2015 Sagarin Says

[TateMosersneighbor]

Gully. One word. Money.

That's it.

Gotts nailed it. We will get every chance to make the playoffs. I also don't think we will be 7-4. 9-2 is where I'm at as of now.

[bisonaudit]

Projected regular season record based on Sagarin's ratings plus 2.61 pts for a bye-week:

10-1 10.3% -5.4% from last week
9-2.. 30.1% -5.3%
8-3.. 33.7% +2.9%
7-4.. 19.0% +5.1%
6-5.... 5.8% +2.2%
5-6.... 1.0% +0.5%
4-7.... 0.1%
3-8.... 0.003%
2-9.... 0.00002%

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@SDSU. 48.0% -0.5. -4.6%.. -1.5 change from last week
v.UNI.... 72.7% 8.0. -5.0%.. -2.5
v.USD... 88.2% 16.0. -6.4%.. -6.0
@Ind St. 86.2% 14.5 +2.3%. +1.0
@S Ill.... 73.7%. 8.5. -2.7%.. -1.0
v.W Ill... 88.8% 16.5. -1.0%. -0.5
@YSU.... 60.0%. 3.5 -15.2%. -5.5
v.Mo St.. 99.1% 32.5 +3.3% +9.0

Games by projected order of difficulty:
Opp..... Win%.. Line
--. @SDSU.. 48.0% -0.5
--. @YSU.... 60.0%. 3.5
+1 v.UNI.... 72.7%. 8.0
-1. @S Ill... 73.7%.. 8.5
--. @Ind St. 86.2% 14.5
+1 v.USD... 88.2% 16.0
-1. v.W Ill... 88.8% 16.5
--. v.Mo St.. 99.1% 32.5

[Strategery]

Opp..... Win%.. Line
@SDSU. 48.0% -0.5. -4.6%.. -1.5 change from last week

First game since K State that we haven't been favored?

[Professor Chaos]

First game since K State that we haven't been favored?

I'd say so. Probably the first FCS opponent that Sagarin has favored over NDSU since SHSU in the 2011 title game?

[bisonaudit]

I'd say so. Probably the first FCS opponent that Sagarin has favored over NDSU since SHSU in the 2011 title game?

NDSU was a small favorite v. SHSU in 2011. 4 points on a neutral field.

[Bison_Pyro]

NDSU was a small favorite v. SHSU in 2011. 4 points on a neutral field.

do they realize that the game in Brookings might be more of a neutral field...

[gotts]

do they realize that the game in Brookings might be more of a neutral field...

You mean natural field? With all the grazing and such?

[Hammersmith]

Big (not really all that)Fluffy slips to 3rd among FCS conferences. And SDSU edges us out of the #1 spot.

Sagarin's 2015 Week 4 Predictions

						
Rank    Team                   Sagarin Predict  Result  Diff						
 70	North Dakota State  	68.36				
126	Montana             	55.86	 +9.85	 -3.00	-12.85	
167	Weber State         	46.76	+24.25	+27.00	 +2.75	
186	North Dakota        	42.76	+28.25	+25.00	 -3.25	
 67	South Dakota State  	69.00	 -3.29			
 93	Northern Iowa       	62.87	 +8.14			
133	South Dakota        	54.94	+16.07			
151	Indiana State       	50.97	+14.74			
120	Southern Illinois   	57.17	 +8.54			
136	Western Illinois    	54.53	+16.48			
 98	Youngstown State    	62.29	 +3.42			
202	Missouri State      	38.58	+32.43			
						
 88	Illinois State      	64.10				
						
						
				Total Diff:	-13.35	
	Home Field	2.65

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team						
1	67	69.00	South Dakota State  			
2	70	68.36	North Dakota State  			
3	75	67.31	Jacksonville State  			
4	87	64.11	Chattanooga         			
5	88	64.10	Illinois State      			
6	93	62.87	Northern Iowa       			
7	97	62.44	Coastal Carolina    			
8	98	62.29	Youngstown State    			
9	99	62.08	Eastern Washington  			
10	109	60.81	James Madison       			
11	112	60.28	Sam Houston State   			
12	116	58.41	William & Mary      			
13	117	58.21	Villanova           			
14	118	57.88	Samford             			
15	120	57.17	Southern Illinois   			
16	121	56.79	Montana State       			
17	123	56.44	Liberty             			
18	124	56.25	Stony Brook         			
19	126	55.86	Montana             			
20	128	55.76	Harvard             			
21	129	55.72	Portland State      			
22	132	55.01	Cal Poly-SLO        			
23	133	54.94	South Dakota        			
24	134	54.93	McNeese State       			
25	136	54.53	Western Illinois

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Rank    Conference             CntMean NDSU						
1	BIG 12              	80.63	10			
2	SEC                 	79.45	14			
3	ACC                 	77.45	14			
4	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	76.55	3			
5	PAC-12              	76.15	10			
6	BIG TEN             	76.12	11			
7	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	65.20	5			
8	MWC                 	61.64	3			
9	MAC                 	59.81	4			
10	MISSOURI VALLEY     	59.02	2			
11	CONFERENCE USA      	58.71	4			
12	SUN BELT            	57.26	1			
13	COLONIAL            	48.48	1			
14	BIG SKY             	48.29	1			
15	SOUTHERN            	47.51	1			
16	OHIO VALLEY         	44.61	1			
17	SOUTHLAND           	43.09	1			
18	BIG SOUTH           	41.58	1			
19	IVY LEAGUE          	39.98	1			
20	NORTHEAST           	36.69	1			
21	PATRIOT             	34.47	1			
22	MID-EASTERN         	32.24	1			
23	SWAC                	27.97	1			
24	PIONEER             	22.80	1

[No_Skill]

I think SDSU deserves the #1 at this point. They look really solid this year. That game is huge!

[westnodak93bison]

I think SDSU deserves the #1 at this point. They look really solid this year. That game is huge!

Pfffft

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