2025 Sagarin Says

[tony]

I didn’t even known SIU was good this year.

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.

[Hammerhead]

The Sagarin top 25 after week 4. The drop in predictor points in the first 8 spots is nearly 3x the drop between #8 and #25.

38	North Dakota State   	AA	76.42	MISSOURI VALLEY
48	South Dakota State   	AA	74.55	MISSOURI VALLEY
73	Montana State        	AA	69.39	BIG SKY
80	Tarleton State       	AA	68.01	WESTERN ATHLETIC
81	Montana              	AA	66.23	BIG SKY
91	North Dakota         	AA	63.95	MISSOURI VALLEY
106	Southern Illinois    	AA	61.90	MISSOURI VALLEY
110	Harvard              	AA	60.71	IVY LEAGUE
114	UC Davis             	AA	60.16	BIG SKY
115	Austin Peay          	AA	59.80	WESTERN ATHLETIC
121	Idaho                	AA	58.94	BIG SKY
123	Northern Arizona     	AA	58.36	BIG SKY
124	Mercer               	AA	58.32	SOUTHERN
127	Tennessee Tech       	AA	58.05	BIG SOUTH/OVC
130	Youngstown State     	AA	57.76	MISSOURI VALLEY
133	Incarnate Word       	AA	57.23	SOUTHLAND
136	Yale                 	AA	56.80	IVY LEAGUE
138	West Georgia         	AA	56.51	WESTERN ATHLETIC
140	SE Louisiana         	AA	56.14	SOUTHLAND
141	Illinois State       	AA	56.10	MEAC
143	Sacramento State     	AA	55.97	BIG SKY
144	South Dakota         	AA	55.82	MISSOURI VALLEY
145	Stephen F. Austin    	AA	55.59	SOUTHLAND
146	Monmouth-NJ          	AA	55.28	COASTAL
147	Dartmouth            	AA	55.12	IVY LEAGUE

[TAILG8R]

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.

I said it two weeks ago, as of right now it looks like NDSU can waltz to another championship. Every other regular contender is considerably down from the last few years imo.


*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

[THEsocalledfan]

I said it two weeks ago, as of right now it looks like NDSU can waltz to another championship. Every other regular contender is considerably down from the last few years imo.


*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

For the record, I'm not sure we are going to know until the SDSU game. They are only a couple of points behind in Sagarin, which is going to make that game in Brookings close to a wash when the line is set. The model should be getting pretty strong at this point, so I'm curious if we will see that gap expand or not. I'm alway impressed with the accuracy of Sagarin, overall.

[Bisonator98]

With NIL and all, I'm not sure polls should really start until midseason - there should be a complete reset, if nothing else.

Also, almost every single person saying that USD wasn't a quality win are still talking like SDSU beating Sacramento was some sort of statement win. Maybe, if the statement was, "Sacramento State would be lucky to win 2 games in the MVFC."

NDSU put almost the same beating on USD back in 2023 - and that was USD's best-ever DI team playing one of NDSU's not-top-10 DI teams.

Yeah I don't get it either. Herder says SDSU has 2 ranked wins (Sac St and Montana St) and then drops Sac St out so are they a ranked win or not? And Montana St hasn't exactly beat anyone of substance either yet so why does that win against them carry so much weight at the moment?? Guess Mercyhurst is gonna be a powerhouse this year.....

[NI4NI]

For the record, I'm not sure we are going to know until the SDSU game. They are only a couple of points behind in Sagarin, which is going to make that game in Brookings close to a wash when the line is set. The model should be getting pretty strong at this point, so I'm curious if we will see that gap expand or not. I'm alway impressed with the accuracy of Sagarin, overall.

This is the camp I am in. I'm not breathing any sigh of relief until Oct 25. Also keeping an eye on Tarleton & MSU until proven otherwise.

[tony]

Missoula a little bigger than Grand Forks. I've been there 5 times, this opinion isn't coming from inexperience.

NDSU is moving on, noone should be want to be anchored to these Western schools, especially not <5000 undergraduate UM, unless you want to be FCS forever.

I agree with that - NDSU shouldn't be anchored to them, but if an FBS conferences wants the Montana schools along with NDSU then so be it. One thing is certain: There is no scenario where UND going FBS, with or without NDSU, makes sense to anybody with even the most tenuous grasp on reality. Tiny stadium, pathetic fan base, the TV ratings of a 3am informercial in the third biggest market in ND at an institution for whom football is an afterthought and would still be D2 if they so desperately didn't need NDSU to have the slightest relevance... that's the reality of UND football.

There is not a single metric in which the Montana schools don't blow UND out of the freaking water and into a low-earth orbit. I think everybody agrees with that.

[THEsocalledfan]

This is the camp I am in. I'm not breathing any sigh of relief until Oct 25. Also keeping an eye on Tarleton & MSU until proven otherwise.

I think the bigger gap with Tarleton and MSU is likely real, so I'm less worried about those teams. I suspect SDSU would have beaten MSU more soundly in Brookings. Granted, I watched the entire game and wasn't overly impressed with either team.

[NI4NI]

I agree with that - NDSU shouldn't be anchored to them, but if an FBS conferences wants the Montana schools along with NDSU then so be it. One thing is certain: There is no scenario where UND going FBS, with or without NDSU, makes sense to anybody with even the most tenuous grasp on reality. Tiny stadium, pathetic fan base, the TV ratings of a 3am informercial in the third biggest market in ND at an institution for whom football is an afterthought and would still be D2 if they so desperately didn't need NDSU to have the slightest relevance... that's the reality of UND football.

There is not a single metric in which the Montana schools don't blow UND out of the freaking water and into a low-earth orbit. I think everybody agrees with that.

Some truth in all that, but their on field product consistently proves to be better that many FBS programs.

[NI4NI]

I think the bigger gap with Tarleton and MSU is likely real, so I'm less worried about those teams. I suspect SDSU would have beaten MSU more soundly in Brookings. Granted, I watched the entire game and wasn't overly impressed with either team.

Agreed. I'm just saying I am 'cautiously optimistic'. Barring a shitting of the bed, we run the table all the way through Nashville.