Re: Sagarin says
Originally Posted by
MrSnuffleupagus
This makes it sound like if Sagarin predicts they will win 7-0 and they win 14-0 they are performing 200% better than expected.
/math
It works on the scoring margin so winning by 14 instead of 7 would exceed expectations by 7 points, but the trick is the standard deviation of scoring margins around the average is roughly 14 points so outperforming in a single game by 7 compared to expectations is only 19% better (half a standard deviation in one direction) than previously anticipated.
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