2015 Sagarin Says

[missingnumber7]

I hate to say this but I can see the 5 Big Sky teams over even 4 from the MVFC. Yes we don't play Ill St, but that is it. They have so many teams that I don't believe there is a single team that plays every or even most of the "good" teams in the conference. I'd say Portland St. comes the closest but if I remember right they still miss a big one. Great example is UND, they don't play either SUU or EWU, the top 2 teams in the conference right now. So if you don't play those two and you expect to get into the playoffs, you have to do better than 5-3 in conference don't you?

The only way the Big Sky gets 5 teams in is if they run out of 7 win teams to put in the playoffs.

SUU/EWU/PSU...UM and UND need to win out to be eligible and NAU has 1 quality win(EWU) and still has SUU and Sacramento left. They could legitimately only have 3 eligible teams.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

Rec... %.. % change
9-2 73.8% +14.4% from last week
8-3 26.1%. -10.3%
7-4.. 0.03%. -4.1%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@YSU.. 73.9%.. 8.5 +5.5% +2.0 change from last week
v.Mo St 99.9% 42.5 +0.1% +3.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp........ Win%.. Line
-- @YSU.. 73.9%.. 8.5
-- v.Mo St 99.9% 42.5

[bisonaudit]

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EWU road dog @ Montana and home dog versus PSU for their playoff lives.
Chatty a touchdown (and a hook) favorite at home versus The Citadel for the autobid.
Big road contests for the top of the MVFC.

[SoCalBison]

Bison move up 3 slots this week to #61.

[Hammersmith]

Oops. Got it all formatted, but forgot to actually post it.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 13 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 61	North Dakota State  	71.66				
120	Montana             	55.61	+13.34	 -3.00	-16.34	
163	Weber State         	47.04	+27.33	+27.00	 -0.33	
162	North Dakota        	47.16	+27.21	+25.00	 -2.21	
 78	South Dakota State  	67.33	 +1.62	+21.00	+19.38	
 88	Northern Iowa       	64.90	 +9.47	 +3.00	 -6.47	
138	South Dakota        	51.61	+22.76	 -3.00	-25.76	
150	Indiana State       	50.32	+18.63	+14.00	 -4.63	
118	Southern Illinois   	55.66	+13.29	 +6.00	 -7.29	
119	Western Illinois    	55.63	+18.74	+52.00	+33.26	
106	Youngstown State    	60.10	 +8.85	 +3.00	 -5.85	
225	Missouri State      	31.04	+43.33			
						
 75	Illinois State      	67.97				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-16.24	
	Home Field		 2.71

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 61	71.66	North Dakota State  			
 2	 75	67.97	Illinois State      			
 3	 78	67.33	South Dakota State  			
 4	 79	66.90	Jacksonville State  			
 5	 88	64.90	Northern Iowa       			
 6	 96	61.74	Southern Utah       			
 7	 97	61.40	William & Mary      			
 8	 98	61.29	Chattanooga         			
 9	102	60.39	James Madison       			
10	105	60.21	McNeese State       			
11	106	60.10	Youngstown State    			
12	107	60.08	Portland State      			
13	109	59.41	Harvard             			
14	110	59.02	Coastal Carolina    			
15	111	58.48	Sam Houston State   			
16	113	58.27	Dartmouth           			
17	117	55.76	The Citadel         			
18	118	55.66	Southern Illinois   			
19	119	55.63	Western Illinois    			
20	120	55.61	Montana             			
21	121	55.06	Charleston Southern 			
22	124	54.61	Richmond            			
23	125	53.75	Villanova           			
24	131	52.52	Cal Poly-SLO        			
25	132	52.30	Montana State

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	79.29	 9			
 2	SEC                 	78.20	12			
 3	PAC-12              	75.75	11			
 4	ACC                 	75.43	11			
 5	BIG TEN             	75.30	 9			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	72.79	 3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.51	 6			
 8	MWC                 	61.57	 3			
 9	MAC                 	59.88	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.57	 1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.13	 3			
12	SUN BELT            	54.42	 1			
13	BIG SKY             	48.53	 1			
14	SOUTHERN            	46.60	 1			
15	COLONIAL            	46.37	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	45.06	 1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	44.68	 1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	41.91	 1			
19	SOUTHLAND           	41.25	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	35.99	 1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.24	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.27	 1			
23	SWAC                	27.10	 1			
24	PIONEER             	24.56	 1

[westnodak93bison]

How can some think McNeese is worthy of a #1 or #2 seed if their sagarin ranking is #10 and their conference rating is horrible?

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[DM05]

How can some think McNeese is worthy of a #1 or #2 seed if their sagarin ranking is #10 and their conference rating is horrible?

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Because they haven't been beaten. It's the only argument they have. They beat a D2 team and the LSU game was canceled, so they will only have 9 wins against division 1 teams, just like NDSU, ISUr, and SDSU if all win out.

NDSU has played 6 teams in the top 20 of Sagarin, all 10 games have been against the top 45. If the committee considers SOS, it shouldn't even be close.

[Bisonwinagn]

How can some think McNeese is worthy of a #1 or #2 seed if their sagarin ranking is #10 and their conference rating is horrible?

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Nobody thinks they're worthy, but we've seen in the past the shiny record makes a difference in seeding.

[THEsocalledfan]

Nobody thinks they're worthy, but we've seen in the past the shiny record makes a difference in seeding.

But, thankfully, money should win out. NDSU has that on their side; I just can't see the committee denying a top 2 seed as they will slit their own throat financially if they do, and any objective measure you look at, put subjective ones like polls give NDSU all the argument they need.

[Bisonator98]

How can some think McNeese is worthy of a #1 or #2 seed if their sagarin ranking is #10 and their conference rating is horrible?

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Why sweat it they'll probably lose their first PO game anyway.