Re: 2019 Sagarin Says
NDSU regular season record:
12-0 93.7% +7.9%
11-1.. 6.3% -7.3%
10-2.. 0.1% -0.6%
9-3.... 0.00004%
opponent chance spread
v. W Ill.. 99.9% -43.5 -0.0% +2.0
v. USD.. 98.9% -31.5 +0.7% -3.0
@ S Ill.. 94.8% -22.0 +1.3% -1.5
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 3, UNI 6) -1 from last week (SDSU 2, UNI 7, Ill St 8)
Big Sky: 4 (Weber 4, Mont 5, Sac St 7, EWU 8) +1 from last week (Mont 4, Sac St 5, Weber 6, EWU)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 2) no change from last week (JMU 3)
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 5 (Mt St, UCD) changes: None
Mo Valley: 5 (Ill St, YSU, S Ill) changes: None
Colonial: 3 (Villanova, Towson, UNH), changes: Elon out, UNH in
Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman
Last 4 in:
Mo Valley (S Ill)
Mo Valley (YSU)
Colonial (UNH)
Southern (Wofford)
First 4 out:
Colonial (Elon)
Southland (SHSU)
Colonial (Maine)
Big Sky (Idaho)
FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
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