2015 Sagarin Says

[MNLonghorn10]

How accurate has this predictor been this year on the outcomes?

I'm 6/6 using his predictor in bowl games so far. Tied for first in a Texas group.


Almost bit it on the app st game but I don't think it counts for the 2 defensive tds, safety, 2 missed fgs that app gave to Ohio.

I'm sticking with it

[tony]

Does Sagarin take into account a team being from the Southeast in the finals? If not, invalid.

FiFY. Apparently, it really matters that NDSU is finally playing a SE team in the championship rather than the second round, quarters or semis.

[mnriverbison]

a 2:1 odds to win a nuetral site game is uh, pretty good. Like, may as well sneak champagne into the stadium good.

[Hammersmith]

Guess I forgot about this for a couple weeks.

Sagarin's 2015 Playoff Championship Prediction

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 51	North Dakota State  	74.79				
111	Montana             	58.09	+14.01	 -3.00	-17.01	
165	Weber State         	47.61	+29.87	+27.00	 -2.87	
142	North Dakota        	50.39	+27.09	+25.00	 -2.09	
 90	South Dakota State  	63.91	 +8.19	+21.00	+12.81	
 78	Northern Iowa       	67.03	+10.45	 +3.00	 -7.45	
146	South Dakota        	50.07	+27.41	 -3.00	-30.41	
134	Indiana State       	51.82	+20.28	+14.00	 -6.28	
122	Southern Illinois   	54.81	+17.29	 +6.00	-11.29	
114	Western Illinois    	57.35	+20.13	+52.00	+31.87	
110	Youngstown State    	58.19	+13.91	 +3.00	-10.91	
223	Missouri State      	31.39	+46.09	+55.00	 +8.91	
						
111	Montana             	58.09	+19.39	+31.00	+11.61	
 78	Northern Iowa       	67.03	+10.45	+10.00	 -0.45	
100	Richmond            	60.76	+16.72	+26.00	 +9.28	
						
 64	Jacksonville State  	70.13	 +4.66			
						
					Total Diff:	-14.28	
	Home Field		 2.69

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 51	74.79	North Dakota State  			
 2	 64	70.13	Jacksonville State  			
 3	 77	67.25	Illinois State      			
 4	 78	67.03	Northern Iowa       			
 5	 90	63.91	South Dakota State  			
 6	 95	62.31	Chattanooga         			
 7	100	60.76	Richmond            			
 8	101	60.39	Sam Houston State   			
 9	104	59.77	Southern Utah       			
10	105	59.66	Harvard             			
11	108	58.42	McNeese State       			
12	109	58.31	Portland State      			
13	110	58.19	Youngstown State    			
14	111	58.09	Montana             			
15	112	57.81	Dartmouth           			
16	113	57.75	James Madison       			
17	114	57.35	Western Illinois    			
18	116	57.06	The Citadel         			
19	117	56.69	Coastal Carolina    			
20	120	56.32	William & Mary      			
21	121	56.25	Charleston Southern 			
22	122	54.81	Southern Illinois   			
23	126	52.81	Villanova           			
24	127	52.69	Samford             			
25	128	52.56	Western Carolina

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	79.14	7			
 2	SEC                 	77.54	11			
 3	PAC-12              	75.74	10			
 4	BIG TEN             	75.47	9			
 5	ACC                 	75.34	9			 
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	73.19	3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.61	5			
 8	MWC                 	61.14	1			
 9	MAC                 	59.83	3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.33	1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.45	2			
12	SUN BELT            	54.34	1			
13	BIG SKY             	48.36	1			
14	SOUTHERN            	46.82	1			
15	COLONIAL            	45.90	1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	45.26	1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	44.48	1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	42.48	1			
19	SOUTHLAND           	40.41	1			
20	PATRIOT             	36.09	1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.30	1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.59	1			
23	SWAC                	26.88	1			
24	PIONEER             	25.01	1

[IzzyFlexion]

Ok all of you math wizards................
Not that it matters but, how could the computer say that NDSU would be the 3rd team in the MAC but 1st in the Mountain West if the MW is a point and a half higher than the MAC?

Again.........don't really care about ranking, just curious how the math works there.

As you (whomever) answer.........please keep in mind who is asking dat der queschun.

[RasterImage]

how could the computer say that NDSU would be the 3rd team in the MAC but 1st in the Mountain West if the MW is a point and a half higher than the MAC?

I think that would be a case where the MAC has 3 good teams and the rest well.... stink, where as the MW is top to bottom more even, but the best team is not ranked as high as NDSU.

[thebootfitter]

Ok all of you math wizards................
Not that it matters but, how could the computer say that NDSU would be the 3rd team in the MAC but 1st in the Mountain West if the MW is a point and a half higher than the MAC?

Again.........don't really care about ranking, just curious how the math works there.

As you (whomever) answer.........please keep in mind who is asking dat der queschun.

I haven't looked at all the numbers to confirm that it is actually correct, but I'll assume that it is.

The simplest way to explain it might be that all of the teams in the Mountain West are a bit better than the teams in the MAC overall. Enough that the average for the MWC is a bit higher. However, the MAC has a couple teams that are standing out above the others in the conference, which happen to be rated higher than NDSU. The MWC, on the other hand, doesn't have any teams rated higher than NDSU, but they also don't have as many teams rated as poorly as the MAC.

Does that make sense? The actual formula for calculating the conference rating is just slightly more complex (something like dropping the highest and lowest scores before calculating the average), but ultimately it is a measure of the average team strength in the conference.

I think that would be a case where the MAC has 3 good teams and the rest well.... stink, where as the MW is top to bottom more even, but the best team is not ranked as high as NDSU.

Beat me to it. And probably said it more in Izzy's terms anyway.

[thebootfitter]

a 2:1 odds to win a nuetral site game is uh, pretty good. Like, may as well sneak champagne into the stadium good.

Keep in mind that there is a pretty wide standard deviation in these figures. I won't bet against the Bison, but you might not want to be sneaking the champagne into the stadium quite yet.

With a roughly 14 point standard deviation, a <5 point difference in Sagarin ratings means there's still a pretty good shot at Jacksonville State having more points at the end of the game. I won't be surprised at all to see a game like last year against Ill State. Though, I also wouldn't be surprised if we keep Jax St <20 and we score >30.

[IzzyFlexion]

I think that would be a case where the MAC has 3 good teams and the rest well.... stink, where as the MW is top to bottom more even, but the best team is not ranked as high as NDSU.

I haven't looked at all the numbers to confirm that it is actually correct, but I'll assume that it is.

The simplest way to explain it might be that all of the teams in the Mountain West are a bit better than the teams in the MAC overall. Enough that the average for the MWC is a bit higher. However, the MAC has a couple teams that are standing out above the others in the conference, which happen to be rated higher than NDSU. The MWC, on the other hand, doesn't have any teams rated higher than NDSU, but they also don't have as many teams rated as poorly as the MAC.

Does that make sense? The actual formula for calculating the conference rating is just slightly more complex (something like dropping the highest and lowest scores before calculating the average), but ultimately it is a measure of the average team strength in the conference.



Beat me to it. And probably said it more in Izzy's terms anyway.

Keep in mind that there is a pretty wide standard deviation in these figures. I won't bet against the Bison, but you might not want to be sneaking the champagne into the stadium quite yet.

With a roughly 14 point standard deviation, a <5 point difference in Sagarin ratings means there's still a pretty good shot at Jacksonville State having more points at the end of the game. I won't be surprised at all to see a game like last year against Ill State. Though, I also wouldn't be surprised if we keep Jax St <20 and we score >30.

dooly noted......thanky

[Hammersmith]

I think that would be a case where the MAC has 3 good teams and the rest well.... stink, where as the MW is top to bottom more even, but the best team is not ranked as high as NDSU.

And NDSU would be #1 in the MWC by a hair.

51. NDSU
52. Boise State
56. San Diego State

I don't know if this visual helps at all, but you can see the MWC(red) is grouped a little north of center. While the MAC(blue) has more outliers. And the MAC has more bottom outliers than top.

41 MAC
44 MAC
51 NDSU
52 MWC
56 MWC
67 MAC
71 MWC
75 MWC
76 MAC
82 MAC
91 MWC
94 MAC
96 MWC middle MVC team
99 MAC middle MAC team
102 MWC middle MVC team
107 MWC
119 MAC
123 MWC
124 MWC
131 MAC
138 MAC
156 MWC
158 MAC
160 MAC
166 MWC
186 MAC