Sagarin says

[NDSUstudent]

Well maybe one day the Men's basketball team can get into the Maui Invite or a tournament in Cancun or Vegas.

[Hammersmith]

I haven't done the whole thing yet, but NDSU and UNI are in a virtual tie atop the FCS standings. We are tied in the main column that everybody else uses. UNI must be a tiny bit higher before the numbers were rounded off because they are listed first. NDSU is just slightly ahead of UNI in the predictor column that I like to use.

65  Northern Iowa        AA =  70.88    9   2   58.46( 129)    0   0  |    0   1  |   70.98   60 |   70.07   68
66  North Dakota State   AA =  70.88   10   1   54.07( 155)    0   0  |    0   0  |   70.87   62 |   70.18   67

[Hammersmith]

Here are the new numbers just as the selection show is starting. SLC conference strength references just to show how hard a road our number 1 seed had to hoe.

Week 12

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
67  North Dakota State	70.18
68  Northern Iowa	70.07  + 2.56  + 8.00	+5.44
98  Illinois State	62.54  +10.09  +10.00   -0.09
103 Minnesota		61.41  + 6.32  +13.00   +6.68
109 Youngstown State	60.52  +12.11  - 3.00  -15.11
121 Indiana State	57.82  + 9.91  + 9.00   -0.91
149 Southern Illinois	53.70  +14.03  + 6.00   -8.03
152 South Dakota State	52.60  +15.13  +24.00	+8.87
162 Missouri State	49.60  +23.03  +30.00	+6.97
193 Western Illinois	42.40  +25.33  +16.00   -9.33
194 Lafayette		42.37  +30.26  +36.00   +5.74
240 Saint Francis-Pa	28.60  +44.03  +53.00   +8.97

Week 11

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
59  North Dakota State	71.23
72  Northern Iowa	69.34  + 4.30  + 8.00	+3.70
98  Youngstown State	62.17  +11.47  - 3.00  -14.47
99  Illinois State	62.11  +11.53  +10.00   -1.53
101 Minnesota		61.83  + 6.99  +13.00   +6.01
116 Indiana State	59.28  + 9.54  + 9.00   -0.54
151 South Dakota State	52.22  +16.60  +24.00	+7.40
152 Southern Illinois	52.15  +16.67  + 6.00  -10.67
172 Missouri State	47.98  +25.66  +30.00	+4.34
190 Lafayette		43.84  +28.80  +36.00   +7.20
199 Western Illinois	41.56  +27.26  
237 Saint Francis-Pa	29.34  +44.30  +53.00   +8.70

Conferences

Week 12
1. GWC	58.61
2. SoCn	58.27
3. MVFC	57.73
4. BSC	55.75
5. CAA	51.82
~. SLC	42.25

Week 11
1. MVFC	57.76
2. SoCn	57.57
3. GWC	57.48
4. BSC	55.42
5. CAA	51.86

[bisonaudit]

14-1 29.1%
13-2 19.7%
12-2 30.6%
11-2 13.1%
10-2 7.5%

Sagarin likes our draw. If the playoff field were seeded based on their sagarin ratings NDSU would only have a 25.2% chance of winning the championship. The draw we actually face improves our chances by 15%.

[bisonaudit]

Update after round 1.

14-1 29.0% down 0.1%
13-2 19.8% up 0.1%
12-2 29.7% down 0.9%
11-2 13.4% up 0.3%
10-2 8.2% up 0.7%

Sagarin's assessment of JMU improved 0.76 points more than ours. Our possible quarter final opponents Lehigh and Towson also improved in Sagarin's assessment more than NDSU did, though not by as much as JMU. NDSU got a bigger bump than Ga. Southern or Appalachian St. our two most probably semi-final opponents which leaves Sagarin's assessment of our changes of reaching the finals unchanged.

There's a lot going on on the other side of the bracket, Sagarin's assessment of both Montana schools declined while Sam Houston St. got a bigger bump than any of the 1st round winners except Central Arkansas. But the net effect on NDSU's road to a title is negligible at this point.

14-1 29.1%
13-2 19.7%
12-2 30.6%
11-2 13.1%
10-2 7.5%

Sagarin likes our draw. If the playoff field were seeded based on their sagarin ratings NDSU would only have a 25.2% chance of winning the championship. The draw we actually face improves our chances by 15%.

[Hammersmith]

I knew I forgot to do something. Georgia Southern takes the top FCS spot in the predictor rankings, but we are still slightly favored due to home field. I've now included Towson and Lehigh in the rankings, as well as JMU & GSU. Short version for Saturday is that we are favored by about 16.

Week 13

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
61  Georgia Southern	70.78  + 2.03
65  North Dakota State	70.44
68  Northern Iowa	70.14  + 2.67  + 8.00	+5.33
92  Minnesota		64.01  + 4.06  +13.00   +8.94
100 Illinois State	62.44  +10.37  +10.00   -0.37
112 Youngstown State	60.65  +12.16  - 3.00  -15.16
117 Lehigh		59.55  +13.26
121 Indiana State	57.78  +10.29  + 9.00   -1.29
124 Towson		57.51  +15.30
130 James Madison	56.52  +16.29
149 Southern Illinois	53.42  +14.65  + 6.00   -8.65
152 South Dakota State	52.30  +15.77  +24.00	+8.23
164 Missouri State	49.43  +23.38  +30.00	+6.72
192 Lafayette		42.75  +30.06  +36.00   +5.94
194 Western Illinois	42.44  +25.63  +16.00   -9.63
237 Saint Francis-Pa	29.31  +43.50  +53.00   +9.50

Week 12

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
67  North Dakota State	70.18
68  Northern Iowa	70.07  + 2.56  + 8.00	+5.44
98  Illinois State	62.54  +10.09  +10.00   -0.09
103 Minnesota		61.41  + 6.32  +13.00   +6.68
109 Youngstown State	60.52  +12.11  - 3.00  -15.11
121 Indiana State	57.82  + 9.91  + 9.00   -0.91
149 Southern Illinois	53.70  +14.03  + 6.00   -8.03
152 South Dakota State	52.60  +15.13  +24.00	+8.87
162 Missouri State	49.60  +23.03  +30.00	+6.97
193 Western Illinois	42.40  +25.33  +16.00   -9.33
194 Lafayette		42.37  +30.26  +36.00   +5.74
240 Saint Francis-Pa	28.60  +44.03  +53.00   +8.97

Conferences

Week 13
1. GWC	58.51
2. SoCn	58.39
3. MVFC	57.66
4. BSC	55.54
5. CAA	52.37

Week 12
1. GWC	58.61
2. SoCn	58.27
3. MVFC	57.73
4. BSC	55.75
5. CAA	51.82

[westnodak93bison]

NDSU 70.44, James Madison 56.52. Plus 3 for Bison at home so Bison by 16.92

[missingnumber7]

How the heck is the GWC the top of the conference list?

[cbline]

How the heck is the GWC the top of the conference list?

They used a "bullet train" with "crazy speed" to zoom to the top, baby!!!

[Tatanka]

How the heck is the GWC the top of the conference list?

Sagarin only uses D-I games to calculate Strength of Schedule and ratings. So the multitude of sub-DI games played by teams in that conference weren't counted against them, leading to an inflated rating for each team and thus the conference.