2015 Sagarin Says

[Mr Meaty]

If Sagarin were the selection committee half the playoff field would be from the MVFC and the Big Sky right now.

5 of the 8 seeds MVFC. Big Sky 5 teams playing the first weekend.

That sounds right for MVFC, seems high for BS but they do have some surprise teams this year.

[RedRiver]

That sounds right for MVFC, seems high for BS but they do have some surprise teams this year.

Way too high for the Big Sky, surprise teams or not. Look at the conference performance record the last two years for the playoffs and occ games.

[stevdock]

Way too high for the Big Sky, surprise teams or not. Look at the conference performance record the last two years for the playoffs and occ games.

Do remember one of their teams beat the #1 team in the nation.

[Mr Pep Band]

Do remember one of their teams beat the #1 team in the nation.

And has since tanked....

[bisonaudit]

Way too high for the Big Sky, surprise teams or not. Look at the conference performance record the last two years for the playoffs and occ games.

Last and 3rd to last at-large teams are Big Sky. Bubblelicious. Give it a week or two, could be a completely different story.

[#1BISONFAN ASHLEY]

And has since tanked....

They still got a chance. If they go into that selection Sunday with a 7-4 record, the committee will recognize that win against us.

[bisonaudit]

And has since tanked....

They wouldn't be one of the 5 today.

[Hammersmith]

Gains from the SDSU game now erased. Back to 70. ISUr at 72, SDSU at 73. UNI hanging onto the top ten by a whisker.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 9 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 70	North Dakota State  	68.39				
144	Montana             	51.45	+14.28	 -3.00	-17.28	
164	Weber State         	46.20	+24.85	+27.00	 +2.15	
172	North Dakota        	44.78	+26.27	+25.00	 -1.27	
 73	South Dakota State  	67.59	 -1.86	+21.00	+22.86	
102	Northern Iowa       	59.97	+11.08	 +3.00	 -8.08	
150	South Dakota        	50.06	+20.99	 -3.00	-23.99	
129	Indiana State       	53.64	+12.09			
117	Southern Illinois   	56.88	 +8.85			
111	Western Illinois    	58.23	+12.82			
101	Youngstown State    	60.72	 +5.01			
206	Missouri State      	36.53	+34.52			
						
 72	Illinois State      	67.87				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-25.61	
	Home Field		 2.66

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 70	68.39	North Dakota State  			
 2	 72	67.87	Illinois State      			
 3	 73	67.59	South Dakota State  			
 4	 85	64.72	James Madison       			
 5	 88	63.80	Jacksonville State  			
 6	 94	62.65	Harvard             			
 7	 95	62.37	Chattanooga         			
 8	 97	61.56	Coastal Carolina    			
 9	101	60.72	Youngstown State    			
10	102	59.97	Northern Iowa       			
11	103	59.83	Sam Houston State   			
12	106	59.27	William & Mary      			
13	107	58.99	McNeese State       			
14	108	58.95	Dartmouth           			
15	109	58.77	Southern Utah       			
16	110	58.70	Portland State      			
17	111	58.23	Western Illinois    			
18	115	57.92	Eastern Washington  			
19	117	56.88	Southern Illinois   			
20	120	56.17	Eastern Kentucky    			
21	127	53.90	Richmond            			
22	128	53.77	The Citadel         			
23	129	53.64	Indiana State       			
24	135	52.92	Samford             			
25	137	52.69	Villanova

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	80.00	 9			
 2	SEC                 	78.93	14			
 3	PAC-12              	76.26	11			
 4	ACC                 	75.81	12			
 5	BIG TEN             	75.75	11			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	74.69	 3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.07	 7			
 8	MWC                 	60.54	 3			
 9	MAC                 	59.25	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.86	 1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.94	 4			
12	SUN BELT            	54.17	 3			
13	BIG SKY             	47.59	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	46.59	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	46.20	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.86	 1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	43.84	 1			
18	SOUTHLAND           	41.67	 1			
19	BIG SOUTH           	40.88	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	35.36	 1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.62	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	31.88	 1			
23	SWAC                	27.20	 1			
24	PIONEER             	23.85	 1

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

9-2 32.2%. -12.7% from last week
8-3 43.0% +22.4%
7-4 20.4% +16.8%
6-5.. 4.1%. +3.9%
5-6.. 0.3%. +0.3%
4-7.. 0.002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@Ind St 81.5% 12.0. -7.6%. -4.5 change from last week
@S Ill.. 74.4%.. 9.0 +3.5% +1.5
v.W Ill. 82.9% 13.0. -6.7%. -4.0
@YSU.. 64.5%.. 5.0 +8.2% +3.0
v.Mo St 99.4% 34.5. -0.4%. -5.5

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
-- @YSU... 64.5%. 5.0
-- @S Ill... 74.4%. 9.0
-- @Ind St 81.5% 12.0
-- v.W Ill.. 82.9% 13.0
-- v.Mo St 99.4% 34.5

[bisonaudit]

Slide1.jpgSlide2.JPG
A bunch of 2 score games coming up this week for the top teams.