2015 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

Do the numbers take into account Wentz being out?

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No. All they consider are opponent, location, score and how recent the result is.

[westnodak93bison]

How many points is Carson worth?

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[bisonaudit]

How many points is Carson worth?

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More than anyone else on the roster but probably less than is commonly believed.

[bisonaudit]

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Next two weeks are going to tell the tale for Jax St.

[Mayville Bison]

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Next two weeks are going to tell the tale for Jax St.

If JSU drops one and assuming UTC loses to Florida State, how does that affect each of them? Both drop considerably? Probably a better question to ask in a non-sagarin thread

[bisonaudit]

If JSU drops one and assuming UTC loses to Florida State, how does that affect each of them? Both drop considerably? Probably a better question to ask in a non-sagarin thread

UTC v. FSU I think is going to be all about how close they can keep it whether you're talking about their Sagarin rating or their position in the polls. Sagarin has that at 26 points at the moment. If they keep it closer than that, all else equal, their rating would tend to improve. If they get thumped it would tend to go down.

Similarly Jacksonville State is favored by 9 and 8.5 the next two weeks. If they win by less than that it'll put downward pressure on their rating. More impressive showings would tend to push their rating up. People tend to do the same sort of thing with the eye test, but are prone to overreact to recent events. Of course people also know when a team's star quarterback is out for the year with an ankle injury while, at least this computer model is completely ignorant of those sorts of facts.

[Hammersmith]

Better late than never?

Sagarin's 2015 Week 10 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 70	North Dakota State  	68.76				
133	Montana             	53.15	+12.90	 -3.00	-15.90	
170	Weber State         	44.99	+26.48	+27.00	 +0.52	
176	North Dakota        	43.16	+28.31	+25.00	 -3.31	
 83	South Dakota State  	65.38	 +0.67	+21.00	+20.33	
 94	Northern Iowa       	62.03	 +9.44	 +3.00	 -6.44	
150	South Dakota        	50.78	+20.69	 -3.00	-23.69	
136	Indiana State       	52.81	+13.24	+14.00	 +0.76	
114	Southern Illinois   	58.03	 +8.02			
117	Western Illinois    	57.74	+13.73			
108	Youngstown State    	59.16	 +6.89			
213	Missouri State      	35.26	+36.21			
						
 67	Illinois State      	69.09				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-27.73	
	Home Field		 2.71

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 67	69.09	Illinois State      			
 2	 70	68.76	North Dakota State  			
 3	 83	65.38	South Dakota State  			
 4	 85	64.53	Harvard             			
 5	 90	62.61	Jacksonville State  			
 6	 94	62.03	Northern Iowa       			
 7	 95	61.69	Chattanooga         			
 8	 97	61.49	James Madison       			
 9	 99	60.38	Coastal Carolina    			
10	103	59.53	William & Mary      			
11	104	59.52	Southern Utah       			
12	106	59.34	Portland State      			
13	108	59.16	Youngstown State    			
14	109	59.09	Sam Houston State   			
15	110	59.05	McNeese State       			
16	114	58.03	Southern Illinois   			
17	115	57.85	Richmond            			
18	117	57.74	Western Illinois    			
19	118	57.65	Eastern Washington  			
20	120	57.06	Dartmouth           			
21	122	56.55	Eastern Kentucky    			
22	123	56.17	The Citadel         			
23	128	53.70	Montana State       			
24	133	53.15	Montana             			
25	135	52.87	Charleston Southern

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	80.07	 9			
 2	SEC                 	78.81	14			
 3	PAC-12              	75.96	11			
 4	ACC                 	75.85	12			
 5	BIG TEN             	75.61	10			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	74.50	 3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	66.92	 7			
 8	MWC                 	60.58	 4			
 9	MAC                 	59.42	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.77	 2			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.94	 3			
12	SUN BELT            	54.76	 3			
13	BIG SKY             	47.88	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	46.77	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	46.40	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.91	 1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	44.02	 1			
18	SOUTHLAND           	41.35	 1			
19	BIG SOUTH           	41.39	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	35.33	 1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.01	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	31.60	 1			
23	SWAC                	27.42	 1			
24	PIONEER             	24.40	 1

[Hammerhead]

NDSU rated higher than ISUr again.

[SDbison]

Top 3 FCS Sagarin Rankings thru 10/31/15:
66 NDSU
73 Illinois State
81 SDSU

[Hammersmith]

Eight games in and five have been to prediction(<1score), while three have been outliers(>2scores). The Valley still owns the top-25, with 80% of the conference on the list, and taking just about one-third of the top-25 spots.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 11 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 66	North Dakota State  	69.00				
132	Montana             	52.76	+13.46	 -3.00	-16.46	
168	Weber State         	45.64	+26.14	+27.00	 +0.86	
172	North Dakota        	45.10	+26.68	+25.00	 -1.68	
 81	South Dakota State  	66.26	 -0.04	+21.00	+21.04	
 96	Northern Iowa       	62.29	 +9.49	 +3.00	 -6.49	
150	South Dakota        	50.41	+21.37	 -3.00	-24.37	
128	Indiana State       	53.70	+12.52	+14.00	 +1.48	
113	Southern Illinois   	58.12	 +8.10	 +6.00	 -2.10	
118	Western Illinois    	56.52	+15.26			
106	Youngstown State    	59.76	 +6.46			
224	Missouri State      	32.88	+38.90			
						
 73	Illinois State      	67.80				
						
						
					Total Diff:	-27.72	
	Home Field		 2.78

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
 1	 66	69.00	North Dakota State  			
 2	 73	67.80	Illinois State      			
 3	 81	66.26	South Dakota State  			
 4	 85	65.25	Jacksonville State  			
 5	 86	64.76	Harvard             			
 6	 91	63.04	Chattanooga         			
 7	 96	62.29	Northern Iowa       			
 8	 99	61.61	Portland State      			
 9	100	61.37	James Madison       			
10	101	61.27	Southern Utah       			
11	104	60.36	William & Mary      			
12	106	59.76	Youngstown State    			
13	108	59.20	Sam Houston State   			
14	109	58.81	Dartmouth           			
15	110	58.24	McNeese State       			
16	112	58.14	Coastal Carolina    			
17	113	58.12	Southern Illinois   			
18	117	56.61	Richmond            			
19	118	56.52	Western Illinois    			
20	120	56.14	Eastern Washington  			
21	122	55.82	The Citadel         			
22	124	55.01	Charleston Southern 			
23	127	53.95	Eastern Kentucky    			
24	128	53.70	Indiana State       			
25	132	52.76	Montana

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
 1	BIG 12              	79.56	10			
 2	SEC                 	77.96	13			
 3	PAC-12              	75.56	11			
 4	ACC                 	75.82	11			
 5	BIG TEN             	75.16	 9			
 6	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	74.25	 3			
 7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	67.43	 6			
 8	MWC                 	60.67	 4			
 9	MAC                 	59.68	 3			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	58.76	 1			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	55.34	 3			
12	SUN BELT            	54.62	 3			
13	BIG SKY             	48.06	 1			
14	COLONIAL            	46.51	 1			
15	SOUTHERN            	46.55	 1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.99	 1			
17	IVY LEAGUE          	44.35	 1			
18	SOUTHLAND           	41.92	 1			
19	BIG SOUTH           	41.84	 1			
20	PATRIOT             	35.74	 1			
21	NORTHEAST           	34.53	 1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	31.75	 1			
23	SWAC                	27.29	 1			
24	PIONEER             	24.60	 1