2015 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

9-2 59.4% +17.0% from last week
8-3 36.4%... -6.2%
7-4.. 4.2%.. -9.4%
6-5.. 0.01%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
v.W Ill. 87.0% 15.5 +2.5% +2.0 change from last week
@YSU.. 68.4%. 6.5. -1.1%. -0.5
v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0 +0.2% +3.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
-- @YSU.. 68.4%.. 6.5
-- v.W Ill. 87.0%. 15.5
-- v.Mo St 99.8% 39.0

[bisonaudit]

Slide1.jpgSlide2.JPG

Ill St v. SDSU
McNeese v. SHSU

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's 2015 Week 12 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 64	North Dakota State  	71.37				
129	Montana             	52.75	+15.86	 -3.00	-18.86	
162	Weber State         	47.30	+26.83	+27.00	 +0.17	
170	North Dakota        	45.11	+29.02	+25.00	 -4.02	
 76	South Dakota State  	67.12	 +1.49	+21.00	+19.51	
 87	Northern Iowa       	64.25	 +9.88	 +3.00	 -6.88	
142	South Dakota        	51.62	+22.51	 -3.00	-25.51	
144	Indiana State       	51.11	+17.50	+14.00	 -3.50	
116	Southern Illinois   	56.80	+11.81	 +6.00	 -5.81	
122	Western Illinois    	54.65	+19.48	+52.00	+32.52	
106	Youngstown State    	59.97	 +8.64			
226	Missouri State      	31.83	+42.30			
						
 81	Illinois State      	66.54				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-12.38	
	Home Field		 2.76

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 64	71.37	North Dakota State  			
 2	 76	67.12	South Dakota State  			
 3	 80	66.61	Jacksonville State  			
 4	 81	66.54	Illinois State      			
 5	 87	64.25	Northern Iowa       			
 6	 90	63.23	Harvard             			
 7	 95	62.36	Southern Utah       			
 8	 99	61.25	James Madison       			
 9	101	60.77	William & Mary      			
10	102	60.76	Chattanooga         			
11	105	60.31	McNeese State       			
12	106	59.97	Youngstown State    			
13	110	59.12	Portland State      			
14	111	59.06	Coastal Carolina    			
15	113	57.98	Dartmouth           			
16	115	57.40	Sam Houston State   			
17	116	56.80	Southern Illinois   			
18	118	56.00	The Citadel         			
19	120	55.36	Charleston Southern 			
20	121	55.02	Richmond            			
21	122	54.65	Western Illinois    			
22	126	53.38	Villanova           			
23	127	53.13	Eastern Washington  			
24	129	52.75	Montana             			
25	131	52.53	NC A&T

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	79.55	 9			
 2	SEC                 	78.11	13			
 3	ACC                 	75.73	11			
 4	PAC-12              	75.49	11			
 5	BIG TEN             	75.33	10			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	74.05	 3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.42	 6			
 8	MWC                 	61.19	 4			
 9	MAC                 	59.66	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.45	 1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.39	 3			
12	SUN BELT            	54.57	 1			
13	BIG SKY             	48.69	 1			
14	SOUTHERN            	46.66	 1			
15	COLONIAL            	46.30	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	45.08	 1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	44.53	 1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	41.71	 1			
19	SOUTHLAND           	41.47	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	36.25	 1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.53	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	31.94	 1			
23	SWAC                	27.35	 1			
24	PIONEER             	24.61	 1

[Professor Chaos]

Wow, Sagarin's system apparently really likes it when you outperform it's rating by 32+ points.

[DIBISON]

Every MVFC team is ranked higher than UND except for Missouri St. What does that tell you about the Big Sky? Then there are some media types that are projecting 5 Big sky teams in the playoffs!!

[bisonaudit]

Wow, Sagarin's system apparently really likes it when you outperform it's rating by 32+ points.

36.5 from the pre-game ratings. And we ate up over half of the deficit on hammersmith's total difference metric. Which is a way of saying the model thinks this week's rating for NDSU is a better fit for the data than last week. A negative number still implies our rating may be a bit puffed up, though.

[stevdock]

Every MVFC team is ranked higher than UND except for Missouri St. What does that tell you about the Big Sky? Then there are some media types that are projecting 5 Big sky teams in the playoffs!!

I hate to say this but I can see the 5 Big Sky teams over even 4 from the MVFC. Yes we don't play Ill St, but that is it. They have so many teams that I don't believe there is a single team that plays every or even most of the "good" teams in the conference. I'd say Portland St. comes the closest but if I remember right they still miss a big one. Great example is UND, they don't play either SUU or EWU, the top 2 teams in the conference right now. So if you don't play those two and you expect to get into the playoffs, you have to do better than 5-3 in conference don't you?

[wagsabison]

The leader of the Big Sky conference lost to SDSU 55-10...

[westnodak93bison]

The leader of the Big Sky conference lost to SDSU 55-10...

But they blew out Brevard College 55-7

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[RedRiver]

I hate to say this but I can see the 5 Big Sky teams over even 4 from the MVFC. Yes we don't play Ill St, but that is it. They have so many teams that I don't believe there is a single team that plays every or even most of the "good" teams in the conference. I'd say Portland St. comes the closest but if I remember right they still miss a big one. Great example is UND, they don't play either SUU or EWU, the top 2 teams in the conference right now. So if you don't play those two and you expect to get into the playoffs, you have to do better than 5-3 in conference don't you?

Not going to happen. That conference has no proof in the pudding. The Big Sky did absolutely nothing in the playoffs last year and this year they are what 1-7 against the MVFC. A 7-4 BS team does not deserve the playoffs unless they are in the top 3 of the conference standings.