
Originally Posted by
Hammersmith
That's not the reason, but it is linked to the coming demographic cliff. The B1G schools can see a period of dramatically reduced tuition revenue coming, so they're trying to form a super-conference based around maximum value rather than the standard things you usually base a conference on(like geography, historical rivals, competition on the field/court). Bringing in USC, UCLA and the greater LA market will add a lot of extra money into the athletic departments to help offset the coming losses in tuition. The same argument works for USC and UCLA. They see the cliff coming as well, and they can get a lot more money out of the B1G media deal than they ever could out of any future PAC-12 deal. For both sides, it's about long-term survival. It's also why the B1G stopped at just those two for now. Any additional new members need to be a net increase in per school revenue, and none of the next crop are slam dunks in that area(except maybe ND). Adding OR & WA would be revenue neutral at best. What does Stanford bring money-wise that USC and UCLA didn't already bring? The period we're in right now is the B1G accountants crunching all the numbers and doing projections for the next 10-20 years to see if any of the next batch are really worth it. I could see it going either way.
One of the big dangers is for mid-major and lower conferences to start emulating what the B1G and SEC are doing. Their models work for them because they are the 800lb gorillas in the room. Back in the period when the B1G added Rutgers and Maryland to bring in those markets, you could see several small conferences follow their lead and try to go after "markets". It worked for the B1G because they were the juggernaut that could force a cable company in a new market to add their channel. That doesn't work for a low-major conference when they add a third-rate program in a big market. The market responds by saying, "Who the hell cares?" I suspect what happens is that the big conferences can afford the millions required to gather, process, and analyze data to determine the best possible decision, while smaller conferences can't afford that and try to just follow on the coattails of what the big boys are doing hoping it also works for them. Very dangerous.