06
97  Illinois State	62.66  +14.65  +10.00   -4.64
109 Youngstown State	61.05  +16.26  - 3.00  -19.26
118 Lehigh		59.04  +18.27  +24.00   +5.73
120 James Madison	58.33  +18.98  +12.00   -6.98
122 Indiana State	58.07  +13.28  + 9.00   -4.28
148 Southern Illinois	53.61  +17.74  + 6.00  -11.74
151 South Dakota State	52.52  +18.83  +24.00	+5.17
163 Missouri State	49.57  +27.74  +30.00	+2.26
190 Lafayette		43.51  +33.80  +36.00   +2.20
192 Western Illinois	42.98  +28.37  +16.00  -12.37
231 Saint Francis-Pa	30.36  +46.95  +53.00   +6.05

Week 15

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
57  North Dakota State	71.84  
59  Montana		71.65  + 0.19
71  Sam Houston State	69.41  + 2.43
76  Georgia Southern	68.22  + 6.65
82  Northern Iowa	66.53  + 8.34  + 8.00	-0.34
89  Minnesota		64.16  + 4.65  +13.00   +8.35
100 Illinois State	61.93  +12.94  +10.00   -2.94
114 Youngstown State	60.28  +14.59  - 3.00  -17.59
119 Lehigh		58.50  +16.37  +24.00   +7.11
122 James Madison	57.98  +16.89  +12.00   -4.89
125 Indiana State	57.31  +11.50  + 9.00   -2.50
149 Southern Illinois	52.90  +15.91  + 6.00   -9.91
153 South Dakota State	51.82  +16.99  +24.00	+7.01
163 Missouri State	48.88  +25.99  +30.00	+4.01
190 Lafayette		42.96  +31.91  +36.00   +4.09
195 Western Illinois	42.20  +26.61  +16.00  -10.61
234 Saint Francis-Pa	29.79  +45.08  +53.00   +7.92

Conferences

Week 16
1. GWC	58.34
2. MVFC	57.80
3. BSC	55.61
4. SoCn	55.34
5. CAA	53.86
6. SLC  47.30

Week 15
1. GWC	58.32
2. MVFC	57.02
3. SoCn	56.14
4. BSC	55.69
5. CAA	53.77